Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[WM Wolverine]

Six true sophomores projected to be starters on the defense (3 other first time starters) and tons of true freshman projected on the 2-deep. If this were Hoke's, RR's or even Lloyd's defenses, I'd expect any opposition with some play makers to score 30 a game...

Game #1 vs Florida will show us a lot about how good of a coaching staff we have at getting young players ready to play B1G football. I'm taking the under on the defense but taking the over on the offense.

We're #130 out of 130 teams in 'experience.' If we're good in '17 (9+ wins), we should dominate the B1G in '18.

[iam416]

Will Ohio State be playing in the B1G in 2018?

[WM Wolverine]

To win the B1G, you're most likely going to have to beat the Buckeyes. Buckeyes will be in the CFP as often as they aren't while Urban is there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

8.6 wins seems to be the general consensus from reliable prognosticators. The lean is to 9 wins.

What this probably means is most likely losses are at PSU, at Wisconsin, osu +1 other loss (?Florida or Maryland).

What's standing between 8-4 and 11-1 and the BT Championship, CFP berth?

(1) Wilton Speight. Is he the first half of the 2017 Speight or the injured, deer in the headlights Speight of the second half...... and a lot of that has to do with how good the two tackles and blocking backs are in keeping him clean.

(2) The receivers. Big shoes to replace (Chesson, Darboh) for Crawford, DPJ and a whole lot of guys with potential behind them. Tight End play? Will Grant Perry return at the slot? I'd say if Speight is the #1 question mark, the production of the WRs/Slotty guys and TEs is 1A.

(3) Not withstanding mgoblog's smiley faces regarding the defense overall, the back end to include the Ss and CBs, is the clear #2/3 performance issue that will decide where M lands on the continuum of 8 to 11 wins.

Do I think M can go undefeated in the 3 OOC games and beat every team in the conference? The short answer is no.

[iam416]

From my outside perspective, there are two keys:

(1) Can M run the ball against good defenses? I expect M's running game to be plenty good against poopy teams, as it was last year, but it needs to be a threat against the teams that will make or break the season. That means way improved OL play + the addition of a guy with slightly more burst than beloved DeVeon.

(2) Can M's young corners hold up in press coverage? Again, against teams that M should flay this won't matter a great deal. The CBs will probably be good enough to match up against those WRs and the OL will be under seige. But, against good teams they will be on an island against quality WRs.

I think the other key is probably DPJ. He needs to be a least a 1(a) type target. If that happens then it frees up the other WRs. I tend to think he'll be that so I don't have much of a question to it. The two questions I mentioned above are very real to me and I'm not at all sure how they break.

[Hannibal]

2017 would be a lovely time for one of those crazy "surpass expectations" years that elite coaches produce now and then.

From my outside perspective, there are two keys:

(1) That means way improved OL play + the addition of a guy with slightly more burst than beloved DeVeon.

We already have that guy but he only got 88 carries last year for some reason. He averaged a little over 5 ypc in our three losses too. More than Smith averaged all year.

[Detroit Dan]

Yeah, there has been a lot of talk about how Harbaugh will play freshmen if they are better than upperclassmen, but so far not much action on that front (which is fine). For example, senior Mario Ojemudia started over junior Taco Charlton, if I recall correctly. Darboh and Chesson got the vast majority of snaps at wide receiver last year. Devin Asisasi didn't play that much behind the upperclassmen. Ditto Devin Bush. Dymonte Thomas played every down. The year before, seniors Morgan and Bolden played all the time at LB, Houma and Kerridge got to show their stuff as seniors. The list goes on and on.

If you are competitive, Harbaugh will give you a shot when your turn comes.

[Jeff Buchanan]

How do we know if the names on "the list goes on" aren't the best players and not the most senior as you seem to be implying. i.e., are you suggesting JH isn't really playing Freshman even though they are "better."

[Detroit Dan]

I don't claim to know better than Harbaugh (c:

I'm just noting that in Harbaugh's 2 years here there have been very few cases of younger players moving ahead of more senior players. I was working off of Hanni's observation that freshman Chris Evans got far fewer carries than senior Deveon Smith, even though Evans had a much higher average yards per carry.

I think there are advantages to giving the upperclassmen preference in terms of developing the players for professional careers. This has to be balanced against the need win in the short term, so Evans did move ahead of Ty Isaac in number of carries, for example.

[Hannibal]

I don't know if Smith got more carries last year because of seniority or because his ability to consistently get the 1 yard that his offensive line gave him made Harbaugh somewhat comfortable giving him the majority of the carries. Everyone always talked about how he is the ideal Harbaugh back because he was big and strong, so maybe Harbuagh felt that way too. Lots of programs have that plugger who gets the majority of the carries even when it is patently obvious that the better guy is sitting behind him. Unlike the QB spot, you get to see first hand what the guy really looks like in live fire situations, so the fans have more of a beef with the RB spot than they do with the QB spot, where you might have faith in the backup guy even if you haven't seen him play.

[WM Wolverine]

Smith was also sadly the best in pass protection.

[Hannibal]

Some statistics since it is the boring off-season:

Harbaugh's teams have averaged 79 rushing ypg in 6 losses and 218 ypg in 20 wins. I have said this before, but whether or not we will see any B1G championships in the next decade is going to hinge on whether we can find a way to run the ball against good defenses. The OL talent level, from a recruiting standpoint at least, does not sufficiently explain the numbers. The Greg Frey hire is an encouraging sign that the problem has been recognized. That 79 ypg needs to be more like 200. It used to be that no matter how good your offense was, a great defense could shut it down and hold you to under 20 points (like what FSU and Miami did so many times). Your expectation going into a game like that was that your defense would also have to dominate and you would have to win 17-14. Or, your QB would have to dominate ala Tom Brady vs. Alabama. That is no longer the case.

[Hannibal]

An OSU-related stat that I don't believe I have seen discussed:

Urban Meyer is 17-3 in one score games. I believe that includes two victories where the opponent failed a 2-point conversion at the end and four or five OT victories. The better team wins a majority of close games but that is a charmed existence, nonetheless. Nick Saban, by comparison, is 13-9 in one score games since his second year (when they started to dominate). And actually below .500 in the past 7 seasons. Harbaugh is 3-5 in his time at Michigan. That needs to change too.

[iam416]

He is 5-0 in OT games. That's clean living. The rest of his one-score record..meh. I mean, I'd also count the loss to VT as a one-score loss (Pick-6 with 60s left on a desperation pass made it 14) as well as the 2013 B10 CG that came down to a 4th down with 5 minutes left. I can also think of numerous 1-score wins where OSU was in control.

His most improbable, gold-shitting win remains the win against Purdue in 2012. There is absolutely no way they should have won that game.

Also, MSU did go for 2 last year, but there was 5 minutes left.

In any event, M needs to run the ball better!

[Hannibal]

Another stat -- the Pepcat last year: 98 yards and 2 TDs on the first five carries for Peppers. 69 yards on 22 carrries for 1 TD after that. Those games in the 2nd half of the season also included 2 catches for 3 yards. I don't know how the stats break down when he handed off the ball but I don't remember many (if any) successful running plays where that happened. Michigan's staff looked totally caught off guard by how prepared opposing defenses were for it. That was some Carr/Debord level coaching fail where they were trying to win with gimmicks that were new 10 years ago.