osu 63, Michigan 39

[WM Wolverine]

Good conspiracy theory.

[Rocky Bleier]

They do exist. John Wiles Booth was part of a conspiracy.


I see now this was discussed in the Ohio thread.

[WingsFan]

The great Bill Bonds

[Jeff Buchanan]

I'd like to thank talent for his Buchanan like, wordy post on osu's weaknesses. Revealing ..... to anyone that has not watched the shit storm that is osu football this season ...... which, incidentally, started not in September, but rather in July with McCarthy's infamous tweet about ZS. Distracting and it's clear ufm's absence, physically and mentally hurt the team.

Anyway, it deserves an equally long and wordy Buchanan-gram at the urging of AA who seems to like my posts. NB, this is NOT about officiating. talent, you can therefor consider it read-worthy and discuss.

That ufm has drawn up some plays for Haskins to run is an interesting development and probably because M has demonstrated a remarkable inability to stop statue like QBs who also run from running ..... well, except for Hornibrook, Lewerke and McSorely, all of them dinged up. Rutgers with Sitkowski and IU with Ramsey got some chunk plays. Both of those nerdowell bottom dwellers in the BT also got some nice running plays off vacated outside or inside lanes with no S help.

Haskins isn't dinged up assuming he hasn't gotten hurt in practice trying to fulfill the new roll ufm has asked him to fulfill. He will be a threat to run. Mark it down. That is because of Dr. Blitz and his mad blitz schemes that vacate areas where a good OC will draw up and practice plays that exploit that (and even bad ones because Debord saw this weakness too). Day is good and so is ufm. Run plays by haskins will be in the play-book for M. Per talent, he also seems more likely to break a collapsing pocket and run instead of stand there and take a coverage sack. Frankly I'm doubtful that kind of thing, bailing due to coverage, will prove useful. Guys that don't come in as tuck it and run guys, don't know how to handle it, aren't likely to suddenly become that guy. He's more likely to get hurt not knowing how to handle it. That's not to say there won't be some RPOs or RO for haskins. There will be.

Michigan will counter. With zone on the back-end that helps to confuse Haskins a bit. What this means to Dr. Blitz is, on standard downs, usually one high with (usually) Kinnel in that hi spot and Metellus asked to make the calls - run/pass - from about 8-10 yards based on what he sees from the opponent's formation or as a drop back occurs. Sometimes those roles switch but I think Metellus is better at making the calls, dropping into deep coverage as needed, and Kinnel is better (only marginally) just covering deep as a S if need be. Metellus is somewhat better but not lock down good at defending crossing routes in the situation where the offense gets him isolated on a slot receiver. Forget trying these slants with Long or Hill covering. Low percentage for completion with them in lcok down mode and they will be.

M's LB play also needs to be explained in the context of runs for the QBs or RBs or end around, sweep or jet type plays. Bush is king of the edge. osu may get some run here but not much and not in a way that allows osu to drive the field. It's going to take a combo of busts by Bush and the Ss to break a big play here. Won't happen.

The thing that has gotten M in trouble of late is the depth to which the DEs are getting into the back field in pursuit of the evolving play. That in combination with aggressive assignment and play of the LBs leaves lanes open to exploitation in the OZ run game and open areas of the field made that way by vacating LBs - easy space for receivers to run into and for haskins to throw to. It's a trade-off to a certain degree. In that osu's DL won't stand up well to a 4 man rush, out of the 3 or even 4 man fronts Brown deploys on the DL, Brown shouldn't need to the kind of aggressive LB play into the gaps he so often uses and cost M some big plays v. IU. I agree with talent though. Brown will bring max pressure on haskins until he sees that haskins can react correctly to it by keeping and running it or beating the rush and hitting those slants. Good chess match here between Day and Brown.

haskins throwing deep shots....... go ahead, make my day. If haskins had Ramsey's unexpected and newly found skill to hit deep back shoulder fades then fine. He lacks the accuracy on the deep ball to do that. At least to date he has. Maybe he suddenly becomes a thrower like Ramsey who hit tight windows. Idon't think so. He's more likely to miss that kind of throw, getting it too far outside wasting a play on an incompletion or getting it too far inside making an INT from either Hill or Long likely. Under-thrown balls - something I have seen haskins do - are an easy undercutting INT by the S rolling into double coverage, a bait tactic Brown has deployed.

