Originally posted by THE_WIZARD_
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Michigan Football, Team 139, 2018 Season
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Originally posted by Hannibal View PostGassed maybe but they just flat out quit against OSU.
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If you like fancystats, this is pretty good. M is projected as 4th in the BTE based on projected 2018 S&P+. This stat includes SOS and that M has the toughest schedule compared to other BTE contenders is reflected in that projection. A couple of breaks on the road v. MSU and osu and that entire calculus changes.
I found M's complete defensive efficiency v. explosiveness chart for 2017 interesting (I didn't look at anything footballish after the osu loss for a long time). M had one of the top three spots nationally, I think, in defensive 3rd down efficiency.. That shows up on the Y efficiency axis on the chart. But they also didn't have a lot of explosive plays (e.g., TFLs, sack rate) and, if I've got this stat right, the ISOppp on defense includes big plays of greater than some number as a negative factor in the calculation. Anyway, you increase TFLs and sack rate then cut down on big plays, M is going to be very tough on D in 2018.
In the not so objective area, where Connelly is going with his own ranking methodology (lowest score is best) eg. for QBs, I'd ask is Shea Patterson or Brandon Peters to rank lower than all 4 of the QBs ahead of them (in order of the BTE contenders, PSU, osu and MSU? I think not. I also think McSorely is being given too much credit. We'll see. I think the rest of the unit rankings are pretty decent but the QB ranking really skews the point total agaisnt M. If the QB ranking went like this: (1) MSU 1pt, osu 4 pt, M 6 pts, PSU 8 pts, Wisky 10 pts, you'd have a subjective team ranking, by Connelly's method of osu (21), M (25), Wisky (26), MSU (30), PSU (33). I'm more comfortable with that outcome in the BTE (osu, M, MSU, PSU - and MSU and PSU are interchangeable) than I am with Connelly's projection.
Again, guess we'll see. At least I feel better about M actually being in the discussion as a contender than I did in 2018 after i saw a couple of games.
There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!
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I don't know how anyone can make an informed prediction when we haven't seen the O-line under Warriner, the wide receivers under McElwain, or Shea Patterson under center. The schedule will definitely be a factor, but who knows how the offense will perform? And it will probably take them several games to gel together. I am hopeful that they will be pretty good by the end of the season.I'll let you ban hate speech when you let me define hate speech.
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This is a good read. The Memphis offense under HC Mike Norvell would be a perfect fit for JH's love of the TE, including two TE-sets, and what we know about Shea Patterson's skill set. I've got my doubts that M's offense will look like the Memphis offense with Patterson at QB. I will say that you can run power with Memphis' approach and that might be appealing to Harbaugh in his efforts to rejuvenate his previously moribund offenses since he's been M's HC.
There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!
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No surprises here from osu country in terms of the rankings and player picks. I think it's going to be tough going for prognosticators of all stripes to separate MSU, PSU and M until we actually see each of the teams play 2-3 games. Question marks for me are:
How good is Dwayne Haskins going to be as osu's starting QB?
How good is Trace McSorely going to be without Barkely and two of his top receivers from 2017, Gesicki and Hamilton?
State returns 19 starters from a 10-3 2017 team. They are going to be good with Lewerke but how good? I'm not sold on Lewerke just like I think McSorely is over rated.
How good is M's OL going to be in giving patterson, or less likely Peters, time to do thier thing and what thing is the offense going to do?
