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Minnesota @ Michigan, Saturday 11/4, 7:30p, FOX, Stream FoxGo

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  • #31
    Minnesota is not good so, comparing stats will give you exactly what you thought it would: A prediction that Michigan will win.

    Not a sure thing for certain ....... but, I've been a Michigan fan for a long time. From about 1972 or so and until the last two years of the Carr regime, fans were pretty confident of a B10 win every Saturday through The Game. The outcome of osu v. M was always up in the air.

    We're about 90% back there, or at least I am. It's somewhat pleasant. I do still think M has two more losses, this weekend, against Minnesota, is probably not one of them.

    The Wisconsin game looks more winnable as the season unfolds and some level of identity is emerging within M's offense and the Badger's look beatable having made it through a blitheringly easy schedule. But, it's in Madison and M hasn't won there since 2006. Wow ..... I did not know that until it was pointed out to me. Anyway, that's two Saturdays from now. We'll talk about that after Maryland.....unless we won't because M loses one of the WTF games I predicted M would lose. Oh, wait, they already lost to MSU. Terrible.

    The significance of this game is to see if: (1) Brandon Peters is a good QB or just a Freshman who had an outlying good game in relief of JOK v. Rutgers. (2) The run game is as good as it was v. Rutgers. Brian's UFR Offense had the highest grades for the offensive line and RBs that he has charted since he began doing this. Yes, I know, Rutgers and of course, talent has already told us how many yards osu rushed and passed for v. these kittens. But still ........

    The run game: There were no IZ or OZ plays v. Rutgers. It was all power. Previously it had been 60/40 power/zone. We're told that the run selection was based on what the Rutgers D was doing which was noting unique or exotic. They stayed in Zone and blitzed only rarely and almost always from the CB spot. Peters appeared to have easy throws, not so much because the play-calls were made that way for him but rather that Rutgers did not play any press-man and were giving a huge amount of space in coverage. The underneath routes were open. Clearly they were trying to prevent the big play (that bend don't break BS) but their run defense was so bad, both in short yardage and in the RZ, that M was getting plenty of yards off the run game alone when it needed it. So, that didn't work out so well for Minnesota.

    The Gophers apparently have better LBs. That might lessen M's potential for a big run game or it might provide further evidence that M can not only club Rutgers but also Minnesota. Hopefully Peters remembers who is getting the hand-offs and which way he is supposed to go. Whoops.

    Passing: The WX picture is still not entirely clear. There is a < 40% chance of rain after sometime in the evening. NOAA isn't saying yet because they don't really know. Like I've said, I've watched the WX in SE MI for decades and, yes, it is hard to forecast. It is supposed to be dry in the hours leading up to the game.

    Regardless, I'm not expecting Peters (or O'Korn if he starts) to come out throwing or he might. That's what's kinda fun about Harbaugh. With Black and Crawford out (Crawford could play) and DPJ and now Nico Collins out there (his red-shirt was burned last week), not sure the staff has a lot of confidence in the Freshman to Freshman passing game. Yikes. Also, remember that Peters v. Rutgers had a throw to Perry on a slant that was a bit late (?hesitated) into double coverage. It should have been an INT and would have been against a better D. Brian remarked maybe this is the reason he wasn't starting as, in practice, he was doing that consistently ..... but then again, if that was a troublesome throw for Peters, why was it called. IOW, things don't sync to well in Brian's take on this throw for my taste

    TEs seem solid and, holy shit, the wheel route to Evans appeared v. Rutgers. Suspect that's where the passing action will be seen if there is any. I'd expect Harbaugh to run as long as Minnesota demonstrates an inability to deal with that. There's been some talk of seeing Ambry Thomas not only on STs catching punts (he's supposed to be a S) but also in some sort of jet sweep action or stuff like it on offense. That would be fun.

    STs: Nordin's situation is weird. In the first 4 games he was gold. In the last two, he missed an EP and a FG. Someone posted he was injured. No confirmation one way or the other. If the game comes down to that, we found out (1) Peters is still a shaky Frosh that makes bad reads, bad decisions and throws into coverage at an alarming rate and (2) the run game is not as good as it was thought to be after Rutgers.

    If we learn Peters is indeed good and the run game performs somewhere near the way it did v. Rutgers, I can see a score of 35 -3 and a possible shut out. If Peters is not able to sustain his level of quarterbacksmanship he displayed v. Rutgers (i.e., turnovers -1 or more) and the run game reverts to what it looked like v. PSU (adding turnovers and producing short fields for the Gophers), I still think M wins this 28 - 17.
    Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; November 2, 2017, 12:57 PM.
    There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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    • #32
      shaddup
      Shut the fuck up Donny!

      Comment


      • #33
        Onwenu might not play. He is probably our best run blocker.