Inside running game? osu has to have one in the red-zone and to date, they haven't albeit somewhat improved v. Maryland. That's Maryland. M is more than capable of stopping it without a lot of exotic run blitzes. Brown might get greedy on standard downs doing that and it would be a mistake as haskins will read it and throw a dart for a first down or TD to Hill or Campbell or even Dobbins/Webber running screens in space against those blitzes. I think this is an obvious mistake for Brown or his players making the blitz call. I'm hopeful, if not fully confident, that won't happen. Stay in your lanes. Neither of osu backs are like the last two M faced and got burned a couple of times by them. And let me be clear. Both osu's backs are good but it's my take that neither are particularly good at cutting back like Blackshear and Pacheko turned out to be v. M. Neither are good at making a two yard gain into 4 like Scott of IU was. JMO in limited observation. More importantly, osu's resume on the OL shows they are not good run blocking. I suppose that could change but the ooutlook isn't good in that department.

I don't think I need to cover M's O v. osu's D. Maybe some salient points:

• In 2017 M's offense wasn't awful and that was running behind a shitty OL coached by Drevno and Frey and John O'Korn at QB. They were in the game until O'Korn, with the opportunity to become a legend at M by managing a winning drive, threw a pic. Not this year. Better OL, better QB ..... WAY better.
• Harbaugh has the talent and the coaching to be innovative on offense like he did not have in 2017. The play book is much more robust. I feel pretty good about the likelihood that there will be plenty of plays that are not on film that will get run effectively.
• Red zone inefficiency? See above. Also see Shea Patterson not connecting on throws to Black, Collins, DPJ, Bell or any of three very good TEs. That's been the most frustrating things in games where M has obtained the opponent's a red zone but failed to get a TD. Patterson has to make opponents play for committing to stopping the run by pinching LBs inside and bringing Ss up. There are times when the offense, for a variety of reasons - missed blocks by TEs, not picking up a run blitz and audibling out of it, missed protection blocks by RBs. That has to stop and if it doesn't The Game will be a lot closer than it should be.

If M solves the red zone issue and gets TDs instead of FGs, M wins going away .... something like 38-20. If not, it's close in the 4th with a chance for osu to pull out a win. I'll go with something like 24-21 with time left in the 4th for osu to tie it in regulation with a FG and lose it in 2OT, 38-31.

[Tom W]

Yep. Osu will get the lead early, and, even as bad as their defense has been, they'll be scoring touchdowns while Harbaugh unleashes his new weapon, Moody. I was leaning toward victory for Michigan two weeks ago, but after what I've seen from Kinnel, Metellus, Watson, and Hill as they try to stay with fast RBs and WRs,

I would be a LOT more worried if those were the guys that got stapled for 51 from MARYLAND.. and if our coach was the one that was about to go to full "Scanners" mode on the sidelines.

Yes, ohio is still the evil empire, and only Alabama has done a better job of cornering the recruiting market of late, but they've got issues that have been exposed by teams with lesser talent than the one that is coming to Columbus this week. Michigan has the talent, coaching and motivation to destroy them.

And as for the officials, 2016 should have served as a notice to the Conference. If there's going to be any ohio bias in the striped shirts then Schissel should come down and fire Manual on the spot and then call Delany and tell him that Michigan is quitting the Big Ten.

This game is just set up for Michigan to roll,

[drok]

Jesus Jeff, took you two paragraphs to clear your throat.

[WingsFan]

The first time in Urban Meyer's 7 seasons that OSU has been a home underdog.

The first time an Urban Meyer coached team will be a home underdog since 2003 when he was at Utah.

Only the 7th time in Urban Meyer's time in Columbus that OSU has been an underdog period. They have won the previous 6 games straight up.

It will be the first time Michigan has been favored since 2011.

Note: 2015, Michigan was a 1 point underdog (2 sources), but I have seen others say they were a 1 point favorite. So that game was a virtual pick 'em, but officially at game time, Michigan was +1.


****Key to this game besides Chase not playing or not full speed (if he dont play we're fucked)

Is if osu can stop Shea running the ball - Both scrambling and a shit load of RO runs.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is an excellent breakdown of how osu wins by Bill Connelly using his own S&P+ rankings and breaking some of the more esoteric aspects of it to detail how osu can manufacture a win by exploiting some of M's weaknesses.

I find it consistent with what both talent and I have offered as game break downs except one aspect that has to be, as Connelly asserts, concerning for Michigan fans.

Michigan falls behind schedule a lot:


Chase Young and linebacker Tuf Borland has combined for 37 run stuffs. Big plays have been a massive issue for the Buckeyes, but play-to-play run defense has not.

