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Why ----- explain your work, revise and resubmit.
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Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time -
Buchanan totally on brand.Comment
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When I was a child I had a fever
My hands felt just like two balloons
Now I've got that feeling once again
I can't explain you would not understand
This is not how I am
I have become comfortably numb"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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You may have been following the U-Dub's IHME studies. These are the studies that focused on resource availability v. projected use and allowed hospitals to plan for surges. Yesterday, using Infection Fatality Ratio (IFR) or Case Fatality Rates (CFR) per 1m population, a new model that predicts the date that the IFR rate is predicted to fall below 0 as a date that a state can start easing previously implemented mitigation and containment measures.
As a bonus, the model also predicts total US fatalities and fatalities by state. You knew this: US COVID-19 associated fatalities are predicted to now be right at 60K. Down 3k from the 13 April estimate...... and down by 100s of thousands from the Birx/Fauci estimates 2 weeks ago. Notes in Friday's model release report that some states are experiencing a longer plateau in IFR than others. Longer plateaus explains why some states have much later dates for easing than others.
The link below takes you to Friday's release from IHME. They took my advanced course on Precise Writing Skills 401 and failed. It's a tough slog to get through all of it.
Here's the visual they came up with for easing of restrictions dates by state based on using the proxy measure of IFR for disease spread v. control.
An Estimate.PNGMission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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(1) While I don't have a great deal of confidence in this model, I'm quite certain it's not calling for the IFR to fall below 0 before easing restrictions. Because, you know, math. (it's actually 1 per million).a new model that predicts the date that the IFR rate is predicted to fall below 0
(2) I do read your posts and, obviously, I'm worse off for it.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Something worth noting on data in general ...... it is becoming increasingly clear that case numbers are not a good measure of disease progression or control. I believe that is true even when those numbers are normalized across states using a population measure, e.g. per/1x.
Epidemiologists are choosing instead to use measures of death rates with IHME, which has become a leader in projecting stuff because their stuff has been almost dead on, using IFR.
Given that, I believe it's informative, to a point, to see country or state data but if one really wants to get a clear picture of what's going on around them, you have to look at county data. That's not always easy to find. I located the 426 page daily report from the Florida Department of Health at their web site that does this two days ago and have been following it for Broward County. Local news organizations are getting better at reporting useful data as reporters and editors learn how to do that. South Florida has a newspaper, The Sun Sentinel, that's doing a pretty good job of reporting current data, unlike the Miami Herald that would rather have it's reporters, write stuff that shits on Desantis (Only 4% of 850K unemployment applications have been processed is today's headline in that rag).
Anyway, my advice is to find your State Health Department's web page and start looking for data and/or find a well run, local news outlet that's reporting this stuff.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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TL;DR -- We don't know enough. You need to guide yourself with information that is near impossible to find.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Well, I tried to simplify matters, but noooooo, you had to jump in with your fucking calculator. But, yes, you'r right. What I should have said is that the data geeks in this model overlay "splines" on the raw numbers to make predictions. When the slope of the spline = 0 for a particular location, their measures of deaths for that location have peaked.Originally posted by iam416 View Post
I'm not going to run the numbers, I'll leave that up to your insane hygienic level of pickyness, but I'm pretty sure that there is a mathematical parallel between GR and IFR. So, when GR of infections as a measured (incorrectly in my view) by case #s declines below 0, the spread of the disease is said to be controlled. Likewise, IFR is a rate measure. When it declines below zero, deaths have plateaued and are no longer growing.
So, kindly fuck-off.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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We both need to go outside and exercise.Originally posted by iam416 View PostMission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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I suggest distracting yourself with the exploits of M football, HARBAUGH!!! and #SpeedInSpace!Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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I suggest you both stfu."The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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"It's a tough slog to get through all of it."
Kind of like one of your posts.
I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it onComment
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Former Treasury Secretary Paul O'Neill died yesterday. He was one of the most dysfunctional members of Bush's Cabinet in that he alienated nearly everyone over the course of his two-year tenure. He wasn't a lifelong politician and "spoke his mind" (much like someone else we know).
Could be wrong but he may be the first member of Dubya's Cabinet to die? Certainly from the major Departments.
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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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