        Comment


        • #34
          I sort-of short shrifted Minnesota's defense by not providing many details. That's becasue I was waiting for FFFF Defense at mgoblog. It's a good read.

          Cliff Notes: The author (Seth) thinks this game could go a lot like the MSU game ... in the rain .....rock fight ..... M has trouble. Minesota, like MSU, has a shaky secondary and decent DL and LBs. M could not run v. MSU and did not have a QB that could leverage the weak secondary.

          This is especially true if the Gopher's DL (which is Richardson who is good at NT and approaching Mo Hurst capabilities)) gets into Peters' face over Kugler's and Runyan's bodies on the ground (Onwenu is listed as questionable at RG).

          Positives are that Iowa (notorious for antediluvian play calling) does stuff very similar to Harbaughffense without JH's attempts to get the D to mis-read keys. Iowa just does it and with some success v. the Gophers. So, don't give up on power.

          As well - the Jet Sweeps and End Arounds. Do it. Maybe with Thomas in a double reverse roll. Woof.

          One more noteworthy note: Minnesota is down to a Freshman, 5'10", 174 lb boundary S and a questionable FS that had some big busts v. Iowa. If M is able, this may be the time for the OL to pass-block well, for Peters to demonstrate he can hit the long ball and Collins or DPJ can get open and catch it. That would be NICE!!!

          Humble. [Author note: Ace is out sick this week; you’re stuck with Seth again.] ---------------------------------- Fancystats-wise P.J. Fleck’s first defense in St. Paul is treading water with the top 25 outfits that Kill and his successor were putting out: 23rd in S&P+, 21st in scoring, not standout in any facet. (Except the nose tackle, but we’ll get to him.) We’ve said this before, but that appears to be a mirage. Throw a rock in any of a thousand Minnesota lakes and a magical fairy will appear to tell you the Gophers are banged up in the secondary and living on scrap, luck, and an easy schedule (against which they’re 4-4 but the offense is another day). The Gophers had to burn a 174-pound kid’s redshirt last week just to get two cornerbacks on the field. That, predictably, did not go well. On paper, Michigan’s players are better. I’d be comfortable about this, if I wasn’t being reminded every day about the last time Michigan faced a paper-thin secondary in Ann Arbor in the rain at night with a trophy on the line. This thing isn’t that thing. But they’re not far off. ---------------------------------- Personnel: [Big formation diagram can be made bigger with a click] (Stelter was starting NT before Richardson emerged) Michigan things: Sorry no star for Peters yet. Michigan lists Onwenu as questionable; I imagine Runyan will play if he can’t go by Saturday night. Minnesota things: As you may gather from the cyan, the degradation from #DBU to a Rodriguez-era Michigan secondary has much to do with who’s not on the field. The sexual assault scandal that got embittered doofus Tracy Claeys fired hit the defensive backs hardest. For three and a half games this year, the lone survivor of those suspensions, spacebacker Antoine Winfield Jr. (yes, old person, you read that correctly) was the star of a defense giving up 4 YPP. His replacement Kamal Martin is closer to the linebacker end of the spacebacker spectrum and close to a cyan’ing—he’ll bust at least one coverage bigly per game but make a handful of good plays against the run. The Gophers subsequently lost both starting cornerbacks, Kiondre Thomas and Antonio Shenault. Replacing one meant moving the Troy Woolfolk-like Kunle Ayinde to cornerback and dimeback Jacob Huff to starting free safety. This worked and didn’t: Ayinde is more natural at corner and his run defense is as valuable off the edge as it was coming down from on high. If Ayinde is Woolfolk, Huff is Michael Williams, i.e. a born nickelback who’s a bust waiting to happen as the deep safety. Losing Shenault was the last straw: true freshman CB Justus Harris started against Iowa and there’s your Boubacar Cissoko. They’ve also pulled the redshirt off of safety Ken Handy-Holly, the highest rated player of Fleck’s first class; he tends to fall down at an alarming rate. The lone returning starter still on the field is SS/OLB Daletavious “Duke” McGhee, a heavy-hitter whose rap sheet of targeting suspensions is an apt description of his game. MLB Thomas Barber (yes THOSE Barbers) passed 2016 starter/walk-on Cody Poock and has a knack for dodging OL then missing a tackle. WLB Jonathan Celestin doesn’t pop out but he’s decisive and avoids mistakes against the run, and can handle a large middle zone in pass pro. NT Steven Richardson is trouble; he doesn’t have enough NFL hype to justify a shield, however his PFF numbers argue otherwise and I can see why: think Ryan Glasgow. The other inside spot is a rotation between planet-sized DT Merrick Jackson, who’s rather eventful, and Van Bergen-ian DT Gary Moore who’s more sound but more pliable. Former blue chip SDE Carter Coughlin is undersized for a 4-3 over strongside end and makes up for it by getting aggressive, for better and worse. In their passing down sets Coughlin will often drop into coverage, where he was a consistent disaster. WDE Nate Umlor is just a guy; he’s solid against the run and not much of a pass rush threat. On passing downs Minnesota normally went to a 3-3-5 Okie look to get Jake Ryan-esque sophomore DE/OLB Blake Cashman on the field. Cashman had 10.5 TFLs and 7.5 sacks last year as a situational Furbush/3-4 OLB but they haven’t gotten him as involved this year. [Hit THE JUMP for the rest of the breakdown] ----------------------------------
          There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

