Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Jeff Buchanan]

It will be close but Biden is going to win FL. FL is also one of those states among most, in fact, that count absentee and early votes before election day. Results, of course, aren't released until after polls close but, we'll know who wins FL before 11pm on November 3rd. Caveats apply: Results could get challenged; it could be close enough not to declare a projected winner.

I also don't get Hanni's claim that R's lead D's in early voting ballots. That's not true. D's are ahead according to local news down here but the reports also indicate the gap between R and D ballots submission is narrowing.

[Dr. Strangelove]

It will be close but Biden is going to win FL. FL is also one of those states among most, in fact, that count absentee and early votes before election day. Results, of course, aren't released until after polls close but, we'll know who wins FL before 11pm on November 3rd. Caveats apply: Results could get challenged; it could be close enough not to declare a projected winner.

I also don't get Hanni's claim that R's lead D's in early voting ballots. That's not true. D's are ahead according to local news down here but the reports also indicate the gap between R and D ballots submission is narrowing.

Trump could be leading in Florida if you assume Independents are breaking his way. But I tend to not think they are not.

So much of Sumter has voted early that once the polls close and their initial vote count gets posted (hopefully very quickly) if Trump is getting near 70% of the vote there, then things look on track for him to win the state. If he's closer to 60% or even below, that's a very bad sign for him.

[Dr. Strangelove]

BTW, I believe Georgia and North Carolina are the same as Florida. The results of the early vote will be released very quickly once polls close. It's northern battleground states where counting mail-in ballots looks like it'll drag on.

[Jeff Buchanan]

But I tend to think they (independents) are not (trending to Trump).

I think you are right. The poll watching down here is pretty diverse. None of them that I've seen are thinking that independents are trending toward trump. The opposite is true.

[Hannibal]

It will be close but Biden is going to win FL. FL is also one of those states among most, in fact, that count absentee and early votes before election day. Results, of course, aren't released until after polls close but, we'll know who wins FL before 11pm on November 3rd. Caveats apply: Results could get challenged; it could be close enough not to declare a projected winner.

I also don't get Hanni's claim that R's lead D's in early voting ballots. That's not true. D's are ahead according to local news down here but the reports also indicate the gap between R and D ballots submission is narrowing.

Rs are narrowly behind on early voting in FL. Some polls suggest that 2/3 to 3/4 of Democrats around the country have already voted whereas that number is less than half for the Rs because of differences in attitudes towards Covid-19. The theory at work is that election day turnout will hugely favor Republicans, so Dems need a big lead headed into election day. They don't have that in FL now.

They do have a lead in AZ now, whereas Rs actually led in early voting in 2016 and 2018, so that suggests a big D victory there.

Based on the site above's modeling in MI, the Ds are also doing very well there too and they have a slightly bigger lead headed into election day than they did four years ago. Once again, modeling somewhat questionable.

[Jeff Buchanan]

BTW, I believe Georgia and North Carolina are the same as Florida. The results of the early vote will be released very quickly once polls close. It's northern battleground states where counting mail-in ballots looks like it'll drag on.

Yep .......

screenshot-www.nytimes.com-2020.11.02-10_10_45.png

[Hannibal]

FYI the site that I posted a link to is a Democrat-run site, but it's being used by Trumpers/Republican pundits to predict a Trump victory now.

YMMV.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I think it's tough to model anything off of early voting, especially this year. The reason I bring up Sumter County and make assumptions based off that is because it's one of the most conservative counties in Florida, full of seniors, and we know for a fact that 80% of the maximum possible vote is already in. 80% turnout is already extremely high and 90% is virtually unheard of.

Some people are getting ahead of themselves regarding the huge numbers in Texas but it's just as possible that Republican regions are responsible for the heavy turnout (although the turnout in Houston and Austin has been massive). We know Trump's core is extremely passionate about him. Biden's support is wider but shallower.

The one other guy I listen to when it comes to the early vote is Jon Ralston re: Nevada. He was pretty spot-on in 2016 and again in the 2018 Governor and Senate races. But that's a simpler state to understand because soooo much of the population is concentrated in just two counties. This year he's saying Trump would need to win Independents by double digits to take Nevada based on the early vote.

[Hannibal]

Yeah it is tough to predict. My map could be way off -- not that it matters if Trump gets 188 EVs or 250 EVs. I don't think that the swing states will be blowouts though.

[iam416]

In a nice bit of hilarity, Amnesty International declares that the US Police are doing a bad job of protecting "peaceful" anti-police protestors. LOL.

https://www.amnestyusa.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/10/Losing-the-Peace-Report.pdf

[THE_WIZARD_]

You just can't make this shit up...

[Hannibal]

Republican optimism is more or less based on these numbers:

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Tough to say whether this will come to fruition or not. Is Trump really going to triple his vote on election day? Turnout would have to be insane for that to happen.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Projected 160 million voters. Record by far. Plus 40 million dead democrat votes...

[Ghengis Jon]

Love the totals - Biden 93% / Trump 101%.

7% Dems not voting and 1% of Rep votes fraudulent?

[Dr. Strangelove]

Love the totals - Biden 93% / Trump 101%.

7% Dems not voting and 1% of Rep votes fraudulent?

Reading it wrong. Of people who have already voted, 66% voted Biden, 32% for Trump. 2% Other