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  • Only 26% of eligible voters voted in the S. FL region where primaries were held last week. For every mail-in ballot that was submitted, 1 wasn't - that's actually a 50% rate and demonstrates a shift away from in-person voting to mail-in. No mention of absentee ballot rates. The predicted rate for the general is 75% up from the mid 50s for the 2106 general.

    R, Laura Loomer who will run against D, Louis Frankel in Palm Beach county's general is getting a lot of press including reports that Roger Stone spoke at her election win party. Bird's of a feather. Reportedly, Loomer has little chance of unseating Frankel in a heavy D lean that persists in Palm Beach Co.
    There is such a thing as redemption. Maybe we're seeing one. We just saw it!!!. M 42, OSU 27. 11/27/21.

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    • S. FL's tri-county region has made notable progress in favorably lowering tracked COVID metrics but arguments persist about what to do with those numbers. I did see a sensible analogy attributed to a public health official involved in advising on COVID matters: "It's (imposing or easing mitigation measures) kind of like prunes. "Is 3 enough or is 6 too many?

      I'd like to think officials involved in decision making are starting to examine important risk/cost/benefit calculations in deciding to open, not open, add additional restrictions. It's still hit-or-miss in the three counties all with different values in the followed metrics. While all of them are trending downward, it's by degree with Miami-Dade, not unexpectedly, having the highest values of the ones that are down-trending across all three counties. Besides, the damage from over-reactions - a sledge instead of a scalpel - has already set S. FL's economy back to where it was in 2011. Economists are saying it will be 2024 before S. FL's economy - a big part of it in the travel and leisure sectors - recovers to pre-covid levels.

      Politics continues to play a major role in what gets eased and what doesn't. Desantis said in a news conference on Thursday that he thinks that S. FL can move to Phase II, something withheld as other counties in FL moved to that phase. Palm Beach Co. is right around a 5% + rate and their mayor has been a re-opening advocate from day one. Broward is 2nd lowest at around 7% and Miami-Dade at around 9%. FL's goal is < 10%. WHO's and CDC's goal is < 5%. Officials argue about which goals to use and what to do with them. Broward's mayor is between Palm Beach's and Miami Dade's - who is definatley anti-opening anything. Teacher's unions (not the majority of teachers!) resist in-person instruction while S' FL's many college campuses re-open with reduced dormitory capacity and hybrid learning and seem to do fine managing the few infections that are reported. So many seemingly contradictory examples of re-opening plans and results from them.

      Of course, all of this, when you get down to 10ths of percentages relies on highly accurate data that supports the metrics. Spoiler. It's not. I look at it every day and a week doesn't go by without someone saying, "whoops we added too many or forgot some" and a metric shoots up or down as an outlier - if it's big enough, and some errors have been, it affects the more reliable trends over a 7d period.
      Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; August 21, 2020, 07:12 AM.
      There is such a thing as redemption. Maybe we're seeing one. We just saw it!!!. M 42, OSU 27. 11/27/21.

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      • Loomer is running in the wrong district.

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        • I didn't watch the Biden speech last night, but I gather from the morning news reports that it turned out as expected for each side. The socialist democrats are gushing with orgasmic delight over the speech, and repubs are bashing it. So, in other words, I missed nothing.

          If, as expected, Joe wins in November, I hope he's able to serve a full term. As long as he's able, we won't have a total cave in to the socialist fruitcakes who will surround him. Joe's a firm liberal, but he's also a career politician who knows how to twist arms behind the scenes and pretty much get what he wants.

          But I think its clear that Joe isn't going to be able to serve a full term, and that's exactly what Dems want. The democratic leadership didn't get the candidate they wanted in the primaries, but they've pulled an excellent bait-and-switch by adding Harris to the ticket. She's the real presidential candidate here, not Joe.

          And for Trump, he will have nobody to blame for his loss except the guy in the mirror. He's running against the weakest democratic candidate since Mike Dukakis, and he's going to get steamrolled. All he had to do to prevent it was to surround himself with savvy political people and actually listen to them. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did that, and did it well for a total of 16 years of our history. Neither of them gave a squat about the average American, but they got them to vote for them.

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          • Yeah, if elected, Biden will be older at inauguration than Reagan was leaving office after his second term.

            If he serves one full term, he will be in his 80’s when he leaves.
            "The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham Lincoln

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            • Despite Republicans' best efforts (actually no, it was half-assed in that famous Kushner style), Kanye West will not appear on the ballot in Ohio or Wisconsin.

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              • Originally posted by lineygoblue View Post

                And for Trump, he will have nobody to blame for his loss except the guy in the mirror. He's running against the weakest democratic candidate since Mike Dukakis, and he's going to get steamrolled. All he had to do to prevent it was to surround himself with savvy political people and actually listen to them. Bill Clinton and Barack Obama did that, and did it well for a total of 16 years of our history. Neither of them gave a squat about the average American, but they got them to vote for them.
                TBF,

                He was surrounded with at least decently chosen personnel at early stages of his admin. This doesn't include the welfare positions for his family or the other blue blood picks.

                Problem is they all left. That power vacuum created an opportunity for Washington skunks.

                McMaster, Mattis, Kelly -- all men who decidedly met their threshold to leave. Those taking their place obviously hold a much different standard.

