Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Q2 and Q3 of 2014 were the best 2 quarters of the previous 7 years. Q4 of 2011 was also better than any Trump quarter thus far. Numbers can be verified below at the BEA website. I'm using the last revised estimates for each quarter.

https://www.statista.com/statistics/188185/percent-chance-from-preceding-period-in-real-gdp-in-the-us/

https://www.bea.gov/newsreleases/glance.htm

2014 Q1: 2.9%
2014 Q2: 4.6%
2014 Q3: 5.0%
2014 Q4: 2.2%
2015 Q1: -0.2%
2015 Q2: 3.9%
2015 Q3: 2.0%
2015 Q4: 1.4%
2016 Q1: 1.1%
2016 Q2: 1.4%
2016 Q3: 3.5%
2016 Q4: 2.1%
2017 Q1: 1.4%
2017 Q2: 3.1%
2017 Q3: 3.2%
2017 Q4: 2.9%
2018 Q1: 2.3%

Also unemployment when Obama was elected stood at 6.8%. It peaked at 10% in Oct. of 2009. By Nov 2016 it was at 4.6%. Now I understand that conservatives fume about this and claim that "real unemployment" was something more like 10-15% when Obama left office and they lied for years about what the rate really was. The Feb 2017 Unemployment report, the first full month of the Trump Presidency, claimed it was 4.7%.

So you can believe three things here:

1) Trump literally got unemployment to fall about 10% in a single month. Believing this would be moronic.
2) The Trump admin is also lying about the 'real unemployment" figure
3) Unemployment was actually in pretty good shape by the end of Obama's 2 terms.

https://data.bls.gov/timeseries/LNS14000000

[Dr. Strangelove]

Now it's perfectly fair to complain that the Obama years did nothing for certain parts of the country: the Rust Belt, Appalachia, and a lot of non-farming rural America in particular. But the overall economy was much stronger in the Fall of 2016 than in the Fall of 2008. Arguing otherwise just willfully ignores data. And I should say, the same areas that the Obama Recovery didn't help haven't seen a magnificent rebirth under Trump either. Despite Trump boasting that he's single-handedly re-opening coal mines everywhere, it's not true. A whopping 771 new coal jobs were added to the economy and the majority of coal-producing states saw coal industry jobs decline. Pennsylvania's coal industry grew by 96 jobs in 2017 but one of its big companies, Dana Mining, has already announced it's closing a mine that employs 400 people this year.

Many of the most depressed areas of the country have problems that go well beyond what the President is really capable of changing in a short time span.

https://www.reuters.com/article/us-usa-coal-jobs/exclusive-trumps-coal-job-push-stumbles-in-most-states-data-idUSKBN1F81AK

[THE_WIZARD_]

"Obama Recovery"

Did you type those words with a straight face DSL?

[Da Geezer]

Anyone claiming that there was near-zero economic growth during Obama's 8 years is just straight out lying.

What I said was real economic growth. I hope you can stipulate that the Great Recession was caused by the bursting of a real estate bubble that was almost totally a result of the Community Redevelopment Act. Trillions of dollars were "loaned" to those poor victims who had no money, no credit, and no job. The government then purchased these gold-plated mortgages, which of course went bad.

In December of 2008, the Fed dropped the fed funds rate to .25%, effectively to zero. There it remained until 2015. The economic recovery that began in March of 2009 was totally about free money, massive welfare growth and massive increase in the hiring of government workers. Having 48 million persons on food stamps increases economic activity and GDP. If we could only get another 20 million or so on welfare, that would increase economic activity even more.

The essence of the Obama Recovery was to massively increase the number of those who suck on the tit of government, be they "employees", entitlement recipients, or welfare recipients. Obama printed $ 10 Trillion dollars to carry out this plan, and that is beside zero interest rates.

Now, what proof do I have of this? Negative interest rates in most of the developed world, and nearly so in the US. These market-determined negative rates reflected what most economists now see as a decline in real GDP during the Obama years. GDP measures the output of goods and services in an economy. So, if you have an HHS bureaucrat making 150k handing out say 3M in SNAP benefits to welfare recipients who in turn purchase food from a grocer who is supplied by heavily subsidized farmers, how much is really "goods and services"? As near as I can see from my example, the grocer is producing, as is the farmer. No one else produces a thing, but the bureaucrat salary, all the millions in benefits, and even the farm subsidies are counted toward GDP. And in the "Obama Recovery" none of this is paid for through taxation.

Classical economic theory is that printing 10 Trillion and injecting it into the economy should cause inflation. But it didn't. It actually yielded negative interest rates in the market for bonds. That can only be because GDP was dropping, which is what anyone who was watching saw. Obama discouraged actually productivity. "You didn't build that..."

Obama didn't say it, but he believed like Bernie as far as everyone working for the government. If everyone "worked" for the government, I suspect you would see massive increases in GDP. Put another way, when government becomes a substantial portion of the economy, old methods of calculating GDP no longer reflect actual production of goods and services.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Geezer, I found your post did a good job of challenging DSL's assertion that the economy expanded during the Obama presidency. If I'm reading your post correctly, you assert that economic expansion under BO was created by (1) creating government jobs and hiring into them or filling empty ones and (2) increasing entitlements and welfare spending.

