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  • Amid AP, CNN and other's featured headline stories, "Florida's New COVID Cases Surge," FL's R(t) dropped below 1.0 (0.99). I went though all the data yesterday. This is getting tiresome. You'd think the mainstream media would pick-up on this hackneyed headline.

    TBF, the articles behind the headline did report FL's % +s were stable at 4% despite increased testing - I told you about the real numbers behind this yesterday too. Stunning levels of misleading information out there about the pandemic in the US though for public consumption...... which leads me to report on economic news:

    The DJIA closed up for the 6th straight day with the NASDQ posting an inter-day record. The S&P 500 erased it's loses for the year. WTF? ..... and don't get me wrong, this is very good news for investors here, including me.

    The National Bureau of Economic Research, the official body that does this, declared today the US is in a recession. The steep decline in employment and income is the worst since right after WWI and WWII, much sharper than the recession of 2008, with unemployment, now at 13.3%, reaching similar levels of the Great Depression at estimates of 20-25% at their worst points. Economists and most notably the markets, shrug. A lot of this has to do with the unique circumstances of this historically unprecedented global economic downturn that economists are coming to recognize.

    Here's my take on what's going to happen going forward. Surviving companies are going to adapt by cutting costs and that means payrolls. It's already happening. PPG is an example. They announced today they are cutting 70K jobs world wide. Government jobs, usually a stabilizer of employment, are in the shitter due to on-going and forecast revenue losses due to COVID. This is actually going to get rid of a lot government dead weight. The US economy will become lean and mean with or without a foolishly constructed second bailout, fashioned by the D's that is arguably unnecessary. I could detail why but read about how this works yourself.

    The bad news is that the pain is going to fall on the socioeconomically disadvantaged work force on the low end of the pay-scale. A lot of jobs eliminated in corporate purges, a lot jobs in the travel and leisure sectors, aren't coming back. If they do, it will be slowly ..... years. I would not want to be an airline pilot right now. When the PPP ends, we're talking about massive furloughs in that industry. From what I can tell, I think it will take something completely unexpected for cruise lines to return to operations this year/before a vaccine is available and scaleable, let alone profitability. There are going to be casualties and that industry employs 100s of thousands of workers. NCL is on the brink despite reassurances and rising stock prices. Royal Caribbean will run out of bridge money they gained by some creative financing in September. There are plenty of other companies that won't adapt and streamline operations to insure thier profitability.

    What that means is a growing and restive global underclass some of them impoverished and starving to death. Developed countries won't be immune and I believe the US is particularly vulnerable to civil unrest. Most of us here will be fine but the rest? Man, I don't know. The progs will happily give away the farm to keep the restive masses placated ...... socialism and communism will look awfully appealing. History could be a remarkably good guide but any lessons learned from that are not likely to be applied. That's the way it works unfortunately.

    The PRC will work their butts off to make the free world look bad and them good. This particular blending of circumstances may present a bigger challenge to the democracy and freedom we enjoy than any economic fall-out from COVID that will persist for, some say, a decade.
    There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

    Comment


    • Originally posted by Tom W View Post
      ...If you think Trump was a clown, then wait until this guy rolls out on stage. He'll be like the 8th Plan from Outer Space. The 9th Plan, though, is the one might be scary....
      Donald Trump makes me wish I had voted for Hillary. NO ONE is worse than Donald Trump. I would happily vote for assclowns like Ted Cruz or AOC over Trump.

      The media will still have plenty of fodder with Biden. He's a gaffe machine - but without the venom, ill intent, childishness, stupidity or ignorance of Trump. We will once again be able to laugh when the President misspeaks, not bury our heads in our hands muttering "Jesus tap dancing Christ, what an absolute fucktard".
      “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

      Comment


      • Originally posted by Tom W View Post
        Maybe I'm overestimating, but I don't think that the American public, as a whole, is ready to cash in their chips for the Left just yet. Yes, they control the mainstream press and they've brainwashed the millennials, but they really aren't calling a good game here. They've had almost 4 years to sink Trump and the best that they can come up with is Biden? If you think Trump was a clown, then wait until this guy rolls out on stage. He'll be like the 8th Plan from Outer Space. The 9th Plan, though, is the one might be scary.
        You act like Biden's some neophyte plucked from the woods. Everyone knows what they're getting with him. They know what they're getting with Trump, too.

