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  • iam416
    replied
    They're going to win a race or two with a terrible candidate, but they will underperform. And losing Pennsylvania means they need to pick up 2. The best bet is Georgia and after that it's Arizona/Nevada. And that's assuming they hold Ohio.

    They've gone and fucked that up. But, fortunately, the House will be won.

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  • Hannibal
    replied
    Originally posted by iam416 View Post

    Whether they're our biggest problem or not, I applaud anyone who doesn't cower to Xi like LeBron and his NBA sycophant bitches.
    I'm OK with not cowering to China, but let's face it -- if we are promising to defend Taiwan, we are making a promise that the whole world knows we can't keep.

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  • Hannibal
    replied
    Originally posted by iam416 View Post

    The Arizona and Missouri Senate results give the Rs a chance to avoid EMBARRASSMENT. They may only lose the Senate 51-49 and then have a good chance to reclaim it in 2024 -- assuming DJT avoids any further asshat nominations. That said, sometimes getting the bejesus beat out of you when you should win or when you think you should win clarifies things. Watching DJT Senate picks piss away completely winnable races in PA, GA and even OH ought to send a message to Rs. As should the Kansas vote. There's an easy window to win on abortion and the Rs are far more likely to get there than the abortion-on-demand Ds.

    Anyway, I told you the Rs would botch the Senate. They'll still rip the House, but The Chairman (or Kamala) will continue to have free reign with judges.
    I wouldn't be so sure about the Senate. The Rs will win NC easily. Budd is in front there with the polls showing only an R +1 electorate (something that virtually nobody thinks is real). Wisconsin, Georgia, Arizona, Nevada, and New Hampshire are all winnable.. Guaranteed -- no. Winnable, yes. The key to winning them will be making the race about winning issues. Pennsylvania does look like a botched winnable race, but it's not over. Oz does suck but it's not like the guy that he's running against doesn't have his own issues -- he's a Far Left Berniebro in a state that has voted to the right of the national average in the past two Presidential elections. Ohio is probably the worst run race right now. Terrible endorsement by Trump. But even if JD Vance spends all of the summer visiting The Wall in Israel he's still the favorite in Ohio.
    Last edited by Hannibal; August 3, 2022, 09:16 AM.

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  • Dr. Strangelove
    replied
    The last poll in Arizona had Mark Kelly up double digits on any Republican in the pool. That could be partly name recognition, I dunno, but for as bad a candidate as Hershel Walker is, I think Georgia is still more likely to flip than Arizona.

    On the other hand the Arizona Republican ballot will have some truly deranged people on it and the split ticket folks may vote for Masters just because he's the least offensive of the bunch.

    Also, keep North Carolina in mind. Virtually no one is talking about that race yet and the few polls out there all seem to show it's pretty close. Republicans can't afford to lose that seat.

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  • Tom W
    replied
    Originally posted by froot loops View Post
    That Kansas ballot measure juiced Democratic turnout, it will be interesting to see how the same kind of measure affects the Michigan polls in November.
    There's zero interest in something so completely obvious. Republican leadership, especially in Michigan, have been terrified to piss off the "zero tolerance" Pro-Lifers and they'll get waxed for it - yet again. Thanks to them, we're looking to have have 4 more years of Whitler- and at least two more years of Tlaib in my district, since she's going up against a tattoo artist in the general.

    Hint: just because people don't like abortion (and abhor the idea that it's some sort of woman's "healthcare") doesn't mean that they don't think there are cases where it should be safe and legal.

    Thanks, assholes.
    Last edited by Tom W; August 3, 2022, 09:02 AM.

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  • iam416
    replied
    Originally posted by Hannibal View Post

    Meh. China isn't our biggest problem. Our Communist enemies are domestic.
    Whether they're our biggest problem or not, I applaud anyone who doesn't cower to Xi like LeBron and his NBA sycophant bitches.

    Leave a comment:


  • froot loops
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
    Democrats should absolutely not assume this means good things for them. Voting yes/no on a single issue in a vacuum is not the same thing as choosing between two candidates which, more often than not, is a "lesser of two evils" decision.
    That's definitely true, you can have a lot of ticket splitting. Tudor Dixon is campaigning on enforcing the abortion ban and if there wasn't a initiative it would be different. If the initiative looks like it will pass, it gives people maybe more permission to vote for Tudor Dixon.