2018 Cleveland.com Big Ten Preseason Poll
BIG TEN EAST
1. Ohio State, 191.5 points (23.5 first-place votes)
2. Michigan State, 142 points (2)
3. Penn State, 141.5 points (1)
4. Michigan, 140.5 points (1.5)
5. Maryland, 75.5 points
6. Indiana, 60 points
7. Rutgers, 33 points
BIG TEN WEST
1. Wisconsin, 196 points (28 first-place votes)
2. Iowa, 155 points
3. Northwestern, 138 points
4. Nebraska, 104 points
5. Purdue, 98.5 points
6. Minnesota, 64.5 points
7. Illinois, 28 points
BIG TEN CHAMPIONSHIP GAME
Ohio State over Wisconsin (14)
Wisconsin over Ohio State (9)
Wisconsin over Michigan (2)
Wisconsin over Penn State (1)
Wisconsin over Michigan State (1)
Michigan State over Wisconsin (1)
PRESEASON BIG TEN DEFENSIVE PLAYER OF THE YEAR
1. Nick Bosa, Ohio State DE, 74 points, (20 first-place votes)
2. Rashan Gary, Michigan DE, 38 points, (6)
3. T.J. Edwards, Wisconsin LB, 24 points
4. Devin Bush, Michigan LB, 14 points (1)
5. Paddy Fisher, Northwestern LB, 8 points (1)
6. Joe Bachie, Michigan State LB, 5 points
7. Chase Winovich, Michigan DE, 2 points
8. D'Cota Dixon, Wisconsin S, 1 point
8. Olive Sagapolu, Wisconsin DT, 1 points
8. Khaleke Hudson, Michigan LB, 1 point
There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!
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How good is Dwayne Haskins going to be as osu's starting QB?
How good is Trace McSorely going to be without Barkely and two of his top receivers from 2017, Gesicki and Hamilton?
State returns 19 starters from a 10-3 2017 team. They are going to be good with Lewerke but how good? I'm not sold on Lewerke just like I think McSorely is over rated.
I would take McSorely over everyone else in the B10, at least at this stage. There's a remarkable seemingly interminable "MGO Bias" against Franklin and "Arm-Punt" that runs deep amongst M fans.
Michigan has 11 straight games without a WR catching a touchdown pass. Wow.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
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Originally posted by iam416 View Post
Funny how there's a lot of QB questions there but one of them isn't "How good will Shea Patterson be?"
I would take McSorely over everyone else in the B10, at least at this stage. There's a remarkable seemingly interminable "MGO Bias" against Franklin and "Arm-Punt" that runs deep amongst M fans.........
The hype about Patterson is mitigated in my mind by tape showing how bad he looked against good defenses. Ol'Miss's Ol was probably as bad if not worse than M's but still, the Ol'Miss O was designed to overcome that deficiency and Patterson made plenty of bad decisions/throws when defenses figured out how to neutralize any tactical advantage Ol'Miss's coaches thought that they could put out there on the field. Lots of mistakes on tape.
I could be way wrong on McSorely. I get the "arm punt" stuff coming from Mgo Board. That's not who I'm getting my doubts about McSorely from. My doubts come purely from the facts that PSU OC for 2017, Joe Moorhead, has replaced Dan Mullen as HC at Mississippi State so, he's gone. Gesicki and Hamilton are gone. Barkley is gone. I have no idea what the PSU depth chart looks like but, those are huge losses so, maybe it's less about McSorely and more about his surrounding cast that made him appear to be really good last season. We'll see.Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; July 23, 2018, 02:05 PM.There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!
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Originally posted by iam416 View Post
Funny how there's a lot of QB questions there but one of them isn't "How good will Shea Patterson be?"
I would take McSorely over everyone else in the B10, at least at this stage. There's a remarkable seemingly interminable "MGO Bias" against Franklin and "Arm-Punt" that runs deep amongst M fans.
That's staggering. Welp, what do you expect after Hoke's OL recruiting/development debacle?
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Originally posted by iam416 View Post
Funny how there's a lot of QB questions there but one of them isn't "How good will Shea Patterson be?"
I'll add a third: 3) we're merely hoping he's going to be good and don't really want to ask that question
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Originally posted by Hannibal View PostI just saw this stat for the first time that I was not aware of....
Michigan has 11 straight games without a WR catching a touchdown pass. Wow.2012 Detroit Lions Draft: 1) Cordy Glenn G , 2) Brandon Taylor S, 3) Sean Spence olb, 4) Joe Adams WR/KR, 5) Matt McCants OT, 7a) B.J. Coleman QB 7b) Kewshan Martin WR
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Originally posted by iam416 View PostI would take McSorely over everyone else in the B10, at least at this stage. There's a remarkable seemingly interminable "MGO Bias" against Franklin and "Arm-Punt" that runs deep amongst M fans.
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