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  • More COVID stuff if you are not already sick of it ........

    Below is a link to a specific page for FL from RT.Live that I just started noticing. About 2 weeks ago, this group updated it's model to include what they call an implied infection curve. You can get to it for your state by clicking on "details."

    The upshot of these "details" is that this group of analysts alleges it improves the accuracy of R(t) and gives a better picture of infection rates/virus control or lack thereof. Statistically it probably does. For example, you can now see via the implied infection curve what these analysts think the actual number of positives in a days worth of testing v. the number or reported positives. But how useful is R(t) or any of it's variants in shaping PH policy?

    Up-to-date values for Rt — the number to watch to measure COVID spread.


    All of this made me search for a resource to review in my mind what R(t) is actually telling us before I drew any conclusions from the implied infections curve. Wow! I found an excellent article linked below. This may be one of the best articles I've read on the tricky business of using C-19 data to form PH policy, i.e., open/close shops, restaurants, bars? Open schools? It's good. I recommend a read.



    Bottom line: It's hard but, it can be done ..... except not in the hands of the lay press or the public. It takes disciplined epidemiologists to weigh all the factors, draw conclusions and make solid PH recommendations to officials making decisions about implementing or not implementing them. Full stop.

    We can get all depressed about rising case numbers and draw conclusions about what this means ...... and probably be hugely wrong. Sure, we can get a glimpse of what it means for FL's case #s exponentially rising but there are so many confounding factors that, in general, we, and certainly not the press, have a huge potential to be fucking way off base. To the point, there is no way that looking at this through our untrained eye and think, yeah, this cohort are the bad guys, these guys are good or do this or do that. We're going to be wrong most of the time.

    Hoping Governor Desantis and all the county officials in the state of FL making decisions about openings and closings, this or that mitigation measure are getting good input from trained PH epidemiologists who are reading the currently applicable literature. So far, I think they are. Likewise for elsewhere nationally
    There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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    • Happy Independence Day, even to New Jersey! A classic below from a different era of the internet.

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      • Heh ..... I had several ER shifts from 3p - 2a on the 4th/5th. I took those because pay differentials were huge. I made a bundle. The down side was treating a large number of burn injuries along with a smaller number of finger amputations from explosive forces.

        The funniest, because it was a pretty mild burn, was a guy who showed up with singed jeans, right in the crotch, where a buddy had dared him to ride some kind of rocket thing while a JackAss type video got shot. Well, he took up the challenge, put it between his legs, the video rolled and his buddy lit it off.

        Of course the predictable result occurred. Nurses got a huge kick out of this. I had to hold back a huge guffaw as I treated this dumbass. Most of his pubic hairs were gone and his sack was red as a beet. A bit of Silvadene cream, some depends like under ware for the lad and he was fine. But I can imagine it hurt like a motha.
        There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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        • Paywalled but the article was pretty good:

          Welcome to the newsletter highlighting The Economist’s best writing on the pandemic. Our cover this week argues that Joe Biden’s instinctive caution makes real change possible for America. Our election model gives Donald Trump a roughly 10% chance of winning a second term. There is a long time until November. Even so, Mr Trump’s difficulties have made a Democratic Senate majority possible. Mr Biden now faces a paradox, which he must not misread. The more he cleaves to the center, the greater the chances that he might win comfortably enough to get something done.

          You know. I like hopeful shit ..... a lot.
          There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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          • Happy Struggle Session Day! May all you spend the day flaying yourself over the awfulness of this country.
            Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
            Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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            • Originally posted by iam416 View Post
              Happy Struggle Session Day! May all you spend the day flaying yourself over the awfulness of this country.
              Yeah. #FvckTheFourth is tending on Twitter. I hate those people.
              "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln

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              • It's a free country. Nobody's holding them here.
                “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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                • In my WASP, old fart, "get off my lawn" grouchy old white guy moment of the day: ... I never thought I'd see the day when:

                  Visiting Mount Rushmore is considered a racist act. dang, .. I've had that on my bucket list forever, but away it goes, .. I guess ...
                  Singing at Church is declared illegal. (praise teams everywhere are on suicide watch)
                  ATTENDING religious services is declared illegal, and/or racist
                  Freedom of speech is considered hateful
                  Minding your own business is racist
                  Freedom of assembly is dangerous, and racist.
                  Standing for the National Anthem is racist
                  Saluting the flag is racist
                  Marching in a patriotic parade is racist
                  Flying the American Flag is racist
                  OWNING an American flag is racist.
                  Owning a gun is racist
                  Praying is racist and dangerous
                  Owning a Bible is racist. And btw, watch out people of other faiths, your holy books are on the radar next.
                  Burning down stores is honorable and patriotic
                  Police departments must be eliminated.
                  Fire departments, you're next.