        Biden's RCP average is currently +8.0. On this date in 2016 Hillary's lead over Trump was +3. Furthermore if you look at the polling over the course of 2016, Trump periodically closed the gap with Clinton several times. In the last week of the campaign he was on one of his upswings. There's been nothing like that versus Biden. No matter what Trump says or does, Biden's maintained a consistent edge and it's been getting bigger since April.

        Comment


        • I dunno, Buchanan, the markets may just be right.

          Great stuff on Florida, as usual. Of note, the WHO today said that asymptomatic spread is exceedingly rare.

          I also look at the Big 5 in the EU, and cases are essentially flat there. It’s quite possible that we really have got past the worst of it. If that’s true, then the markets are spot on and Jon is gonna lose a small fortune on all the sell puts he has when the DJIA was at 23.
          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

          Comment


          • The Woke Left will carry Biden’s water through November. They’ve already embarrassed themselves on Tara Reade (as compared to Kavanaugh). They don’t care about his crime bill. They’ll give him a pass for not wanting to disband police.

            But, the minute he wins he better damn well carry their water or they’ll turn on him. Bigly. And he doesn’t have it on him to stand up to the Woke Media. The NYT will turn on him and he’ll either literally get on his knees and beg forgiveness, like Tim Kaine, or get crushed.
            Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
            Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

            Comment


            • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
              I dunno, Buchanan, the markets may just be right.

              Great stuff on Florida, as usual. Of note, the WHO today said that asymptomatic spread is exceedingly rare.

              I also look at the Big 5 in the EU, and cases are essentially flat there. It’s quite possible that we really have got past the worst of it. If that’s true, then the markets are spot on and Jon is gonna lose a small fortune on all the sell puts he has when the DJIA was at 23.
              I don't know...what justifies the S&P or the Nasdaq being at record highs right now when unemployment is at 13% and consumer spending is nowhere close to its pre-covid level? You can argue that the market is looking 18 months ahead or whatever, that's an argument I hear a lot, but they rarely have that kind of foresight. So many things can happen between now and then.

              I mean hurray for my 401k and my mutual fund. I just checked for the first time in two months and they're both positive on the year now. But looking at what we've been through, where we still have to go, it's hard for me to think "yeah' it makes sense to be at a record high right now".

              Of course, the markets could now be thinking you know what? The Dems, the Republicans, and the Fed have all made clear they will prop this market up no matter what. Why should we ever sell?

              Comment


              • They may only be looking 4-6 months ahead.

                Could be the doomsday hysteria is wrong. Like waaaaaay wrong. I mean so wrong that “expert” forecasts are tainted for a looong time.

                We’ll see.
                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                Comment


                • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                  They may only be looking 4-6 months ahead.

                  Could be the doomsday hysteria is wrong. Like waaaaaay wrong. I mean so wrong that “expert” forecasts are tainted for a looong time.

                  We’ll see.
                  It's possible. To justify the market soaring to new heights, IMO, one has to believe that not only will all the economic activity lost since March 1 be replaced in the near future, it will exceed it. Unemployment will (in a few months) be back below 4% and maybe even get closer to 3.5%.

                  Meanwhile...

                  Comment


                  • This afternoon, Kayleigh McEnany says the call to push the protesters away from Lafayette Park was all Bill Barr. This evening with Bret Baier, Barr says things were so bad that at one point Friday night the Secret Service took Trump to the bunker. Flatly contradicting Trump's story that he only went to the bunker to 'inspect' it. And in the daytime for good measure.

                    Hmmmmm

                    Comment


                    • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                      I dunno, Buchanan, the markets may just be right..........I also look at the Big 5 in the EU, and cases are essentially flat there. It’s quite possible that we really have got past the worst of it. If that’s true, then the markets are spot on and Jon is gonna lose a small fortune on all the sell puts he has when the DJIA was at 23.
                      Don't get me wrong. I think the markets could be right but what they're excited about is the Fed and government pouring trillions into various fiscal and monetary policy relief and the survival of companies, merged, lean and mean, that are going to be profit machines. Developed economies are going be dominated by fewer competitors, lower production costs with labor out the ying yang begging for work at whatever companies will pay. It's like a purge - a house cleaning may be a better term - that only the brutal efficiency of capitalism should be able to accomplish and likely will. In it's purest form, Trotsky's (and Lenin's) orthodox Marxism could have done just as good of a job, maybe better in avoiding large numbers of displaced, disaffected and unemployed/underemployed. But, we know how that has turned out, the PRC and Vietnam (harkening back to Ho's idealism) having fared better than every other Communist country on the ash heap of history.

