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Badgers @ Wolverines, Post Game Discussion.

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  • #16
    10 is high.

    Comment


    • #17
      Originally posted by Rocky Bleier View Post
      With good reason. Some of his throws are god-awful. Wisconsin is good against the run, so Speight will have to step up Saturday.
      I hope Peters is ready next year to compete. I can't stand another Navarre situation.
      F#*K OHIO!!!

      Comment


      • #18
        PFF's take on Wisconsin/MSU. Great match up challenge for M's coaches.

        https://www.profootballfocus.com/col...resses-in-win/
        On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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        • #19
          It's 10? Nailed it. I'm on fire this weekend!
          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

          Comment


          • #20
            The 10 point spread may be a bit high but the Badgers have not faced a defense yet nearly as good as this one. MSU made a big mistake by not putting more consistent pressure on the freshman QB. UM will not make that mistake. Finally, I agree that Speight has been frustratingly inaccurate on his longer throws but his decision making has been pretty damn good.

            Comment


            • #21
              The line opened at 11' indicating what Vegas models have it as. The bettors have been hitting Wisky hard and have driven it down to 10 (10' in spots).

              This is a classic case of the perception of a 30-6 win versus the reality of what that game was.
              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

              Comment


              • #22
                I like his decision-making under pressure, for the most part. I like that he's hard to take down and has the footwork to avoid the initial pass rusher. I do fear that some of his bail-out throws are ripe to be picked off. I bet there's a bad int coming at some point soon. But it sure does seem like he responds to pressure with focus.

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                • #23
                  Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                  The line opened at 11' indicating what Vegas models have it as. The bettors have been hitting Wisky hard and have driven it down to 10 (10' in spots).

                  This is a classic case of the perception of a 30-6 win versus the reality of what that game was.
                  I somewhat agree, the turnovers really turned the game for good but the Spartans really couldn't do much against the Badgers at all. They earned every bit of a 30-6 loss.

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                  • #24
                    This is only the first half of wisky's offense v. MSU's defense. Somebody put this together and there's another half out there somewhere and I'll post it when I find it but you be the judge about Wisky's fear factor on O.

                    https://www.dropbox.com/s/so3vmx4hgx...20Half.ts?dl=0
                    On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      Badgers defense is clearly their strength, not sure how M's offense is going to respond... I don't see us scoring 30+ points offensively...

                      Have confidence that M's defense will hold Wisconsin's offense down quite well. O/U figure should be extremely low.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        hopefully they kick to Peppers
                        F#*K OHIO!!!

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          The blow out win is the best thing that could have happened for the up coming game. I think that Wisconsin played well but got some breaks and was the benefit of a very lethargic performance from the Spartans, with a troubled QB to boot. they chose to not put much pressure on their freshman qb, which I find hard to believe.

                          It's a much better set up than if they lost in a close hard fought game.

                          Michigan should win and perhaps convincible.

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            I could see us getting to 30, but not much more than. I'm uneasy, admittedly from the Hoke years/OSU last year, but my gut says 31-13 or something like that. I don't think they do shot on offense unless we really fuck up.

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              The little that I've read does suggest a strong Wisconsin D built on LBs and two guys that PFF likes:

                              This victory (v. MSU) owed much to the play of edge rushers Vince Biegel and T.J. Watt who recorded two sacks and an impressive 20 total QB pressures between them.

                              Encouragingly, Magnusen (RT) and Newsome (LT) both graded out very well v. PSU's rush and Speight seems to handle pressure well. Yeah, he's had his moments where he's flung some stuff out there that he probably should not have but he does have good downfield awareness when he moves. With JH and Fish coaching him, you can see since that first INT he threw, he's become really turnover consicious. I feel good about him v. Wisky's D.

                              Something we started to become aware of last season and can see it more clearly this one is that Harbaugffense isn't as run heavy as one would think it would be. M's pass run ratio 4 games in to the 2016 season is 43%/56% ....... it would be neat to be able to see this broken down into pass/run outside the 20 and inside the 20 as my eyeball tells me that M moves the ball by throwing it more outside the 20 while running more inside the 20 and especially inside the 10 (15 rushing TDs/9 passing).

                              I did find this kinda neat chart that shows how each conference shakes out with respect to pass/run % based on the 2015 season. First, you can see the BIG is a run heavy conference compared to the PAC. You can also see how inefficient M's O was in that configuration in 2015. That's going to improve in a similar chart for 2016 as YPC is now almost double what it was in 2015.

                              My point is that JH throws the ball a lot more than I expected him to. It's not as near as much as the NFL pass to run ration (55%/45%) but it is more than I expected and I sense by the eyeball check that it is a lot more than BIG teams running any semblance of pro-style O (including the hybrids that incorporate some of spread concepts into their offenses, e.g., Minny).

                              http://www.sbnation.com/college-foot...ffenses-styles

                              Expanding this perception or idea into the match-up with Wisconsin, M can and will deliver a passing game that moves the chains more effectively than MSU was able to do. Darboh and Butt playing a role there and hopefully Chesson getting targeted and making the catches 20+ yards down the field. If that plays, as I think it will, this forces Wisconsin into a less aggressive approach up front, opens the edges and if M gets into a rhythm offensively will score points. Maybe a lot more than most of us are thinking they will right now.

                              I also took a look at the Five Factors for both teams last Saturday. Up through week 3, M's yards per play (explosiveness) ranked in the bottom 50 along with Wisconsin's. Here's 3 of the five factors for each team for week 4:

                              YPP = 6(M), 4(PSU).
                              Scoring Opportunities = 9, 2.
                              Success Rate = 48%, 25%

                              YPP = 5(W), 4(MSU).
                              Scoring Opportunities = 5, 6.
                              Success Rate = 32%, 33%.

                              What stands out to me is the differentials between M v. PSU and MSU v. Wisconsin. They are huge in M's favor and the score reflects that. They are much narrower in the Wisky/MSU game and suggest that the game was much closer than the score reflects (turnovers, obviously).

                              The point is that Wisconsin may not be a team that actually performs to the level of it's current ranking nor is it one that is a threat to be explosive, nor a threat to take advantage of every opportunity it has to score points. While M, OTH, is very efficient (has been through week 3) and improved in the explosiveness category (I don't have cumulative stats yet and they sucked in that category through week 3).

                              While there is the perception that Wisconsin's win over MSU portends a much tougher battle for M this weekend, the numbers don't support that perception. I do believe M's D is a bit better than MSU's (Stats support that view) and M's offense is on a par or slightly better than MSU's. With that in mind, if M doesn't turn it over like MSU did, this should be a much easier win for M than perceptions would indicate..... and I've been screwed over royally for this kind of analysis in the past but, heh, it's fun when the numbers come out in your favor. But, football.
                              On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                30+ points offensively could be possible if the offense gets alot of help from the defense, special teams as M has had in nearly every game this season.

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