UM Football Recruiting - by WM Wolverine

[Da Geezer]

I'm surprised that there is not much talk of trying to get Jed Finch back on staff. He did wonders as the OC at UCLA (for $ 810,000/year) and is now talked about as taking the OC job at Missouri. I'd much rather have him than Hamilton or even Drevno.

[hack]

I want to know exactly who to blame for Pepcat before I make that call.

[The Oracle]

Really, then name the 2.

Sims and Reese.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Geezer, first its Jedd Fisch, second, I see little reason to rehire him. Several reasons for that: He signed a big contract with UCLA ($810K over two years - he's the second highest paid assistant coach in the PAC12). If he decides to move on after his current gig (and he may not have a choices as Chip Kelley is not likely to keep him on staff) he'll probably stay in the PAC12.

He's also a vagabond of sorts. His longest gig was 3 seasons with the Ravens. Other than that, he's moved every year between college and pro teams. He was responsible for Jake Ruddock so, there is that but I think Harbaugh has other plans for the offensive coaching staff and bringing Fisch back is not among them.

[hack]

To make the comparison you'd need to see Hamilton with Darboh and Chesson.

[hack]

Sims and Reese.

You are such a fucking Marxist.

[Da Geezer]

Reece hasn't signed and looks unlikely to do so.

[The Oracle]

Reece hasn't signed and looks unlikely to do so.

Its very possible. Unlikely is incorrect too. Are you basing that on his lead recruiter at UGA leaving for Tennessee or the MGoblow message board. Sims doesn't do it for you, or are you partial to another recruiting site that fits what narrative you've read that you should Have?

Do you think that recruiting services have rankings down to the exact number? Who's your most reliable?

[WM Wolverine]

247 composite combines the 3, you have to take into consideration the outliers to see why they are rated where they are. Sometimes the outliers get it right as they had the most accurate information. All three sites are very reputable, though there are bias and recruits who don't get enough exposure.

The recruiting sites also follow each other and follow what the coaching staffs do (e.g. when elite program offers 3 star they get a boost). It's obvious whose really talented (say top 125), it's much harder to differentiate the generic 3 star from a 4 star, sometimes the difference is only exposure. Good coaching, scouting, and a recruits effort can make up that difference.

It's really difficult for those three star teams like say Iowa to play a team loaded with 5 stars like say Ohio State. They just have no chance, none.

[The Oracle]

In Sims particular case, when 247 has him at 456, forgive me if I throw it out the window, stop and drive back over it and take a loss on it.

[UMStan White]

"It's really difficult for those three star teams like say Iowa to play a team loaded with 5 stars like say Ohio State. They just have no chance, none."

That observation is certainly spot on for this year!

[iam416]

It's CFB. Shit happens and, on occasion, totally inexplicable shit. But it's absolutely and totally not stunning that Iowa finished 8-5 and Ohio State finished 12-2.

You can pull an upset with a marginal roster but that's just the point -- it'll be "pulling an upset" -- it won't be expected wins.

[Jeff Buchanan]

It's CFB. Shit happens and, on occasion, totally inexplicable shit. But it's absolutely and totally not stunning that Iowa finished 8-5 and Ohio State finished 12-2.

You can pull an upset with a marginal roster but that's just the point -- it'll be "pulling an upset" -- it won't be expected wins.

Where does MSU fit in the picture you just drew? We had this discussion yesterday but it seems to me you saw 2/3*s coached up by MD and his staff just as capable of making a run as 4/5*s coached up by Harbaugh.

TBF, I think it is entirely possible for the Iowas and MSUs of the world to make a run by having shit fall into place, e.g., comparatively easier scheduling, no significant injuries, fluky plays and game changing bad or missed calls by amateur refs.

But the odds are against that happening. The odds are against sustainable winning (e.g., Alabama, osu, the current version of PSU and UGA) without the the pipeline that develops from that sustainable winning and top shelf recruiting. That's what M under JH is striving for.

MSU and the others, seem to me to be occasionally lucky (Wisconsin is an exception and I'll get to that). They are teams that are as likely to go 3-9 as they are 10-3 and that is because they're not drawing the HS talent in a sustainable fashion.

Somebody at Mgo was talking about Wisconsin's circumstance yesterday and did an examination of their pathway to the several CCGs, CFPs and upper level bowls they've played in since 2003. They have consistently avoided playing Top Ten OOC matches and avoided playing more than one of the top cross-division teams in the BIG East every season. Meanwhile, they dominate the West because of the style of football they play.