                      The downside of this house cleaning, as I mentioned, is high levels of socioeconomically disadvantaged and unemployed and the attendant risk of civil unrest. The progressives and the likes of Sanders socialists will benefit from recruiting this group to their way of seeing things and mobilizing it to their advantage. Historians believe that the French Revolution of 1789 was born of civil unrest when the Monarchy of King Louis ignored the poverty, unemployment and hunger of the masses while enriching themselves with profligate spending. The masses revolted and that resulted in the abolishment of the Monarchy and the establishment of the First Republic - nothing more than a brutal dictatorship by a six member Convention that conducted a "reign of terror" in the guise of restoring order only to solidify their own power.

                      There have been books written about the similarities between the French Monarchy and the source of real governance today through the collective power of global corporations and their executives - acting much like French royalty - enriching themselves at the expense of the working masses. I don't much buy into that trope but it is nonetheless an interesting idea. At some point in this restructuring of economies post COVID, it would be a bad idea for corporations to not find ways to accommodate those displaced in this streamlining that is going to take place.
                      There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

                      Comment


                      • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
                        The Woke Left will carry Biden’s water through November. They’ve already embarrassed themselves on Tara Reade (as compared to Kavanaugh). They don’t care about his crime bill. They’ll give him a pass for not wanting to disband police.

                        But, the minute he wins he better damn well carry their water or they’ll turn on him. Bigly. And he doesn’t have it on him to stand up to the Woke Media. The NYT will turn on him and he’ll either literally get on his knees and beg forgiveness, like Tim Kaine, or get crushed.
                        The big concern for me is who Biden picks for his VP.

                        I'll go ahead and say what everyone wants to say, but is too afraid to. His VP is going to be President before Biden even gets thru 2 years as Prez. The man is not well, and he will not serve a full term. His VP will most definitely be Prez no later than the halfway point of his first term.

                        Book it.
                        "What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"

                        Comment


                        • Welp, we have DSL going with "the markets are way wrong and calamity lurks" and Bucahanan going with "the markets are may be right and Revolution lurks" -- I'm gonna just ride with the markets are probably closer to right than wrong, and things will end up ok.
                          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                          Comment


                          • Well as one example. Boeing's stock has bounced back from $89 to $250 in just a couple months. They had an analyst on CNBC and asked him, what about Boeing's fundamentals have changed to make $250 a fairer valuation? His reply was basically nothing. They've had 4 straight months of shrinking orders. All the aircraft problems they had before covid still exist. Nothing of substance is different about Boeing now than two months ago yet its stock keeps going up. It can't be explained rationally -- it's just 'hunches' that the government would never let Boeing fail (likely correct).

                            In the past 5 days Hertz stock has gone up 500%. They're in the middle of bankruptcy proceedings. The same thing's been happening with JC Penny.

                            https://www.latimes.com/business/sto...pt-stock-hertz

                            Chesapeake Energy went up $45 yesterday (180%). It's already down almost $30 (43%) in the pre-market. Another company on the verge of bankruptcy.

                            I dunno...it just seems that there's a lot of speculative behavior right now, based not so much on substantive data. My 401k is happy though.
                            Last edited by Dr. Strangelove; June 9, 2020, 07:18 AM.

                            Comment


                            • My company is the same. Stock price has more than doubled since the middle of March. Losing money though. Whatevs. It's good for me for now at least. (knock on wood).

                              Comment


                              • I reiterate the importance of a healthy stock market for pensioners. Another 2008ish crash coupled with the retiring boomers would be really bad. A number of states are already fucked and they refuse to deal with the union contracts that fucked them. If we can somehow hold market value while we recover -- and we WILL recover -- then it's a fucking godsend.

                                I dunno. Maybe this really is 10X worse than the Great Depression or whatever the cataclysmic pronouncements were. What I'm most inclined to believe is that (a) people's predictions of catastrophe all over -- health, financial, everything -- were sincere in March. I was one of them; and (b) in this day and age, a prediction made must never yield to changing facts on the ground. So there are a lot of people that, IMO, are searching for ways to show that they're still right -- that things are still going to fall totally apart.

                                I've changed my mind. Both on Covid and the economy. I don't think we're in for a catastrophe for either. And I was pretty well convinced we were totally and properly fucked on both.
                                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

                                Comment

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