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The 2017 *JD* MICHIGAN Over/Under Predictions Contest!

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  • #31
    1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER
    2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER
    3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER
    4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER
    5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 OVER
    6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 OVER
    7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER
    8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
    9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
    10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards OVER
    11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER
    12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER
    13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER
    14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER
    15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 OVER
    16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER
    17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER
    18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER
    19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER
    20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

    TB) 520 points
    To be a professional means that you don't die. - Takeru "the Tsunami" Kobayashi

    Comment


    • #32
      SLF, that's 40pts per game average!

      If we've got Harbaughffense pegged, he's going to want 70+ plays in 60m of game clock. He'll have a 50/50 pass/run split, maybe 55/45 depending on what the defenses are giving or taking away. But, I'm thinking he's going to want as many 12-14 play drives as he can get rather than short, quick scoring drives.

      That means this is likely going to be a 27-34 ppg offense. Lower v. FL, Wisky, PSU and osu. Higher v. Rutgers et. al. No way this is 40+ ppg offense.
      On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

      Comment


      • #33
        Roughly a third of the season is beating up on crappy teams, though.

        Comment


        • #34
          Maybe ...... my sense is that Harbaugh won't run up gaudy scores. He also won't stop scoring if an opponent can't stop the offense but, again, he'll likely call plays that create long drives over plays that create short ones. Just my best guess at this point.
          On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

          Comment


          • #35
            Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
            SLF, that's 40pts per game average!

            If we've got Harbaughffense pegged, he's going to want 70+ plays in 60m of game clock. He'll have a 50/50 pass/run split, maybe 55/45 depending on what the defenses are giving or taking away. But, I'm thinking he's going to want as many 12-14 play drives as he can get rather than short, quick scoring drives.

            That means this is likely going to be a 27-34 ppg offense. Lower v. FL, Wisky, PSU and osu. Higher v. Rutgers et. al. No way this is 40+ ppg offense.
            They were right around there last year, with a similar schedule. Not too far out of the realm that the offense could be better. Also, we only had 4 D/ST TDs. Increae those by a few to account for the probability of not hitting 78 vs Rutgers and it could get close.

            Improbably, but not impossible.

            Comment


            • #36
              Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
              Maybe ...... my sense is that Harbaugh won't run up gaudy scores. He also won't stop scoring if an opponent can't stop the offense but, again, he'll likely call plays that create long drives over plays that create short ones. Just my best guess at this point.
              I would think you'd care more about getting the young WRs some work in those blowout situations.

              Comment


              • #37
                This is a very well done article on what it will take for M to reach elite status and start winning v top 10 teams, something it has been unable to do. RR had one in his second season and M, under JH, beat Wisconsin in 2016. That's 2 ..... TWO!!! ....... wins against top ten teams in, what, 10 years. Awful!

                https://saturdaytradition.com/michig...re-elite-2017/

                Cliff notes:

                Run the ball better. In all of the losses in the Harbaugh era, none of them have seen a rushing yards per game > 100. More troubling is the ypc well under 3 for the game and under 2 in the 4th qtr in the games where M had a 4th quarter lead.

                Hope for the 2017 season? Frey, plain and simple. I'm pretty sure when the coaches meet for a head session after the season ended with the loss to FSU, they collectively recognized what the problem was - no run game when the team needed one - and Harbaugh went out and snagged one of the best OL coaches in CFB.

                While the author alludes to it ("a face lift in the back field") I think he misses the likelihood that M is not going to have a featured back. There will be situational RBs based on down, distance, score differential and clock.
                On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

                Comment


                • #38
                  Hope for the 2017 season? Frey, plain and simple.

                  Yup. Not quite that simple, but if you had to say one thing...

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    M needs the right side of the offensive line to do their part. Onwenu & whoever wins the RT job (Runyan, Beatty, etc.). Left side looks All B1G caliber and will be a strength...

                    We'll see if Onwenu is ready to play at a high level, he's got the talent level just needs the reps and experience. A solid B1G RT will be a great sign at protecting Speight abd giving him time to go through his progressions.

                    Last season, we saw elite DL in our losses and some less than elite DL able to humiliate our interior OL and get pressure far too quickly on Speight. That can't happen in '17. Only a few opponents have those type of DL luckily.

                    Comment


                    • #40
                      IMO, passing game is much more important than running game. So, in addition to Frey, the Pep Hamilton hire is new and important this year. Of course, the main factor on the positive side is named PeoplesJones-Black-Martin-Collins. Got to take advantage of that.

