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Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season

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  • Originally posted by THE_WIZARD_ View Post
    I heard HARBAUGH!!! has invented a new way to lift worries Blue Nation...
    Does it include those special milkshakes that Tom Osborne's boys used to drink?
    I'll let you ban hate speech when you let me define hate speech.


    • Originally posted by Hannibal View Post
      Gassed maybe but they just flat out quit against OSU.
      Agreed. I don't know if they flat-out quit, but they as a unit failed to pull one out of their ass on behalf of the offense, like any truly great defense does a few times a year. The defense always did its part, but never just took the fuck over and insisted on it.


      • If you like fancystats, this is pretty good. M is projected as 4th in the BTE based on projected 2018 S&P+. This stat includes SOS and that M has the toughest schedule compared to other BTE contenders is reflected in that projection. A couple of breaks on the road v. MSU and osu and that entire calculus changes.

        I found M's complete defensive efficiency v. explosiveness chart for 2017 interesting (I didn't look at anything footballish after the osu loss for a long time). M had one of the top three spots nationally, I think, in defensive 3rd down efficiency.. That shows up on the Y efficiency axis on the chart. But they also didn't have a lot of explosive plays (e.g., TFLs, sack rate) and, if I've got this stat right, the ISOppp on defense includes big plays of greater than some number as a negative factor in the calculation. Anyway, you increase TFLs and sack rate then cut down on big plays, M is going to be very tough on D in 2018.

        In the not so objective area, where Connelly is going with his own ranking methodology (lowest score is best) eg. for QBs, I'd ask is Shea Patterson or Brandon Peters to rank lower than all 4 of the QBs ahead of them (in order of the BTE contenders, PSU, osu and MSU? I think not. I also think McSorely is being given too much credit. We'll see. I think the rest of the unit rankings are pretty decent but the QB ranking really skews the point total agaisnt M. If the QB ranking went like this: (1) MSU 1pt, osu 4 pt, M 6 pts, PSU 8 pts, Wisky 10 pts, you'd have a subjective team ranking, by Connelly's method of osu (21), M (25), Wisky (26), MSU (30), PSU (33). I'm more comfortable with that outcome in the BTE (osu, M, MSU, PSU - and MSU and PSU are interchangeable) than I am with Connelly's projection.

        Again, guess we'll see. At least I feel better about M actually being in the discussion as a contender than I did in 2018 after i saw a couple of games.

        On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."


        • I don't know how anyone can make an informed prediction when we haven't seen the O-line under Warriner, the wide receivers under McElwain, or Shea Patterson under center. The schedule will definitely be a factor, but who knows how the offense will perform? And it will probably take them several games to gel together. I am hopeful that they will be pretty good by the end of the season.
          I'll let you ban hate speech when you let me define hate speech.


          • This is a good read. The Memphis offense under HC Mike Norvell would be a perfect fit for JH's love of the TE, including two TE-sets, and what we know about Shea Patterson's skill set. I've got my doubts that M's offense will look like the Memphis offense with Patterson at QB. I will say that you can run power with Memphis' approach and that might be appealing to Harbaugh in his efforts to rejuvenate his previously moribund offenses since he's been M's HC.

            On Harbaugh's expectations for M football in 2015 (NFL NETWORK): We'd rather be about it than talk about it."