Fundamentally you are advancing an argument that says the private sector did not expand (growth/jobs) under BO but public sector jobs and entitlements/welfare spending did. It was the later that was behind claims that BO's ARRA increased jobs thus expanding the economy.

I don't think that this argument is based on an accurate analysis of the figures that are available to us. A more accurate analysis supports DSL's position, not yours. BO's economic stimulus package known as ARRA produced robust jobs and economic growth NOT as a result of public sector hiring funded by taxes or by out of the ordinary increases in the federal debt.

Also of note and in my view, Fiscal and Monetary policy emanating from the Fed tended to enhance ARRP. I can't say if this was coordinated or not. Printing money (Helicopter Cash) by Federal Banks is a legitimate way to stimulate an economy as long as it's impact is monitored and withdrawn when appropriate (another discussion). So too are near zero interest rates and in the case of the Fed during the ARRA, that is the policy that was followed.

In any event, while Geezer's argument at face seems well constructed and convincing, it is not supported by the facts.

The first link is an unbiased analysis of the numbers associated with evaluating success or failure of various methods of stimulating an economy. In this case the ARRA.

The second link debunks Geezer's claim that job growth was based on employment growth in the public not private sector.

https://www.factcheck.org/2017/09/obamas-final-numbers/

http://money.cnn.com/2016/11/04/news...ama/index.html.

I'm not a fan of costly entitlements and welfare in general. It is a huge problem and needs to be addressed. I'm not sure either party or any president can do it. But entitlements and safety nets (social spending programs) have their place. No administration since the 50s has not increased spending in these two categories. The BO administration did increase it but to claim this, along with public sector hiring, was at the heart of the modest success of the ARRA (or economic expansion in the US in general) as Geezer does isn't a great argument.

[iam416]

Sammy "The Bull" Shankland finishes with 3 1-0s on the trot to claim the US Chess Championship. Fabiano Caruana finishes 2nd. Caruana drew Nakamura as white in Round 9 to open the door for the The Bull to storm home, but the match he'll truly rue is his loss to Zviad Izoria in Round 4 playing AS WHITE! That should have been 1-0 and the title.

Meanwhile, AlabamAlum's beloved Yaroslav Zherebukh stumbles down the stretch like he was coached by Bert Bielema to finish at 4.5 points, good for a very disappointing 9th ahead of only Alexander "The Commodore" Onichuk -- obviously, the Vanderbilt of the chess world.

So, go a little easy on AA today. He soul was throttled this weekend. Of course, the Baby Braves look unbeatable, so he has that.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Jeff- I also found this article from a conservative thinktank from around the start of Obama's second term. The total number of Federal employees increased under Obama's first 4 years by a whopping 15,000 jobs. There was a temporary huge spike when thousands of census takers were hired then let go. But total Federal employment in Jan 2009 and Jan 2013 wasn't significantly different. I can try and find second term information but considering the Republicans controlled Congress I wouldn't expect the Fed govt to have grown exponentially.

What's interesting is that TOTAL government employment, which includes state and local levels, actually shrank during the first Obama term. As the article notes, the Fed govt plays a significant role in how much money state/local governments have to spend.

http://www.aei.org/publication/has-government-employment-really-increased-under-obama/

[AlabamAlum]

Sammy "The Bull" Shankland finishes with 3 1-0s on the trot to claim the US Chess Championship. Fabiano Caruana finishes 2nd. Caruana drew Nakamura as white in Round 9 to open the door for the The Bull to storm home, but the match he'll truly rue is his loss to Zviad Izoria in Round 4 playing AS WHITE! That should have been 1-0 and the title.

Meanwhile, AlabamAlum's beloved Yaroslav Zherebukh stumbles down the stretch like he was coached by Bert Bielema to finish at 4.5 points, good for a very disappointing 9th ahead of only Alexander "The Commodore" Onichuk -- obviously, the Vanderbilt of the chess world.

So, go a little easy on AA today. He soul was throttled this weekend. Of course, the Baby Braves look unbeatable, so he has that.

Excellent

[iam416]

Hard to believe 8 wasn't good enough for at least a playoff, but The Bull was not be denied.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Chess smack. Love it.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Chess smack. Love it.

Oh they're talking chess? I assumed it was darts, that being the traditional English pastime of AA's childhood in the East End of London

[THE_WIZARD_]

Darts would actually be more interesting. You can enjoy a pint whilst partaking in without upsetting the uptight limeys...

[iam416]

Michael van Gerwen is dominating the 2018 Premier League Darts season to date. He's clinched a playoff berth at 10-3-1 and is averaging a staggering 103.37 with 52 180s on the season. In all 3 of his 7-5 losses, he threw for the higher average but, apparently, gave a game or two away. 2 of those losses are to notorious Scottish sad sac, Peter The Peateater Wright. Crazy game.

So he can be beat, but it'll take someone at the top of their game. Tune into BBC America (264 on DTV) on Thursdays for the action!

[crashcourse]

looked to me like geezer put dsl in check and despite JB's best efforts to forestall checkmate DSL went down with the kingbarack gambit -- a trail of empty sacrifices basically just giving everything away

[THE_WIZARD_]

Chess is easy...until that fucking little horsey thing starts moving all different directions...little equestrienne beyotch...