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  • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
    A local Arizona polling group (ABC-15!) has it at +7 and they've been polling periodically for awhile. 538 may not have that in the hopper, yet.

    It's not +7. Either way.
    538 has it figured in. It's the OH Predicitive Insights poll on this list. Slightly older poll than several others.

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/arizona/

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    • It's a more recent version of the same poll. Same numbers, though.
      Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
      Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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      • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
        It's a more recent version of the same poll. Same numbers, though.
        Ohhhh ok, gotcha.

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        • Alt Righters Jacob Wohl and Jack Burkman were going to have a press conference today with a woman who claims Robert Mueller assaulted her.

          They still intend to hold the presser. but the woman now fears for her life and will not attend. her identity is being protected for her own safety.

          Quality work, boys.

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          • Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post

            Three most recent polls are D +4, R+1.2, and EVEN

            https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com...enate/arizona/
            The dates aren't the same but there's no way other than some sort of bombshell scandal that a race is legitimately shifting by 11 points in the course of a few days. The spread between polling outfits on most of these races is greater than the individual MoE being reported with each one of them. I think that the MoE number has some statistical assumptions built into it that fail to account for all kinds of factors, like whether one demographic is more likely to be sampled by any given polling technique.

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            • You should have those errors from time to time if you are polling correctly. If you don't have any outlier polls, some pollsters are holding back funky results, then its herding. None of those pollsters have a clue what the turnout model will be. Because Donald is the president, everything is effing all politics all the time and normally sleepy midterms are anything but sleepy. Margin of error is not BS, it is just a statistical fact of the poll.

              The simple fact is house race and senate races are highly suspect. Take any of these models with a grain of salt, 538 is running their model and some of the other sites are doing something similar but this is the 1st draft for most of those models.

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              • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                A local Arizona polling group (ABC-15!) has it at +7 and they've been polling periodically for awhile. 538 may not have that in the hopper, yet.

                It's not +7. Either way.
                I wouldn't say that. For that matter, I wouldn't write off the possibility that it is -7 and that Cruz is going to lose his seat in Tejas. It's extremely unpredictable but FWIW Realclearpolitics has the no tossups Senate race at 52-48 in favor of the Rs (with the Ds winning a handful of red states which to me would be a pretty big loss for the Rs) and the Ds with about a six seat margin in the House (but enough tossups to form a solid majority for either party if they all break a certain way.

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                • The +7 for McSally is a robo-poll. 538 gives it a C+ rating as a pollster, it doesn't mean its not right but live polls are always considered better.

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                  • And the pollster rating for Predictive Insights is based off a whopping two polls to establish the baseline. Rasmussen has earned their C+ grade with 711 polls to analyze.

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                    • Trump will be giving a speech on immigration later today. Hooray!

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                      • Sure beats listening to anything Obama had to say...like...ever.
                        Shut the fuck up Donny!

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                        • trump-rally-swamps-bernie-rally-florida2.jpg





                          SAD!

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                          • wcnwhQ-y0jehL1iy9Ygo39Ynq_6GYjyGwDo4nxd3gh0.jpg?width=500&auto=webp&s=f59606a2f682cc60bd746d3e1b7cfdadfef07301.jpg

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                            • 18ecv9m95rv11.jpg?width=618&auto=webp&s=9322075030ef17a12d47ead355361d1568554983.jpg

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                              • With these Stone-Bannon-Wikileaks emails, I can't tell which side leaked them to the NY Times. Stone to screw with Bannon? Bannon to screw with Stone? Unclear

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