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  • iam416
    replied
    Originally posted by Hannibal View Post
    Overall, it was a good night last night. The anti-abortion embarrassment in Kansas sent a loud message to the country and it has given the Rs a critical data point on which to make future proposals. No doubt, some of them will still try to 100% ban it, but at least some of them will hesitate to do that if they want to keep their jobs. Meijer going down in Michigan was great. Decent Senate candidates won in Arizona and Missourah. It looks like Lake will win the GOP nom in Arizona. She's a better candidate than Taylor-Robson although I don't think that the latter is bad.
    The Arizona and Missouri Senate results give the Rs a chance to avoid EMBARRASSMENT. They may only lose the Senate 51-49 and then have a good chance to reclaim it in 2024 -- assuming DJT avoids any further asshat nominations. That said, sometimes getting the bejesus beat out of you when you should win or when you think you should win clarifies things. Watching DJT Senate picks piss away completely winnable races in PA, GA and even OH ought to send a message to Rs. As should the Kansas vote. There's an easy window to win on abortion and the Rs are far more likely to get there than the abortion-on-demand Ds.

    Anyway, I told you the Rs would botch the Senate. They'll still rip the House, but The Chairman (or Kamala) will continue to have free reign with judges.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hannibal
    replied
    Originally posted by iam416 View Post
    Finally, belated kudos to Pelosi. Once Xi told her not to go she had no choice. Despite The Chairman pleading with her not to go. I don't get to say it often, so I'll say it now -- job well done, Nancy.
    Meh. China isn't our biggest problem. Our Communist enemies are domestic.

    Leave a comment:


  • iam416
    replied
    Finally, belated kudos to Pelosi. Once Xi told her not to go she had no choice. Despite The Chairman pleading with her not to go. I don't get to say it often, so I'll say it now -- job well done, Nancy.

    Leave a comment:


  • Hannibal
    replied
    Overall, it was a good night last night. The anti-abortion embarrassment in Kansas sent a loud message to the country and it has given the Rs a critical data point on which to make future proposals. No doubt, some of them will still try to 100% ban it, but at least some of them will hesitate to do that if they want to keep their jobs. Meijer going down in Michigan was great. Decent Senate candidates won in Arizona and Missourah. It looks like Lake will win the GOP nom in Arizona. She's a better candidate than Taylor-Robson although I don't think that the latter is bad.

    Leave a comment:


  • froot loops
    replied
    Originally posted by Hannibal View Post
    Re Trump: I stated back in January of 2021 that Trump should have followed Al Gore's example and continue to insist that he was the winner, but accept that he no longer had any legal avenues to pursue, and use it as a rallying point for future elections.

    BTW Al Gore, to this day, still insists that he won the 2000 election, despite the complete absence of any evidence of shenanigans or wrongdoings. He failed in his attempts to force in unlawful last second changes in how votes are counted or disqualified and cherry pick Democrat counties in which to recount the votes. Democrats, of course, had no problem with Gore dragging out the election an extra month and tearing the country apart over a clean and fair election that he lost fair and square, albeit very closely.

    "It's OK when we do it".
    Al Gore made a concession speech after the supreme court decision. He didn't devise a scheme to send fake electors and organize a mob to descend on Capitol Hill to fight like hell. I've never argued Trump didn't have the right to challenge results in court. Trump lost over 40 cases. Arguing it is the same thing is silly.

    It was obvious Trump lost fair and square a week after the election. He should have conceded he lost, told his supporters he lost and moved on.

    Leave a comment:


  • iam416
    replied
    Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
    Democrats should absolutely not assume this means good things for them. Voting yes/no on a single issue in a vacuum is not the same thing as choosing between two candidates which, more often than not, is a "lesser of two evils" decision.
    BLUE WAVE!!!!! BIDEN BOOM!!!!

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  • iam416
    replied
    FInally, a quick point the 7th C decision re arson. That's an utterly unsurprising, mundane case. The criminal statute includes the jurisdicitonal hook (affecting ISC). The prosecution has to show that the arson in question affects ISC. The Supreme Court has applied a specific test to this which, more or less breaks down like this -- burning down private homes=NO; burning down stores that traffic in goods and services across state lines=YES. The BLM indictment for arson was for burning down a jewelry story. It's remarkably straight-forward for anyone with a working understanding of our Constitution.

    Again, if you can tie abortion to ISC then Congress can regulate it. If you cannot, you cannot. And it's fundamentally a local action.

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  • Dr. Strangelove
    replied
    Democrats should absolutely not assume this means good things for them. Voting yes/no on a single issue in a vacuum is not the same thing as choosing between two candidates which, more often than not, is a "lesser of two evils" decision.

    Leave a comment:

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