2023 NFL Draft - Mock drafts and games thread

[chemiclord]

The problem there is that any QB that knocks it out of the park so resoundingly that someone might want to trade up to grab him at #6 is probably getting snatched up by Seattle at #5.

[ghandi]

The problem there is that any QB that knocks it out of the park so resoundingly that someone might want to trade up to grab him at #6 is probably getting snatched up by Seattle at #5.

or Seattle may be willing to drop down for the right offer too....Even so that would be 3 QBs in top 5 which is good for the Lions at 6.......as far as I have heard Seattle is happy with Geno Smith and will pay him, even if it is just a franchise tag deal.

[chemiclord]

Oh, certainly... 3 QBs going in the top 5 would be great for the Lions... just not for the sake of a trade down.

[jaadam4]

Don’t know if it’s feasible to play two rookie CBs, but I wouldn’t be upset if picks #6 and #18 are both CBs. Eh, when the Lions have the 32nd ranked defense according to Brad Holmes… there’s only one way to go up.

Depends on what the Lions think of Okudah and Jacobs long term.

CB are high valued positions so it wouldn’t be the worst thing in the world. It just depends on what they think of Okudah. I don’t see them taking 2 CBs but i wouldn’t have an issue with it either

[jaadam4]

I still hope they trade back into the first round with the 2nd rounders at our disposal. It makes sense with that 5th year and the Lions don’t have major holes to fill. Go BPA with the first 2 picks and then fill with need on the rest

[Futureshock]

Don’t know if it’s feasible to play two rookie CBs, but I wouldn’t be upset if picks #6 and #18 are both CBs. Eh, when the Lions have the 32nd ranked defense according to Brad Holmes… there’s only one way to go up.

Depends on what the Lions think of Okudah and Jacobs long term.

Nah. What about your issues with stopping the other team running it right at you? And let's be clear, there is no Sauce Gardiner in this draft. There is 5 that are starter level guys, but not THAT good where I would want to jack away 2 1sts and blow off everything else.

Just remember, when you pick, you better be solving an issue because the remainder of your issues are still there. After awhile, your chances are finite and hopefully you've made the most of your selections and not just "covered" them. Using 2 picks on CB would be irresponsible. IMHO

[Futureshock]

The problem there is that any QB that knocks it out of the park so resoundingly that someone might want to trade up to grab him at #6 is probably getting snatched up by Seattle at #5.

I hope Levis and Richardson show tf out. If we can get 4 QBs picked in the first 5, we will have Carter. C'mon big Tony. Make it happen!

[Mainevent]

I've had in my mind that Chicago will take Anderson (at #1 or elsewhere) because he's a pass rusher and brings a star name to a premium position for a team that really needs one. But I forgot that Eberflus is a Tampa 2 guy, so Anderson is not a clean fit with that system. And there are apparently interviews of Eberflus outlining the importance of the 3-technique in his defensive system. So that would seem to point to Carter.

Likely doesn't impact the top 5-6, but will be interesting to see how they play it.

[Larsky]

This is going to be a long post (I’ve got time to kill and ink to spill), so bear with me.

I first came to the Forum in 1999(!), back in the FreeP days, when I was specifically looking for Lions draft chatter. I just love the NFL draft. I totally nerd out on draft day strategy.

So that’s why I’m not going to spend too much time here talking about specific players (focusing more on team needs). I’m more interested in the Lions’ draft strategy for the actual event. The question is whether or not the Lions can significantly improve their draft position by trading with other teams?

After an extensive review of possible scenarios and reading what the rest of you are saying here (and, yes, I just read this entire thread. Lots of goofy stuff in the early posts, BTW), here’s how I see it. For all you TLDR folks, the gist is: I think a Lions trade down is a likely favorable scenario, but there’s at least one other team with more incentive to trade down. So here we go.

OVERALL DRAFT CLASS OF 2023:

This draft is pretty deep at EDGE and CB. There are four blue chip QB prospects (Young, Stroud, Levis, Richardson) and some other okay prospects. With regard to NFL QBs, one view held by many execs and coaches (e.g., Kyle Shanahan) is that, at any given time, there are only, like, 6 or 7 truly elite NFL QBs on the planet, with about 15 to 20 other people who are good to adequate QBs. After that, good luck. So rolling the dice on getting that 10-year starter at QB is almost always worth it, if you’re in position to get one. And half of the elite QBs in the NFL were drafted at the top of the draft (that’s been true for a long time). Point is, the teams who need a QB are going to make the most noise on the first day of the draft.


THE FIRST SIX TEAMS:

Here’s the current draft order, with each team’s overall draft capital score (based on the Rich Hill draft value chart; higher numbers mean more draft capital). and total number of draft picks for 2023:

1. CHI: (1265, 8 picks)
2. HOU: (1451, 11 picks)
3. AZ: (845, 8 picks)
4. INDY: (774, 8 picks)
5: SEA: (1113, 9 picks)
6: DET: (1033, 8 picks)

And here’s a very rough guesstimate of each team’s needs:

1. CHI: DL, WR, OL
2. HOU: QB, WR, OL
3. AZ: OL, EDGE, CB
4. INDY: QB, CB, OL
5: SEA: ER, DL, OL
6: DET: irrelevant for the purposes of this section

What jumps out at me is how little draft capital both Arizona and Indy have for this draft.

Now, with regard to team needs, I see Houston and Indy taking QBs, with Chicago and Seattle going DL, and Arizona going either EDGE or OT or somewhere else.

And that brings us to the obvious conclusion: Arizona has a huge incentive to trade down in this draft. This is true for three reasons: (1) they don’t need to draft a QB, which is really the only reason to pick high in this draft class; (2) they could absolutely use more draft capital, and (3) they’re also bringing a new head coach, who would love to have more picks to help build the roster in their image. If Arizona trades down, that means the Lions are much less likely to trade down.