                  I'll probably have a few more, but its still early in the day.

                  Now excuse me while I go outside and commit another racist act, by grilling some hot dogs and hamburgers on Independence Day.
                  "What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"

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                  • Originally posted by AlabamAlum View Post

                    Yeah. #FvckTheFourth is tending on Twitter. I hate those people.
                    Just to remind us as we doubt America and Americans, this is from one of my Marine buddies; posted without further comment:

                    On July 4, 1776, the Declaration of Independence was signed by 56 delegates from the 13 colonies. In conclusion, they wrote, "And for the support of this Declaration, with a firm reliance on the protection of divine Providence, we mutually pledge to each other our Lives, our Fortunes and our sacred Honor." As others have noted, many of them did indeed lose their fortunes and their lives. Thus, all across this great country, we honor them in our public squares and this weekend we remember them and their proclamation that all "are created equal, that they are endowed by their Creator with certain unalienable Rights, that among these are Life, Liberty and the pursuit of Happiness."

                    Of course, it took more than the words on paper in Philadelphia to win our freedom; it took the blood, sweat, and tears of a volunteer army of farmers, shopkeepers, blacksmiths, merchants, and militiamen who risked life and limb to secure that liberty and self-government. We remember and honor them too.

                    Nearly 120 years later, from a mountain top in Colorado, a college professor, Katharine Lee Bates, inspired by what she saw spread out before her and by what she had seen traveling across the country wrote "America the Beautiful". Her words recognized, not just the beauty of the country but the aspirations of its Founders: "God mend thine ev'ry flaw/Confirm thy soul in self-control/Thy liberty in law." And, "May God thy gold refine/Till all success be nobleness/And every gain divine." Finally, "God shed His grace on thee/And crown thy good with brotherhood/From sea to shining sea."

                    May we be awestruck by the vision of our Founders, humbled by the sacrifice of those who bought our freedom 244 years ago, and inspired by our potential as a great nation.

                    Have a safe, healthy, happy July 4th weekend.

                    There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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                    • Your buddy must be purged. It’s unacceptable to not hate this country.
                      Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                      Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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                      • 538 average on this date in 2016:

                        Clinton 42.7%, Trump 37.1%

                        As of today

                        Biden 51.1%, Trump 41.5%

                        Biden has a bigger lead but maybe more significant is that the number of undecided/3rd Party voters is less than half of what it was last time.

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                          • 'And crown thy good with brotherhood"


                            Words that are ignored today.
                            “Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho Marx

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                            • Also ignored AND actively taught against: “America the beautiful.”
                              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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                              • So, do you think reasonable men with a reasonable sense of what America is and should continue to be moving forward are nonexistent?

                                I think they are very much alive and well. Whether or not that translates into action designed to slow or reverse some of the stupid shit that is going on right now remains to be seen.

                                I'm not a huge fan of Joe Biden nor do I embrace what have become the core principals of the Ds but I thought the Economist piece (pay walled) that I provided a very brief quote from was decent. He's more likely to take a Centrist viewpoint and a Centrist agenda if he's elected. He won't embrace the AOC/Bernie Sanders crap that, for a while there, I thought would become the face of the D party.

                                While that quote does not allow for the full extent of the thinking of a British journalist who wrote it, it shows that a vote for Biden has great potential to kind-of bend the flow of the nonsense river that is rushing America into a bad place.
                                Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; July 4, 2020, 01:31 PM.
                                There is such a thing as redemption. Jim Harbaugh is redeemed at the expense of a fading Ryan Day and OSU. M wins back to back games v. OSU first time since 1999-2000​ - John Cooper was fired in 2000!!!

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