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Minnesota @ Michigan, Saturday 11/4, 7:30p, FOX, Stream FoxGo

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  • #31
    Minnesota is not good so, comparing stats will give you exactly what you thought it would: A prediction that Michigan will win.

    Not a sure thing for certain ....... but, I've been a Michigan fan for a long time. From about 1972 or so and until the last two years of the Carr regime, fans were pretty confident of a B10 win every Saturday through The Game. The outcome of osu v. M was always up in the air.

    We're about 90% back there, or at least I am. It's somewhat pleasant. I do still think M has two more losses, this weekend, against Minnesota, is probably not one of them.

    The Wisconsin game looks more winnable as the season unfolds and some level of identity is emerging within M's offense and the Badger's look beatable having made it through a blitheringly easy schedule. But, it's in Madison and M hasn't won there since 2006. Wow ..... I did not know that until it was pointed out to me. Anyway, that's two Saturdays from now. We'll talk about that after Maryland.....unless we won't because M loses one of the WTF games I predicted M would lose. Oh, wait, they already lost to MSU. Terrible.

    The significance of this game is to see if: (1) Brandon Peters is a good QB or just a Freshman who had an outlying good game in relief of JOK v. Rutgers. (2) The run game is as good as it was v. Rutgers. Brian's UFR Offense had the highest grades for the offensive line and RBs that he has charted since he began doing this. Yes, I know, Rutgers and of course, talent has already told us how many yards osu rushed and passed for v. these kittens. But still ........

    The run game: There were no IZ or OZ plays v. Rutgers. It was all power. Previously it had been 60/40 power/zone. We're told that the run selection was based on what the Rutgers D was doing which was noting unique or exotic. They stayed in Zone and blitzed only rarely and almost always from the CB spot. Peters appeared to have easy throws, not so much because the play-calls were made that way for him but rather that Rutgers did not play any press-man and were giving a huge amount of space in coverage. The underneath routes were open. Clearly they were trying to prevent the big play (that bend don't break BS) but their run defense was so bad, both in short yardage and in the RZ, that M was getting plenty of yards off the run game alone when it needed it. So, that didn't work out so well for Minnesota.

    The Gophers apparently have better LBs. That might lessen M's potential for a big run game or it might provide further evidence that M can not only club Rutgers but also Minnesota. Hopefully Peters remembers who is getting the hand-offs and which way he is supposed to go. Whoops.

    Passing: The WX picture is still not entirely clear. There is a < 40% chance of rain after sometime in the evening. NOAA isn't saying yet because they don't really know. Like I've said, I've watched the WX in SE MI for decades and, yes, it is hard to forecast. It is supposed to be dry in the hours leading up to the game.

    Regardless, I'm not expecting Peters (or O'Korn if he starts) to come out throwing or he might. That's what's kinda fun about Harbaugh. With Black and Crawford out (Crawford could play) and DPJ and now Nico Collins out there (his red-shirt was burned last week), not sure the staff has a lot of confidence in the Freshman to Freshman passing game. Yikes. Also, remember that Peters v. Rutgers had a throw to Perry on a slant that was a bit late (?hesitated) into double coverage. It should have been an INT and would have been against a better D. Brian remarked maybe this is the reason he wasn't starting as, in practice, he was doing that consistently ..... but then again, if that was a troublesome throw for Peters, why was it called. IOW, things don't sync to well in Brian's take on this throw for my taste

    TEs seem solid and, holy shit, the wheel route to Evans appeared v. Rutgers. Suspect that's where the passing action will be seen if there is any. I'd expect Harbaugh to run as long as Minnesota demonstrates an inability to deal with that. There's been some talk of seeing Ambry Thomas not only on STs catching punts (he's supposed to be a S) but also in some sort of jet sweep action or stuff like it on offense. That would be fun.

    STs: Nordin's situation is weird. In the first 4 games he was gold. In the last two, he missed an EP and a FG. Someone posted he was injured. No confirmation one way or the other. If the game comes down to that, we found out (1) Peters is still a shaky Frosh that makes bad reads, bad decisions and throws into coverage at an alarming rate and (2) the run game is not as good as it was thought to be after Rutgers.

    If we learn Peters is indeed good and the run game performs somewhere near the way it did v. Rutgers, I can see a score of 35 -3 and a possible shut out. If Peters is not able to sustain his level of quarterbacksmanship he displayed v. Rutgers (i.e., turnovers -1 or more) and the run game reverts to what it looked like v. PSU (adding turnovers and producing short fields for the Gophers), I still think M wins this 28 - 17.
    Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; November 2nd, 2017, 12:57 PM.
    On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): �We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


    • #32
      Shut the fuck up Donny!


      • #33
        Onwenu might not play. He is probably our best run blocker.


        • #34
          I sort-of short shrifted Minnesota's defense by not providing many details. That's becasue I was waiting for FFFF Defense at mgoblog. It's a good read.