          Comment


          • #35
            Latest NWS fcst at 7a today calls for a 70% chance of light rain on Saturday. It should remain relatively dry through 2p with likelihood of light rain showers increasing as the day goes on. Accumulation of < 0.10" so this isn't going to be monsoon conditions. Winds during the day are easterly at 7-9mph and 6mph during the evening game. Temps start out in the mid-upper 40s and top out in the low 50s.
            There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

            Comment


            • #36
              ...... one comment about the weather affecting the game.

              There's a good deal of hand-wringing about this. Unless the forecast is totally wrong (and I don't think it is) the field may be a little damp but the ball will be dry if the Refs do their job. It's not going to be that cold (50s) or windy (6-9mph out of the East) either.

              But, it's a SE Michigan weather forecast. Not always accurate, Bob.
              There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

              Comment


              • #37
                Shut the fuck up Donny!

                Comment


                • #38
                  Decent preview of this game up at mgoblog. Cliff notes:

                  Minnesota's QB, Demry Croft replaced Conor Rhoda midway through the Michigan State game.

                  He led a furious, if futile, comeback against the Spartans, averaging 8.2 YPC and throwing three touchdowns in 20 attempts. He threw a pick, and MSU was in one of those fourth quarters where you're going to win if you don't do anything stupid like give up a quick TD. Croft was more or less allowed to gradually matriculate down the field.

                  The entire picture on Croft though can not be that reassuring for Gopher fans. He's not good. He does lend a running aspect to the Minnesota O that Rhoda did not so, there is that. But he is not jt barrett v. PSU - not even close. Minnesota has no passing game and it appears Fleck elected to put Croft in to make his spready offense more run orient at the expense of the passing game. That has not worked out.

                  Minnesota actually has a statistically worse run defense than Rutgers. Yep, you heard that right. So, guess what? If this plays out tomorrow night and M continues on the trajectory of an improving run game then that is what you will see.

                  Brian pegs Peters for 27 attempts that will amount to a few downfield throws on standard downs and short yardage pick-ups to TEs and Perry to move the sticks on third down when necessary.

                  I'm thinking less than that as if it is possible, Harbaugh will club Minnesota, get out of the cold night air and/or rain (if it comes) and call it a game.

                  Ty Isaac, Kareem Walker, and Mike Onwenu all limped or staggered off the field late in that game. If the two running backs can't go, expect a much heavier dose of Chris Evans as he picks up carries after Higdon; O'Maury Samuels also figures to get his first carries outside of garbage time. Onwenu's absence would be much bigger, figuratively and literally. Jon Runyan Jr has deputized at times this year and played fairly well, but he is not a man-planet with ballerina feet.

                  I really don't think it matters who is playing at RG or who the RBs are. M is going to have success in the ground game and if it doesn't we're going to see if Peters is to become The Anointed One..... or not.

                  Read the whole thing here:

                  Essentials WHAT Michigan (6-2) vs Minnesota (4-4) WHERE Michigan Stadium, Ann Arbor MI WHEN 7:30 EST November 4th, 2017 THE LINE Vegas: M –15.5 S&P+: M –9.3 TELEVISION FOX TICKETS can be had WEATHER mid 40s, 50% chance of rain, minimal wind Minnesota isn't wearing this helmet, and this makes me sad. Overview Minnesota is in "year zero" under boat-rowing maniac PJ Fleck and, like so many Minnesota teams before them, is trying to scrape out bowl eligibility. They need two more wins in their closing stretch of Michigan-Nebraska-Northwestern-Wisconsin, so an upset here would get them most of the way towards that—have you seen Nebraska this year folks?—and secure the Brown Jug for what would no doubt be another statewide tour, except with groupies and amphetamines. Lose and it's mostly a shrug, because year zero, people! So that's good for them because they're probably going to lose. One complicating factor: the weather. Current assertions have backed off the 90% chance of rain and dialed it down to 50%. MGoWeather is saying there will be an "occasional shower" and warns about "a few raindrops." Also, MLive has a detailed article on the situation as of yesterday; it asserts that even if the rain does come it will be "a few hundredths to one-tenth of an inch," which is a light drizzle I think? So probably nothing that would impact the game. Run Offense vs Minnesota #relevant Michigan will attempt to maintain their level of performance from last week against an outright bad rush defense. Minnesota is 82nd in S&P+, which is five spots worse than Rutgers even after they got gashed for 7.6 YPC last week. Their most relevant previous outing was against Michigan State; LJ Scott went for 194 yards on 25 carries with Madre London chipping in 74 on 17 as MSU won while completing nine passes. (Hey! I bet we can complete nine passes!) Notably, this is the only game against a non-tomato can in which MSU's rushing offense has done anything. They're stuck at 88th in S&P+. Maryland and Purdue also gashed the Gophers for around 6.4 YPC; outings against Iowa and Illinois were more competitive against rush offenses ranked around 70th. Michigan's month-long upswing finds them nearing legitimately good at 21st. This should be another productive outing and possibly another paving. If it's not one major reason will be Minnesota's willingness to be aggressive. Per Seth this was their usual deployment against Iowa heavy sets. That is an 8.5 man box; Rutgers was willing to go at Michigan with 7 or 7.5 much of the day. But Minnesota's been doing that much of the year and they're still scuffling badly. Minnesota's status here is a bit of a surprise since they entered the year with a hyped-up NFL draft prospect at nose tackle named Steven Richardson. Richardson is in the Glasgow vein and will be a tough handle: Iowa spent most of the day running outside zone away from this guy but that meant trying to double the 330-pound DT who’s really more like 360 pounds and Richardson would just flow down the line and stop it anyway. Michigan was able to run power (which attacks much the same spot as outside zone) all day against the good DTs of Rutgers but Kugler is going to find keeping Richardson out of the backfield hard enough; cuts to the backside are unlikely to feature nearly as much. ... Needless to say I really hope Onwenu’s ding last week was precautionary. Kugler and Runyan versus this guy sounds like a bad day. Seth did the recent Minnesota-Iowa game and came away with a different picture of the Minnesota defense than the stats show; that may be an artifact of an Iowa offensive line that is struggling badly. Minnesota starts a 245 pound sophomore and a 270 pound freshman at DE, so expect Michigan tight ends to continue getting after it on the ground. Seth: Former blue chip SDE Carter Coughlin is undersized for a 4-3 over strongside end and makes up for it by getting aggressive, for better and worse. In their passing down sets Coughlin will often drop into coverage, where he was a consistent disaster. WDE Nate Umlor is just a guy; he’s solid against the run and not much of a pass rush threat. The Gophers' top spacebacker is out and Seth marked both safeties—also injury replacements—with cyan this week. This looks like another situation where the edges are going to be caved in with some frequency, whether it's on power or the occasional crack sweep that catches the opposition off guard. Given the prevalence that crack has featured in the last couple games, Michigan might find it profitable to bring out various zone plays and the like that rely on defensive overreaction to the threat of a crack; that split-action pitch from Purdue that they've shelved might be a winner. For its part Michigan is coming off a paving of Rutgers unparalleled in recent history, but there are some injury question marks after Ty Isaac, Kareem Walker, and Mike Onwenu all limped or staggered off the field late in that game. If the two running backs can't go, expect a much heavier dose of Chris Evans as he picks up carries after Higdon; O'Maury Samuels also figures to get his first carries outside of garbage time. Onwenu's absence would be much bigger, figuratively and literally. Jon Runyan Jr has deputized at times this year and played fairly well, but he is not a man-planet with ballerina feet. Michigan's moved closer to MSU philosophically as the season's gone on (ie: run a bunch more gap schemes) and won't mechanically pound the same zone plays like Iowa did; also they seem definitively better than the ground games of Minnesota's other opponents. I don't know if you can ever expect a 300 yard outing, but 200 seems in the offing at a solid 5-6 yard clip. KEY MATCHUP: A MAN IN THE DESERT vs AN OASIS ON THE HORIZON. Please don't be a figment of our addled imagination. Please be real, with water and... coconuts? Is that a thing? Or is that just islands? [Hit THE JUMP for... the same barely functional Big Ten QB]
                  There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

                  Comment


                  • #39
                    Ideally, get out ahead early and run passing drills. I hope Walker can go. I really want to see Walker get some carries.

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                    • #40
                      Why isn't Gus calling this game? Hes not even on the FOX football schedule tomorrow.

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                      • #41
                        Because he fucking suuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuuucks
                        I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it on

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                        • #42
                          Yea, but like, Peanut disagrees with your opinion, man.

                          [ame]https://twitter.com/shawndrobinson3/status/924413167018610689[/ame]
                          AAL 2023 - Alim McNeill

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                          • #43
                            Who the hell is Peanut?
                            I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it on

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                            • #44
                              Originally posted by WingsFan View Post
                              Why isn't Gus calling this game?
                              Because Fox prefers to put Gus Johnson on games that will be watched by more than about six people.

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                              • #45
                                Heh heh
                                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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