Anthony McFarlandif Ohio State can hold Michigan to just a couple of gashes, the Buckeyes can force a lot of passing-downs throws by Shea Patterson and a few three-and-outs.


https://www.sbnation.com/college-foo...eview-analysis

Here's where I take issue with Connelly. In the last two games v. Maryland and IU, M's offense was purposefully limited for a variety of reasons that are well substantiated. IOW, I don't think we saw its capacity to avoid 3rd and long and I don't think we saw M's actual capacity to move the chains if it is 3rd and long. I'd also bet if we looked at big plays against those three opponents we'd find plenty of them. I'd like to take M's revenge tour wins v. Wisconsin, MSU and PSU - all stout defenders equivalent to if not better than osu's - and look at look at big plays, marginal passing down efficiency, success rate for third and short and opportunity rate. In those three games, M outscored Wisky, MSU and PSU, 101-27. I suspect all four of those measures Connelly points out as M weaknesses are wildly misleading in light of Revenge Tour games, osu is the fourth team on M's Revenge Tour. Just saying.

[Detroit Dan]

Michigan is better and will win.

1. Common Opponents
   1. Nebraska
      1. Michigan 56 - Nebraska 10
      2. Ohio State 36 - Nebraska 31
   2. Maryland
      1. Michigan 42 - Maryland 21
      2. Ohio State 52 - Maryland 51 (OT)
   3. Michigan State
      1. Michigan 21 - Michigan State 7
      2. Ohio State 26 - Michigan State 6
   4. Penn State
      1. Michigan 42 - Penn State 7
      2. Ohio State 27 - Penn State 26
   5. Rutgers
      1. Michigan 42 - Rutgers 7
      2. Ohio State 52 - Rutgers 3
   6. Indiana
      1. Michigan 31 - Indiana 20
      2. Ohio State 49 - Indiana 26
2. Losses
   1. Notre Dame (currently ranked #3) 24 - Michigan 17 (at Notre Dame)
   2. Purdue (unranked, losing record) 49 - Ohio State 20 (at Purdue)
3. Statistics
   1. S&P+ Overall
      1. Michigan #4
      2. Ohio State #8
   2. S&P+ Offense
      1. Ohio State #5
      2. Michigan #23
   3. S&P+ Defense
      1. Michigan #2
      2. Ohio State #38

My prediction: Michigan 34 - Ohio State 24 (If Michigan loses, it will be because of referees.)

[iam416]

Anthony McFarland

It really was a total encapsulation of OSU's defense. They give up 155 yards in the first 3 plays. Pigrome drops in 2 perfect bombs (I mean...I'm not even sure Peyton Ramsey could have thrown better balls). And OSU is just stupid on a punt.

I'd be stunned if M RBs didn't have at least 2 50+ yard runs. I also think OSU can put M behind the sticks on occasion, but that Patterson is a pretty good answer to that.

[WM Wolverine]

Yeah, the talent should be there on Ohio's defense but they just get gashed by big plays. M needs to take advantage, and not give up the big plays themselves...

Brown is blitzing a lot less than he did a year or two ago, probably because Gary, Winovich, Uche, Paye, and company are getting enough pressure without needing to bring the house. He's also mixing in more zone, likely because he's less underclassmen in his secondary. Still he plays a ton of man coverage by his corners with just one high safety, leaving his corners on an island which can be trouble against a QB with a good deep ball.

[iam416]

I guarantee you... GUARANTEE YOU... Higdon (or Evans) will have at least 2 plays where he gets to the 2nd level at speed and the safety bad angles a 12 yard run into however many yards are left on the field.

That's what I thought about Don Brown's defense. I think he should keep up the same approach against OSU. They're going to get plenty of pressure with their front 4. And if Winovich plays, it'll be devastating pressure. There's absolutely no reason to put your boys on Hill and Campbell 1v1 trailing a crossing route w/o help. None.

One thing I wanted to add as a prediction -- M will run at least one QB Lead Draw. Penn State ran that play against OSU without answer and for huge yards. Penn State showed it a couple times against M, and at least once it worked really well. I have to think HARBAUGH!!!! has that in his back pocket. Shea isn't as good a runner as McSorley (when healthy), but he's good enough to run that play for 10 yards against OSU's keystone cop LBs.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Would you please guarantee to STFU?

[AlabamAlum]

Seconded.

[THE_WIZARD_]

He can't get me down today AA...the McRib is back!