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The 2017 *JD* MICHIGAN Over/Under Predictions Contest!

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  • #61
    Well, would be blind leading the blind, but I've been working on it too and can explain on a Skype session. If you want, we could use last year's Pistons O/U as a test case. I think I still have that file, and we could plug the final numbers in and test my work.

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    • #62
      Originally posted by *JD* View Post
      You should've made picks too!


      Shoulda



      Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
      Atlanta, GA

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      • #63
        Originally posted by *JD* View Post
        Anyone who bet the OVER on question #10, pop the champagne!
        Poppin!!!!

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        • #64
          No changing our over/under pics but what's the thinking on these key questions after week one ..... well, almost after - the football god's ridiculously scheduled 3 Sunday games:

          (1) M's regular season W/L record is ....??

          (2) Is the Defense better, about the same, worse than you thought?

          (3) Is the offense better, about the same, worse than you thought?

          (4) Who's in on the four CFB playoff slots?
          On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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          • #65
            Not that my opinion matters, but my opinion of M is still roughly the same. I think it bit foolish to change things after one game. I can only imagine where things will be when they're 6-0!

            However, the Mgo thread on this topic is a great read. I doubt this will be as much fun.
            Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
            Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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            • #66
              (1) M's regular season W/L record is ....?? I'm sticking with a ceiling of 9-3. Speight is going to make some bad, game changing mistakes. Harbaugh, in close games in the 4th, down the stretch is going to make some bad, game changing calls.

              (2) Is the Defense better, about the same, worse than you thought? Better. Caveat UF ..... no balls over the heads of the DBs. Tight coverage. Opponent catches consistently contested. The front 4 (more likely three) in combo with Bush and Hudson at LB/Viper.

              (3) Is the offense better, about the same, worse than you thought? About the same except noteworthy improvement in the run game. Speight and the QB situation is a major obstacle to getting past 9-3. That is not going to change, IMO.

              Didn't add a prediction for ST's but way better. Nordin is very good. Needs to make those shorter FGs. He will. DPJ on returns looks solid replacing Peppers admirably. Loved his willingness to catch the ball inside the 20 and run it out.

              (4) Who's in on the four CFB playoff slots? Alabama for sure. FSU's Francois likely out for the season with either a ACL/MCL injury or a Tibial plateau FX eliminates almost a sure spot for them. osu/PSU winner, Clemson, Oklahoma - they'll lose to osu but run the Big12 schedule.

              M has a shot but has to get past the 9-3 record I think they'll post. That means beating PSU and osu both. I don't think we'll see the PAC12 get a spot.
              Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; September 3rd, 2017, 09:25 AM.
              On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

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              • #67
                You're still assuming they drop a "non-competitive" game somewhere along the way? That's crazy. They're not losing at home to a tomato can, and the only road games against subpar teams are Indiana and Purdue. There's no way they lose to Purdue and they will raze Indiana.

                Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State. Can't see them losing all of them.
                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                Comment


                • #68
                  They won one of the toss-ups, 1-2 vs OSU, Wisconsin & Penn State and they'll be at 10 wins...

                  M's defense forced Florida's QB's to beat them, Frank's wasn't going to make the difficult throws. Corners don't look quite ready to play at a high level but they were the only position group on the defense that didn't surpass expectations.

                  I defend Speight a lot but he does limit the offenses potential, he's not a Heisman candidate. He wasn't on the same page as the receivers, that should improve with time. Missed some easy throws, Crawford made some mistakes as bad as Speight and Perry's silly spin killed a ton of momentum. Speight has a slow release, doesn't have much touch, hopefully this is one of his weakest games of the season. Offensive line had a tough opponent but allowed more pressure on the QB than you'd like.

                  Surprisingly the defense is well ahead of the offense though that might be because of the competition.

                  *SEC (Bama)
                  *ACC champ (FSU vs Clemson winner)
                  *B1G (OSU)
                  *Pac 12 champ (USC vs Washington winner)

                  Ohio State vs Oklahoma game will decide if the Big 12 (Oklahoma) gets an invite. Even with a Buckeye loss the B1G is still in good shape to get an invite; the Big 12 is more likely to steal the Pac 12's spot.

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                  • #69
                    Originally posted by hack View Post
                    Well, would be blind leading the blind, but I've been working on it too and can explain on a Skype session. If you want, we could use last year's Pistons O/U as a test case. I think I still have that file, and we could plug the final numbers in and test my work.
                    Can you or Who set up a page and I'll enter everyone's picks?

                    Comment


                    • #70
                      I'm also going to Unstick this thread. I think it will be near the top after every game.

                      Comment


                      • #71
                        My apologies on the Nico Collins question. I was trying to remember the other WR getting pre-season hype and instead looked to high school rankings to try and find out who it was. That was meant to be Tarik Black.

                        I'm feeling like congrats are in order to the UNDER-takers on that one.

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                        • #72
                          The fumble return for TD OVER 1.5 is looking strong.

                          Speight over 6.5 interceptions is looking remarkably strong, too.
                          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                          Comment


                          • #73
                            Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                            You're still assuming they drop a "non-competitive" game somewhere along the way? That's crazy. They're not losing at home to a tomato can, and the only road games against subpar teams are Indiana and Purdue. There's no way they lose to Purdue and they will raze Indiana.

                            Wisconsin, Penn State and Ohio State. Can't see them losing all of them.
                            You could be right. Nice if you were ........

                            I see a couple of negative trends, among plenty of positives and, as you point out, it's early. I think it's these two that will cost M games they will be favored in and I'll include the generally regarded toss-ups v. @PSU, @Wisky and a lean to a loss v. osu at home.

                            Harbaugh has a tendency in the 4th quarter to make some head scratching, hi-variance calls then pursue a strange low risk strategy in close games. He has trouble sealing the deal. A Bo gene? Both of these tendencies have a high potential of biting M in the ass.

                            Mitigating that, I suppose, is an improved run game which could be used to close out opponents like it looked like M could do to UF ..... until the botched long ball to a wide open Crawford and that weird series from inside UF's 10 I mentioned elsewhere. Those are good example of what I'm talking about here. Harbaugh's approach matched with Speight's weaknesses don't seem to me to be a a game winning combo.

                            Speight. Enough said. I don't want to ride him. He's good but not good enough.
                            On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."

                            Comment


                            • #74
                              Yeah, as I said in the game thread, you'll need Speight. There's just no two ways about it. M won't run the ball against really good DLs, IMO. I say that thinking the exact same thing about OSU. Urbs won't get where he wants to go unless JTB and the passing game improves. Just won't happen. I don't think you can win the CFP being 1 or even "1 and half" dimensional.
                              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                              Comment


                              • #75
                                Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                                The fumble return for TD OVER 1.5 is looking strong.

                                Speight over 6.5 interceptions is looking remarkably strong, too.
                                I can't argue either of those.

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