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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx -
That is just the cocktail hour.Originally posted by Ghengis Jon View Post2012 Detroit Lions Draft: 1) Cordy Glenn G , 2) Brandon Taylor S, 3) Sean Spence olb, 4) Joe Adams WR/KR, 5) Matt McCants OT, 7a) B.J. Coleman QB 7b) Kewshan Martin WRComment
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“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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With all the sincerity and truthfulness of Donald Trump, China seeks to allay Talent's fears.
“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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In my COVID world, one of the most confusing issues is testing. Experts say to re-open requires "mass" testing. After all, that's what SK did and they've managed to contain the virus, right? Germany touts this strategy as well as a means that state used to begin re-opening as I write this.
SK HAS conducted significant numbers of tests and leads the world in tests per 100,000 people. But that is only half the story. SK began preparing for virus containment in the second week of January, and were, according to reports, better prepared to mount testing and containment strategies than any nation in the world. That is because they had practice in both the MERS and SARS-COV-1 epidemics, saw weaknesses in their public health system and fixed them in preparation for the next virus invasion.
SK didn't actually try to test everyone but instead pursued an aggressive strategy of "targeted" testing and intrusive contact tracing early on. There was rigorous quarantine measures not unlike China's and in a population that trusted their government and, to an extent, voluntarily complied. The Government paid persons that tested + to stay at home for 14d.
I think most Americans. including myself, think testing - PCR or antibody testing - the entire US population if this is, in fact, what must be done to re-open is an impossible standard to achieve. Even looking at this goal on a state by state basis doesn't change the math. At the national or state levels, it is certainly resource constrained. The other reality is that there will be large portions of the US population who won't comply if it were mandated. There's plenty of evidence that testing everyone is not required. What is required then?
The goal of the testing level recommended by the researchers would be to test nearly everyone who has mild or severe flulike symptoms, and an average of 10 contacts for each person who tests positive for the virus. Experts think it takes 152 tests/100K population and a sound contact tracing process to get there.
That goal, IMO, becomes manageable. The linked article above demonstrates how far each state has to go to reach what researchers think the testing rate needs to be: 152 tests per 100,000 population. It says nothing about how robust a state's public health system is to conduct the required contact tracing. At that rate, and with contact tracing set at 10 people per infected person, re-opening can be done safely.
In FL, the published testing rate as of 15 April was 47/100K population. You can see your state in the link above. FL's Governor Desantis spoke last week about increasing the number of the state's Public Health workers but to what extent I haven't seen anything specific.
there's no question that most states, including FL, are ramping up testing. FL now has three, unrestricted, drive up test centers in Broward and Miami-Dade Counties, with two more planned to open on Monday in Orange Co. (Orlando) and West Palm Beach Co. If you have symptoms, you can get a test. You'll get screened as you drive through to verify symptoms, cough, fever, headache, etc. If you don't pass the screen, you'get diverted out of the testing line. These test centers are supposedly manned and equipped to conduct around 1000 tests per day. In FL, antibody testing is underway but it is restricted to research trials and is also targeted to previous + and asymptomatic, high risk groups (e.g., nursing homes). No specifics on expanding antibody testing but I suspect it's being ocnisdered.
With the opening of the three I mentioned above, reported new case numbers went way up on Thursday, Friday and Yesterday. No surprise there. So did deaths and the numbers are less important than GR over a week's time as deaths are counted as they are reported not as they occur. While getting rate measures to zero or lower sounds like the best case scenario, experts state that a GR of of < 1.07 (7%) indicates fair control with one < 1.03 optimal to consider re-opening. FL's 38d growth rate is 1.22, the 14d average GR hovers right around 1.05. The "spline" or slope of the curve is not yet 0 but it's trending in that direction. You can see your state's data here (there's also a section if you scroll down to see your county's numbers).
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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Testing has to be at an availability level that those who do not show symptoms can still be tested upon request. Besides checking many of the at risk boxes myself, I care for a son with chronic asthma and an 87 year old mother. I have a pretty rigid no contact policy with the outside world, my wife being the intermediary. Although Ghengis Wife is also pretty careful, it would be nice if I could pay for a test on request for her.