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                • Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
                  Despite Republicans' best efforts (actually no, it was half-assed in that famous Kushner style), Kanye West will not appear on the ballot in Ohio or Wisconsin.
                  Wait -- Repubs were trying to get him on the ballot? That doesn't make sense.

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                  • Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
                    Despite Republicans' best efforts (actually no, it was half-assed in that famous Kushner style), Kanye West will not appear on the ballot in Ohio or Wisconsin.
                    Kanye isn't going to have enough votes to make a difference, anywhere that he actually makes the ballot. He's a joke candidate, and he will be treated as such on election day.

                    The real threat to Joe is Bernie Sanders. If Joe starts to show weakness, and the polls reflect the possibility of Trump overtaking him, then I could see Bernie mounting a 3rd party candidacy to try and edge out Joe. Problem is, if Bernie does that, he will do the same to Joe that H. Ross Perot did to GHW Bush. It will cost Joe the election. GHW Bush deserved to be re-elected more than any Republican candidate since then, but was denied by the silly candidacy of Perot, who knew he didn't stand a snowball's chance in Death Valley.

                    When Kamala takes over, that's when the real 'fun' begins.



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                    • Originally posted by Hannibal View Post

                      Wait -- Repubs were trying to get him on the ballot? That doesn't make sense.
                      They were hoping he would take black votes away from Biden in close states.

                      ********************

                      Still, GOP-aligned groups keep helping West's presidential bid. One is Mark Jacoby, an executive at political firm Let the Voters Decide, which collected signatures in Ohio and other states.

                      Jacoby was convicted of misdemeanor voter-registration fraud in 2009 in California. Democrats there accused Jacoby of switching voters’ affiliations to Republican without their permission.

                      West's Ohio petition was filed by Matthew Aumann, an associate with Isaac Wiles. The law firm has worked for both Ohio House and Senate Republican campaign arms. Also at that firm: Don Brey, a prominent GOP election attorney.


                      https://www.cincinnati.com/story/new...nt/3298475001/

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                      • Originally posted by lineygoblue View Post

                        Kanye isn't going to have enough votes to make a difference, anywhere that he actually makes the ballot. He's a joke candidate, and he will be treated as such on election day.

                        The real threat to Joe is Bernie Sanders. If Joe starts to show weakness, and the polls reflect the possibility of Trump overtaking him, then I could see Bernie mounting a 3rd party candidacy to try and edge out Joe. Problem is, if Bernie does that, he will do the same to Joe that H. Ross Perot did to GHW Bush. It will cost Joe the election. GHW Bush deserved to be re-elected more than any Republican candidate since then, but was denied by the silly candidacy of Perot, who knew he didn't stand a snowball's chance in Death Valley.

                        When Kamala takes over, that's when the real 'fun' begins.


                        LOL, you lead a rich fantasy life

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                        • Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post

                          LOL, you lead a rich fantasy life
                          So you're convinced that Bernie has given up all hope of being President?

                          I admit its a stretch, but politics can take a lot of crazy turns.

                          FWIW, I don't expect Joe to dive too much in the polls unless he foolishly agrees to multiple debates with Trump, and performs terribly. I mean, he'd have to fall completely flat on his face to lose to Trump now.

                          I expect that the Dems learned their lesson with the Hillary loss. They realize that Hillary could have probably won by keeping her yap shut more often, and campaigning from her living room. With COVID still out there, Joe will be completely justified by staying home, and staying as quiet as possible. Meanwhile, Trump will be hammering away on Twitter, and making campaign appearances that will appeal to his base, but not win over swing votes. The swing voters will prefer the quiet and secluded Biden.

                          These ought to be giddy days for you, Strangelove, and even more so when Kamala takes over.

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                          • True 4-D chess move to wait until late September to announce a 3rd Party run for President. Especially considering the filing deadline has already passed in all but a dozen states and the last ones are on Sept 4

                            Which is another stupid element of the Kanye West "Sabotage Joe" plan: they didn't come up with it until after several important states (Texas, Michigan, Florida) were way past the deadlines.

                            https://ballotpedia.org/Deadline_to_run_for_president

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                            • Yeah, there's a greater chance the B10 plays football in 2020.

                              However, the "Dress Biden Up as Moderate" schtick is nice and all, but that much we know is a canard.

                              But, to his credit, he's basically just running as "Not PDJT" instead of giving much detail on policy. And that should be more than enough.
                              Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                              Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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                              • The Michigan Court of Appeals approved Gretch Whitmer's total control of Michigan today in a 2-1 decision.

                                https://www.detroitnews.com/story/ne...ls/3402687001/

                                Whitmer can continue to run Michigan without any input from the Legislature. The court ruled that as long as she feels an emergency exists, that she can continue to declare a state of emergency for as long as she wishes. A declared state of emergency gives the Governor full control of all state functions, and allows the Governor to issue executive orders which are not subject to Legislature approval.

                                Whitmer took full control of Michigan in March due to the COVID outbreak, and has shown no signs of returning the state to the democratic process.

                                State Senate and House representatives will now appeal the case to the Michigan Supreme Court.
                                Last edited by lineygoblue; August 21, 2020, 12:52 PM.

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