But what if Arizona stays put?

IF ARIZONA STAYS PUT:

I see the first five picks of the draft falling like this:

1. CHI: Carter/Anderson
2. HOU: Young
3. AZ: Anderson/Carter
4. INDY: Stroud
5: SEA: Murphy/Wilson/Skoronski

After this transpires, then Detroit’s at #6, followed by the Raiders, Falcons, and Panthers at #7, #8, and #9 respectively. I think the Falcons are going to stick with Desmond Ridder for next year, so I doubt they go QB with this pick; I don’t see them as a potential trade down partner for the Lions. But both the Raiders and Panthers need a QB, and both Levis and Richardson are available.

The other teams that need a QB are definitely the Saints (who don't have a 1st round pick this year) and probably the Jets (who pick at #13).

That's four QB needy teams and two blue chip QB prospects available in this draft, so I think it’s logical to imagine that those are the four teams that would most want to trade up with Detroit to get #6 and the QB of their choosing.

THE FOUR TEAMS WHO MIGHT TRADE UP FOR A QB :

Here’s a breakdown of the four teams with their current top pick, draft capital scores, and their total number of draft picks in 2023.

Raiders (#7, 721, 11 total picks)
Panthers (#9, 728, 8 total picks)
Jets (#13, 588, 7 total picks)
Saints (#40, 267, 7 total total picks)

And here’s how I see each team’s situation.

The Raiders have 11 picks in this draft, but 7 of those picks are in the 5th round or later. They aren’t in a strong position to trade up. They also will get their choice of Levis or Richardson here, so it’s hard to see how a trade up helps them. Maybe they could find a partner who’s willing to take a package of 6th and 7th round picks in exchange for a 3rd rounder, but that’s not what we’re talking about here.

The Panthers, on the other hand, have a major incentive to trade up, and the capital to make it happen. They absolutely need a QB. In addition to the #9 pick, they have two picks in the 2nd round and, more importantly, two picks in the 4th round. Why is this important? The Lions currently have no 4th round picks in this draft. That is, they have no picks between at #81 and #152. That’s basically two full rounds they’ll be sitting out and watching other teams snatch up players the Lions might want. That’s actually what happened last year (Kerby was drafted at #97, James Mitchell was next at #177). I foresee a trade in which the Panthers give us #9, one of their 2nd rounders, and one of their 4th rounders for our #6 and one of our 2nd round picks. The Panthers high second rounder is #39, and we’d give them #48 or #55.

I think the Jets could pull off a trade up with the Lions, but they have less capital to make it happen. They’d have to trade #13 and some more valuable picks (their 2nd rounder maybe? And for sure a 4th rounder!) to jump up to #6. It all depends on whether or not they think they can ride with Zach Wilson and Mike White next season. But they could do it.

The Saints do not have the draft capital in this year’s draft to make a move. But if they really wanted to make a move, they could offer a package that included their 2024 1st round pick. That could make sense, but I think they’d only do that if they fell in love with one of these QBs this year. Seems like a long shot to me.

So there you have it. I think it’s likely Arizona trades down out of the top 5. If they don’t, then I think it’s likely Carolina trades up with the Lions, with a slimmer chance of the Jets making a move, a very remote chance of the Saints trading up, and no chance of the Raiders trading up.

[jaadam4]

I hope Levis and Richardson show tf out. If we can get 4 QBs picked in the first 5, we will have Carter. C'mon big Tony. Make it happen!

If Levis would have went to any other team to start for he might have been the first pick in the draft. The kid has a cannon but that Kentucky team was a shit show. The OL, OC everything. I still think Indy takes him and he might have something

[Futureshock]

This is going to be a long post (I’ve got time to kill and ink to spill), so bear with me...

So there you have it. I think it’s likely Arizona trades down out of the top 5. If they don’t, then I think it’s likely Carolina trades up with the Lions, with a slimmer chance of the Jets making a move, a very remote chance of the Saints trading up, and no chance of the Raiders trading up.

The Raiders are rumored to going to trade up for one of the top 2 QBs which they would have to get in front of Indy. They'd trade their 2023 1st and 2nd and 2024 1st to make it happen. For ARZ they still can get the top OT and a bunch of other top picks WITH an additional 1st for next year. They would even throw in some later picks to sweeten the deal.

[Futureshock]

If Levis would have went to any other team to start for he might have been the first pick in the draft. The kid has a cannon but that Kentucky team was a shit show. The OL, OC everything. I still think Indy takes him and he might have something

NDSU and some other teams aren't exactly Alabama. The NFL will find talent and nobody cares. Kentucky is in the SEC so he's had some good competition and hopefully has put some good tape out there.

[chemiclord]

On top of all that, as much as Seattle is "happy" with Geno, they are keenly aware the guy is on the wrong side of 30 and has had all of one good year in the books.

If 3 QBs force their way into the discussion, I feel the Seahawks come into play.

[Da Geezer]

Don’t know if it’s feasible to play two rookie CBs, but I wouldn’t be upset if picks #6 and #18 are both CBs. Eh, when the Lions have the 32nd ranked defense according to Brad Holmes… there’s only one way to go up.

Depends on what the Lions think of Okudah and Jacobs long term.

In 1981, the 49ers chose four CBs in the first five rounds:

Ronnie Lott, Eric Wright, Carlton Williamson, and Lynn Thomas.

IMO, the Lions should select at least two CBs.

[Nick Pappageorgio]

IMO.....Getting to the QB faster is as good as having guys cover longer, and Glenn seems to get quite a bit out of lesser talent.

If the grades are the same DL>CB