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Michigan @ Iowa, 8pm EST, Game Day, Post Game Discussion.

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  • #16
    This reminds me ominously of 2006 and 2015. In both of those years, we had an overrated defense with some stark weaknesses that started to get exposed right about this time of the year. Then OSU ripped off 42 points on us.

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    • #17
      Originally posted by Pasadena Blue View Post
      great dissection of our recent defensive problems.

      http://www.mlive.com/wolverines/inde...rt_river_index

      Teams are really going after the Stribling side of the field. He and McCray really need to get off blocks. Otherwise, Stribs may need to give way to someone who can.
      I read it. He's got what happened on M's D mostly correct. What he isn't telling you was how opponents have optimized their plays to the edges and why that works against M's tendencies on D (and how Brown deploys the players and coaches them to attack not read a play).

      Brown alternately plays 1 and 2 hi safeties on the back end. He plays press man coverage at the corners. His LBs are deployed in several different sets from a typical 4-3 to atypical 5-2 with usually Peppers right up on the LOS in this set. Regardless, they attack.

      MSU and Maryland both aligned heavy on the play side after a shift of TEs or a LT with motion from a receiver to the (opposite) back side. This draws either a LB or a S to the back side and invites a hard blitz from a LB or S on the back side where the TEs and/or LT just vacated. The intent is to produce miss-match in numbers and hopefully skill sets and size on the play side. It also takes maximum advantage of Brown's penchant to blitz.

      What are the risks and how does this actually work for the opponent? Well, pretty simple. An aggressive defense playing 2 his Ss is vulnerable to well executed plays more to the edge than in the middle. M's is especially vulnerable because M typically reacts to motion as I described above.

      A match-up between a 190 lb CB and a 300 lb OT, pulling guard or big TE isn't going to go well. This isn't guys playing poorly or lacking skills or getting off blocks. It's well designed and executed plays by the offense.

      Here's a couple of other things:
      • M had 13 TFLs vs Maryland and if I recall, the Terps had something under 100 yards rushing and just over 170 total yards well into the third quarter. While there are risks to Brown's D, there are also rewards and the 2016 stats through 9 games bears this out in spades.
      • M averages 47.8 PPG on offense and gives up 10.7 PPG on defense.
      • M averages 497 YPG and gives up 246.


      There are people who can hear a missed note in a Bach Cello Suite played by Yo Yo Ma or the Opera Pagliacci performed by Pavarotti. Few people can do that and to most listeners these are masterpieces. I draw this analogy only for the purpose of pointing out that even the best aren't flawless but everyone, including the performers, know when they've put on a good show.

      Michigan has certainly done that in 2016.

      9-0 with only a few missed notes on the way.
      On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

      Comment


      • #18
        Michigan has lost four of the last five games in this series. Haven't won @ Kinnick since 2005, more demons for Harbaugh to exercise.

        Comment


        • #19
          Here's the S&P Five Factors Match-Up for M at Iowa Conclusions:

          The IsoPPP advantages of Iowa in standard downs and rushing plays appears to be a condition of the UM Defense under Don Brown's aggressive schemes. These comparative results have been consisent since the Colorado game. As we know, the explosive plays don't occur as often as with other teams simply because the M defense is 1) particularly effective at keeping opposing offenses behind the chains, and 2) not on the field for as many plays as the M offense.

          On defense, it appears that the Hawkeyes are particularly mediocre in defending against the run. Iowa ranks in the 50's in most Rushing Defense categories, but is #118 in Adjusted Line Yards and #126 in Stuff Rate. This might suggest that the M ground attack will be particularly effective in salting this game away in the second half.

          On offense, the Iowa passing attack is looking quite poor, ranking no higher than #71 in any category other than Passing Down Success Rate, in which it is #56. Iowa is #109 in PD Line Yards/Carry, and #120 in PD IsoPPP. Not to mention, Iowa is #112 in Adjusted Sack Rate, as well as #114 in SD Sack Rate. I can already picture Mo Hurst rubbing his belly as he towers over a prostrate C.J. Beathard.


          To me, the most important part of this conclusion is the trend line over the season that replicates itself again vs Iowa. It demonstrates that M gives up explosive plays to its opponents. At this point, I'm beginning to wonder, so what?

          Well, here's what. I just read an analytical piece that compares M v. all likely CFP teams using S&P Five Factors comparisons for offense and defense. Here's the conclusion:

          Defensively, it's interesting to see that the performances correlate so closely with the quality of opponents. This chart makes it abundantly clear that Michigan has not played an elite offensive opponent, especially compared to the other top teams. We've obviously handled every offense on our schedule, but the best teams we've faced have been good mostly because of their defenses (Wisconsin, Penn St, mostly Colorado). But I'd predict we give up closer to 30 against Ohio State than 10, and same goes for a potential playoff game against any of these offenses.


          So, we know that Brown's attacking D is going to give up a few big plays. So far, none of them have hurt the final outcome. Maybe made some of you feel a little uneasy during the games and also a little concerned about what's ahead.