Let's face it, the pre-screening is done solely because of the limited supply of tests. The result is asymptomatic carriers are ignored while attempting to identify those potentially in need of immediate care. Instead of offering grandstanding cash (see my above posted link), our so-called reps should be a little more concerned with finding solutions or at least clearing the path.“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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I saw on CNN this morning (why I watched that is another question) what is probably the beginning of campaigns framed in the context of the COVID crisis orchestrated by progressives of AOC's brand calling for what amounts to serious redistribution economic and social policies.Originally posted by Ghengis Jon View Post
The spokesman was an AA, Detroiter who is ostensibly representing the poor underclass in the city. The prevailing narrative that people of color are being harder hit by COVID than other's in the US was included. This group needs special consideration and help. A clarion call for the federal government to do all the things - and a whole lot more - on Bernie's platform, some of which fall squarely into the AOC, socialista camp.
What doesn't fall into that camp, however, is the plan being considered by D's to make $2K checks distributed in the same way the first $1200 checks for inclusion in the next round of rescue programs. That's what is commonly termed "helicopter money." All kinds of monetary and fiscal policy problems arise with this approach, to a lesser degree on the monetary side as, if I understand the plan, the money is debt, not simply printed, the later with the potential to ignite hyperinflation.
The current COVID circumstance is unique economically with respect to free money. It's not likely to stimulate a surge in demand or GDP growth like it would in a typical recession. What transpires in the COVID circumstance is completely unknown. Will recipients spend it is one question? It would serve to stimulate demand for groceries and household supplies, keep folks working in that small business sector employed so there is that. But, with the retail and service sectors shuttered, the biggest beneficiaries would likely be the banks who receive mortgage payments, loan and car payments they otherwise aren't receiving and can service the interest their investors earn off the loans they fronted. So, the huge number of small business guys - the hardest hit portions of teh US economy - won't benefit. For that reason, I;'m against it.
But, first, I'm biased because I don't need it and second, for those that do need it seeing the downside of helicopter money is a hard sell for those folks who are not going to understand this and just see programs like this as entitlements they deserve because ......Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; April 19, 2020, 08:58 AM.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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Yeah, it's going to be awful. We're already faced with two horrible choices. The Socialist Progs seem set on make sure we pick another, even worse, choice.I saw on CNN this morning (why I watched that is another question) what is probably the beginning of campaigns framed in the context of the COVID crisis orchestrated by progressives of AOC's brand calling for what amounts to serious redistribution economic and social policies.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Correct. One of the things I did not mention with respect to SK's containment success and to a similar degree that of Germany, is that in the case of SK, that country had stockpiled testing and PPE supplies (not the actual reagents) and perhaps more importantly, enacted national powers to direct production of PPE, test kits and reagents.Originally posted by Ghengis Jon View Post
In Germany's (and Italy's) case, I have read that both countries have a robust medical manufacturing and lab testing sectors. The Merkel government did NOT direct these sectors to do anything, e.g., nationalize production (Italy did). Instead with typical German pride, the private sector jumped to the rescue ....... never mind the Merkel government is paying them billions to do that. In the sectors benefiting, that's an example of effective stimulus that doesn't just give away money to citizens who may or may not spend it and that very likely only benefits the financial sector.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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Harvard says the amount of testing has to slightly more than triple today's rate to have a reasonable opportunity to ease restrictions.
“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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I wish they had sent mail-in test kits to everyone instead of money to low earners. Or maybe both?"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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For DSL"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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AA
A few dozen of his kool-aid drinkers showed up at the Ohio Statehouse yesterday. For the most part these people aren't those that've thought carefully and come to the conclusion that the economic harm is worse than the disease. Most of them flat out don't believe the disease is dangerous.
I feel bad for the auction house guy in the video because he's simply frustrated and desperate about having his business shut down and not being able to get unemployment. But most of the others are a collection of nuts and cranks. People waving Confederate flags. People screaming about globalism. Anti-vaxxers. People saying faith in God is all the protection we need. People blaming common core math (a legit lol from me on that one). There was one guy there (not in the video) holding up a viciously antisemitic sign.
Most of the media should start ignoring these protests. They aren't even representative of critics of the shutdown, to tell you the truth. FoxNews won't, because they're desperate to turn this parade of clowns into the next Tea Party. But they're in for disappointment because polls continue to show the vast majority of people believe the shutdowns are necessary and far more are worried about coming out of shutdown too fast rather than staying in too long.
Oh and turn down your volume if you watch. These people are fucking noisy.
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"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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Luxury department store Neiman Marcus expected to declare bankruptcy this week. COVID shutdown will get a lot of blame but this was a long time coming it sounds like. Roughly 14,000 employees.
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