Well coached and executed manball, exactly what Wisconsin has been doing for decades, is going to consistently win games against undermanned, under-talented spready teams that they play in both their OOC schedules and the West division - this is Barry's franchise and he's been running it like this for 20y. It works. So, 11-1 or 10-2 regular seasons are the norm for them.

I'm, pretty sure you and I see MSU in the context of this particular discussion, in about the same way. Their going to be second or third tier more often than making a legit run. My view is that in time, M, under Harbaugh, is going to contend for championships at the same level osu does. Their are just too many valid reasons why his 3 year tenure has been less than impressive, why he is 1-5 v. MSU and osu. I'm sure you'll disagree - I don't care if you do.

My bet is that the next 3y with decent QB play and an improving recruiting pipeline, esp. on the OL, Michigan is going to look significantly different than it has since Harbaugh arrived. Once that it is established that M contends on a regular basis, puts players into the NFL with regularity, like the elites should be able to do, it's going to be hard to dislodge them from that place by others who don't have that advantage. I expect osu to continue to be a challenge to M's goal under JH and probably PSU under Franklin but beyond that it's going to be a kind of shit happens loss when the rest win v. M.

[iam416]

Re Sparty, Dantonio has done a really good job of finding good QB play from mid-star guys and it looks like Lewerke will carry on that tradition. Good QB play is a nice foundation. He also recruits some good RBs. Finally, his recruiting is fairly good. It’s not elite, but it’s closer to M than it is to Iowa. In fact, if you look at average recruit rating Sparty is now typically over 87 and close to 88 using 247 composite (off top my head). I think there’s been years where they are closer to M in avg recruit rating than M is to OSU (last year and this year). So, if you think your boy is crushing Dantonio recruiting wise then I’m not sure you can say JH is close to UFM. Pick your narrative.

Sparty won’t match OSU consistently, and if your view is that JH will achieve parity with UFM’s version of OSU (73-8 in 6 years), then M will consistently be better than Sparty. I’m dubious of that view.

Finally, I read the Wisky stuff from our old friend BiW. He HATES Wisky. They have had probably 3 lucky Rose Bowls over 25 years. They are a solid program. Chryst is really good. They don’t have the horses to win the CFP.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Re Sparty, Dantonio has done a really good job of finding good QB play from mid-star guys and it looks like Lewerke will carry on that tradition. Good QB play is a nice foundation.

So, the corollary then - bad QB play can ruin that foundation - is accurate. You'll recognize where this line of logic is going.

So, if you think your boy is crushing Dantonio recruiting wise then I?m not sure you can say JH is close to UFM. Pick your narrative.

I don't and Harbaugh is not anywhere near close to ufm ..... yet. But the gap is going to close over time, the challenges of recruiting at M, as I've mentioned before, not withstanding. And let's be clear - osu faces similar recruiting challenges. I think ufm's primary advantage is the plug and play offensive system he has run in three successful coaching stints. He's winning with tht system. Harbaugh, sans the talent at QB and the OL he needs, is still struggling.

I've come to recognize what JH wants to run on offense at M and has run everywhere he's been may be an obstacle in facing spready teams, like osu and Clemson with talent. Moreover, his system, unlike that of osu and Clemson, is highly dependent on high level QB and receiver play as well as a functional OL, i.e., talent required in those two units. That there are real obstacles involved in recruiting to M creates a second mitigating factor keeping M from contending consistently. So, Harbaugh should change his offense, right? Not going to happen but I think we are already seeing he's adapting if Shea Patterson is an indication of that.

....... if your view is that JH will achieve parity with UFM?s version of OSU (73-8 in 6 years), then M will consistently be better than Sparty. I?m dubious of that view.

Dubious is not my choice of words; but I'm not yet convinced he can do it ..... yet. Given the shit-storm in QB and OL play that probably explains a lot, I'm waiting to see if M really does improve in 2018/19 on the field, assuming he's got his QB and the OL is fucntional, and then turn that into increased numbers of top 100 and 250 HS players signing NLIs with M.

Anyway, good conversation. We've not talked about defense. I think there is parity there among the top 4 teams in the East. Wisconsin dominates on that side of the ball in the West and wins it's share of games because of that. Nobody in the West is close and that's sad. Hoping Frosty changes that at Neb.