                      Comment


                      • #41
                        1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER
                        2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER
                        3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER
                        4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER
                        5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER
                        6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER
                        7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 UNDER
                        8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
                        9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER
                        10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER
                        11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 OVER
                        12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER
                        13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER
                        14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER
                        15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 OVER
                        16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER
                        17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 OVER
                        18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER
                        19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 UNDER
                        20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

                        466
                        "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln

                        Comment


                        • #42
                          Originally posted by Detroit Dan View Post
                          IMO, passing game is much more important than running game. So, in addition to Frey, the Pep Hamilton hire is new and important this year. Of course, the main factor on the positive side is named PeoplesJones-Black-Martin-Collins. Got to take advantage of that.
                          Dan, no doubt, some great receivers but .........

                          The passing game is high variance. Besides as closely as we can tell JH is building a power offense designed to run and possess the ball. The article I linked to in the Team 138 Thread counters the recently held view that big (explosive) plays are key to wins; therefore take big risks, a lot of them, to get more explosive plays.

                          He walks that back a bit and says, "If big plays can happen on any down at any rate, the key to creating explosive plays is an efficient offense. This means a high success rate per play (go to Connelly's Football Study Hall web site to understand this ....... www.footballstudyhall.com).

                          I think it's pretty obvious with Speight at QB, an OC's willingness to run a whole lot of risky, high variance plays in hopes of getting the big one is not a great choice. M will be better off running the ball well (high success rate - efficient offense; efficiency = more wins) creating those long drives that put the ball in the endzone.
                          On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

                          Comment


                          • #43
                            1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER

                            2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER

                            3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 UNDER

                            4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 UNDER

                            5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 UNDER

                            6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER

                            7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER

                            8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

                            9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

                            10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards UNDER

                            11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER

                            12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 UNDER

                            13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER

                            14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER

                            15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 UNDER

                            16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER

                            17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER

                            18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 UNDER

                            19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 UNDER

                            20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 UNDER

                            TIE-BREAKER: Total Points Scored for the Whole Season? 391

                            Comment


                            • #44
                              I think that I may have said this elsewhere, but...

                              The running game was king for the first 80 or so years of football, basically through the Bo and Woody eras. Then the elite pro style passers started showing up, and QBs' throwing abilities took over the game. That lasted for about 20 years. This included the Moeller and the peak Carr years, which contained the greatest passing QB play that the program has ever seen (Brady, Henson, Grbac, senior year Griese, etc).

                              In the early oughts, the return of running QBs to the game and the proliferation of spread offenses made the running game king again, and that's where we are today. IMHO this isn't as much about doing something new as it is about rediscovering principles that had been largely forgotten or lost. I think that the pro style QB era in college football -- the era dominated by the Vinny Testaverdes, Peyton Mannnings, and Danny Weurffels -- might be looked back on as a historical anomaly someday.
                              Last edited by Hannibal; August 25th, 2017, 11:59 AM.

                              Comment


                              • #45
                                Originally posted by *JD* View Post
                                By request, I am bringing a Michigan Football version of a contest I've been running in the Pistons Forum for the last several years.

                                To have your entry count, make your predictions by kickoff of the Michigan vs. Florida game. You get 10 points for every correct answer. There may be a prize at the end of this. We'll see. At the very least, you get bragging rights.

                                Since this is Year 1, I'm going to start off fairly simple and see how that works out. There will be 20 questions. Copy and paste the questions below and fill in your prediction. Answer with an OVER or UNDER. Any question that doesn't name a player or coach is a question about The Team, The Team, The Team. Not about opponents.

                                Let's go! (blue)

                                1) Regular Season Wins: 9.5 OVER

                                2) Starts by John O'Korn: 1.5 UNDER

                                3) Catches by DPJ: 44.5 OVER

                                4) Rushing Yards for Chris Evans: 1100.5 OVER

                                5) Passing TD's by Wilton Speight: 22.5 OVER

                                6) Sacks by Rashan Gary: 8.25 UNDER Just barely.

                                7) Sideline Penalties Called on Jim Harbaugh: 0.5 OVER

                                8- Pick 6's by the Defense: 1.5 UNDER

                                9) Fumbles Returned for a TD by the Defense: 1.5 OVER

                                10) Longest Made FG: 52.5 Yards OVER Nordin will boom.

                                11) TD Catches for Nico Collins: 4.5 UNDER

                                12) Games we shutout an Opponent: 0.5 OVER

                                13) Total TD's for Khalid Hill: 8.5 UNDER More big play TD's this year.

                                14) INT's Thrown by Speight: 6.5 OVER More passing this year.

                                15) Kickoff/Punt Returns for TD: 0.5 UNDER

                                16) Starts for Aubrey Solomon: 3.5 UNDER Lots of PT, though.

                                17) Plays for Dylan McCaffery: 0.5 UNDER Redshirt.

                                18- Players Voted 1st Team All-B1G: 3.5 OVER

                                19) Wins vs. tosu: 0.5 OVER Fuck'em.

                                20) Post-season Wins (includes B1G Championship Game): 1.5 OVER Total optimist pick.


                                TIE-BREAKER: Total Points Scored for the Whole Season?
                                15 x 34 = 510. Once again, optimist! GO BLUE!

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