          I can't say I'm not concerned about osu. The reason is that osu does have an explosive offense but compared to other teams M has faced, it is much more efficient. Here's the FEI Offensive Efficiency (OFEI) against select M opponents:
          • Wisconsin = 0.22
          • Colorado = 0.38
          • PSU = 0.38
          • Iowa = 0.33
          • Terps = 0.26
          • MU = 0.26


          These are not efficient offenses. For comparison WMU = 1.17, M = 1.27; these are very efficient offenses.

          osu = 0.86, nearly 3X as efficient as any offense M has faced. So, while I think M will do well against Iowa even at Kinnick based not on the eye test, which M definitely passes, but rather based on well established past performance - something that has high predictive value.

          Unfortunately, I see problems ahead for M facing the borderline elite offense of osu that finishes drives. The Game, then, should be a fun one to watch. I don't think it will be a defensive battle. Both teams will move the ball and score. Who will score more is the question it would seem. I think it will take 40 points to beat osu in c-bus and no offense has done that in any game at the shoe that I can remember under ufm.
          On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

          Comment


          • #20
            Good analysis, Jeff... I agree with it.

            There is little reason to think that O-state won't put up as many points as us this year as last year --- I see the same defensive issues and a pretty potent O-state attack.

            The question this year is can our offense keep up. Last year we did so for a half before coming undone.

            Comment


            • #21
              I think it's probably better to look at OSU offensive efficiency against Wisky and PSU. Or even in non-Rutgers B10 games.

              Ohio State won't score with ease against M. I'd say 27 win s it, and maybe less.

              It is worth observing, however, that M hasn't played many decent offenses.
              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

              Comment


              • #22
                One of the hallmarks of the Brown defense is that it will work well against good offenses. The defense will gamble to keep the offense off balance. The outcome is often determined by the RPS as opposed to the talent on the field.

                So Michigan has an offensive efficiency rating of 1.27, compared to Ohio's 0.86. IOW, our offense is 50% better according to this measure.

                I agree with Jeff that it (UM-OSU) will be a high scoring game.

                Michigan beats Iowa handily, according to any objective measure.

                Comment


                • #23
                  Don't like what I've seen the last two weeks on defense. Good news is Iowa is pretty bad and pretty straight forward. No problem there but the next two games after offer a better challenge.

                  I have a bad feeling OSU will shred our defense like last year. They will be ready to play their best offensive game of the year. Brown will have to have his best game plan of the year to slow them down.

                  Comment


                  • #24
                    Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
                    I read it. He's got what happened on M's D mostly correct. What he isn't telling you was how opponents have optimized their plays to the edges and why that works against M's tendencies on D (and how Brown deploys the players and coaches them to attack not read a play).

                    Brown alternately plays 1 and 2 hi safeties on the back end. He plays press man coverage at the corners. His LBs are deployed in several different sets from a typical 4-3 to atypical 5-2 with usually Peppers right up on the LOS in this set. Regardless, they attack.

                    MSU and Maryland both aligned heavy on the play side after a shift of TEs or a LT with motion from a receiver to the (opposite) back side. This draws either a LB or a S to the back side and invites a hard blitz from a LB or S on the back side where the TEs and/or LT just vacated. The intent is to produce miss-match in numbers and hopefully skill sets and size on the play side. It also takes maximum advantage of Brown's penchant to blitz.

                    What are the risks and how does this actually work for the opponent? Well, pretty simple. An aggressive defense playing 2 his Ss is vulnerable to well executed plays more to the edge than in the middle. M's is especially vulnerable because M typically reacts to motion as I described above.

                    A match-up between a 190 lb CB and a 300 lb OT, pulling guard or big TE isn't going to go well. This isn't guys playing poorly or lacking skills or getting off blocks. It's well designed and executed plays by the offense.

                    Here's a couple of other things:
                    • M had 13 TFLs vs Maryland and if I recall, the Terps had something under 100 yards rushing and just over 170 total yards well into the third quarter. While there are risks to Brown's D, there are also rewards and the 2016 stats through 9 games bears this out in spades.
                    • M averages 47.8 PPG on offense and gives up 10.7 PPG on defense.
                    • M averages 497 YPG and gives up 246.


                    There are people who can hear a missed note in a Bach Cello Suite played by Yo Yo Ma or the Opera Pagliacci performed by Pavarotti. Few people can do that and to most listeners these are masterpieces. I draw this analogy only for the purpose of pointing out that even the best aren't flawless but everyone, including the performers, know when they've put on a good show.

                    Michigan has certainly done that in 2016.

                    9-0 with only a few missed notes on the way.
                    All well and good but Brown will have deviate/mix up his defensive schemes when it comes time to play OSU because they will undoubtedly bust a lot of those 8 - 10 yard gains the lesser teams are getting on the perimeter into much longer touchdown runs.

                    Comment


                    • #25
                      This feels like a time-of-possession/red-zone execution game. Which is not exactly a real out-there thing to say, mind you.

                      Comment


                      • #26
                        I think ol' Urbz is salivating to play M. Match up dream for him.

                        Comment


                        • #27
                          Line is down to -18

                          Comment


                          • #28
                            22

                            Comment


                            • #29
                              Originally posted by WingsFan View Post
                              Michigan has lost four of the last five games in this series. Haven't won @ Kinnick since 2005, more demons for Harbaugh to exercise.
                              I agree. Too many of those demons are in terrible shape.

                              Comment


                              • #30
                                ^^^^^^^^^^^^^^

                                LOL

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