          Cliff Notes: The author (Seth) thinks this game could go a lot like the MSU game ... in the rain .....rock fight ..... M has trouble. Minesota, like MSU, has a shaky secondary and decent DL and LBs. M could not run v. MSU and did not have a QB that could leverage the weak secondary.

          This is especially true if the Gopher's DL (which is Richardson who is good at NT and approaching Mo Hurst capabilities)) gets into Peters' face over Kugler's and Runyan's bodies on the ground (Onwenu is listed as questionable at RG).

          Positives are that Iowa (notorious for antediluvian play calling) does stuff very similar to Harbaughffense without JH's attempts to get the D to mis-read keys. Iowa just does it and with some success v. the Gophers. So, don't give up on power.

          As well - the Jet Sweeps and End Arounds. Do it. Maybe with Thomas in a double reverse roll. Woof.

          One more noteworthy note: Minnesota is down to a Freshman, 5'10", 174 lb boundary S and a questionable FS that had some big busts v. Iowa. If M is able, this may be the time for the OL to pass-block well, for Peters to demonstrate he can hit the long ball and Collins or DPJ can get open and catch it. That would be NICE!!!

          On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): �We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


          • #35
            Latest NWS fcst at 7a today calls for a 70% chance of light rain on Saturday. It should remain relatively dry through 2p with likelihood of light rain showers increasing as the day goes on. Accumulation of < 0.10" so this isn't going to be monsoon conditions. Winds during the day are easterly at 7-9mph and 6mph during the evening game. Temps start out in the mid-upper 40s and top out in the low 50s.
            On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): �We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


            • #36
              ...... one comment about the weather affecting the game.

              There's a good deal of hand-wringing about this. Unless the forecast is totally wrong (and I don't think it is) the field may be a little damp but the ball will be dry if the Refs do their job. It's not going to be that cold (50s) or windy (6-9mph out of the East) either.

              But, it's a SE Michigan weather forecast. Not always accurate, Bob.
              On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): �We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


              • #37
                Shut the fuck up Donny!


                • #38
                  Decent preview of this game up at mgoblog. Cliff notes:

                  Minnesota's QB, Demry Croft replaced Conor Rhoda midway through the Michigan State game.

                  He led a furious, if futile, comeback against the Spartans, averaging 8.2 YPC and throwing three touchdowns in 20 attempts. He threw a pick, and MSU was in one of those fourth quarters where you're going to win if you don't do anything stupid like give up a quick TD. Croft was more or less allowed to gradually matriculate down the field.

                  The entire picture on Croft though can not be that reassuring for Gopher fans. He's not good. He does lend a running aspect to the Minnesota O that Rhoda did not so, there is that. But he is not jt barrett v. PSU - not even close. Minnesota has no passing game and it appears Fleck elected to put Croft in to make his spready offense more run orient at the expense of the passing game. That has not worked out.

                  Minnesota actually has a statistically worse run defense than Rutgers. Yep, you heard that right. So, guess what? If this plays out tomorrow night and M continues on the trajectory of an improving run game then that is what you will see.

                  Brian pegs Peters for 27 attempts that will amount to a few downfield throws on standard downs and short yardage pick-ups to TEs and Perry to move the sticks on third down when necessary.

                  I'm thinking less than that as if it is possible, Harbaugh will club Minnesota, get out of the cold night air and/or rain (if it comes) and call it a game.

                  Ty Isaac, Kareem Walker, and Mike Onwenu all limped or staggered off the field late in that game. If the two running backs can't go, expect a much heavier dose of Chris Evans as he picks up carries after Higdon; O'Maury Samuels also figures to get his first carries outside of garbage time. Onwenu's absence would be much bigger, figuratively and literally. Jon Runyan Jr has deputized at times this year and played fairly well, but he is not a man-planet with ballerina feet.

                  I really don't think it matters who is playing at RG or who the RBs are. M is going to have success in the ground game and if it doesn't we're going to see if Peters is to become The Anointed One..... or not.

                  Read the whole thing here:

                  On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): �We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


                  • #39
                    Ideally, get out ahead early and run passing drills. I hope Walker can go. I really want to see Walker get some carries.


                    • #40
                      Why isn't Gus calling this game? Hes not even on the FOX football schedule tomorrow.


                      • #41
                        Because he fucking suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks
                        In Columbus, of course, the fanbase holds the University accountable for doing the wrong thing. -Talent, Esq-


                        • #42
                          Yea, but like, Peanut disagrees with your opinion, man.

                          AAL 2018 - Teez Tabor


                          • #43
                            Who the hell is Peanut?
                            In Columbus, of course, the fanbase holds the University accountable for doing the wrong thing. -Talent, Esq-


                            • #44
                              Originally posted by WingsFan View Post
                              Why isn't Gus calling this game?
                              Because Fox prefers to put Gus Johnson on games that will be watched by more than about six people.


                              • #45
                                Heh heh
                                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.