Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Most covid deaths as a function of population. I haven't looked at this in months but given the Delta surge and the new 2020 census numbers I was curious to check it out again. For the first time since I've kept track, New York is out of the Top 2

1. New Jersey (2.877 deaths per 1000)
2. Mississippi (2.673)
3. New York (2.650)
4. Arizona (2.587)
5. Massachusetts (2.584)
6. Louisiana (2.532)
7. Rhode Island (2.504)
8. Alabama (2.363)
9. South Dakota (2.319)
10. Connecticut (2.304)

[Jeff Buchanan]

There are several important points here:

CFR is burdened with statistical errors in calculation and data points that describe the numerator and denominator in the calculation.

The CFR here is between 0.23 and 0.25 - see above.

Best estimates of what actual CFR will be range from 0.33 to 0.05. The broad consensus is that the actual CFR will turn out to be less than 2%.

FL does not make the top 10 on this list but based on the current FL bashing by the press, you'd not be able to conclude that Ron Desantis did a good job protecting the public health of Floridians. He did and that will come out in the end of all this.

I don't have a lot to add about Afghanistan here. I agree with Mike. OTH, I'm tired of the self loathing. If Americans really want to get past policing the entire planet on our dime, we have to get past this...... after we get American's and Afghanies who served our interests out of that already designated shit hole about to become a 15th century hell-hole safely. If we want America's FP to be characterized by more restraint and less primacy, we have to get past this.

There is some risk in a more restrained American Foreign Policy and that is granting deference to China and Putin's bull-shit on the global stage. America has the tools at it's disposal to off-set what might appear to be advantages to our historic and emerging adversaries. Those are on the economic, financial and technological fronts. Those need to be nurtured if a more restrained American FP is to become a viable future course.

[iam416]

I didn't see this yesterday, but Reuters has Chairman Big Rig under water at 46-49. That would be the first poll (other than Rasmussen) to have Chairman Big Rig in the negatives. And we're only in August. I didn't think Afghanistan would leave much of a mark -- and I still don't think it will -- but if your whole schtick is "competence" and the "grown ups are back in charge" then public confidence might take a hit when you totally fuck something up.

Have another ice cream cone, Chairman Big Rig!

[iam416]

This is absolutely stunning....Charles Cooke very neatly makes the most obviously valid points....but, basically, if you want out of Afghanistan, you're being asked to pay $2000 or more for the flight. https://www.nationalreview.com/corne...e-down-system/

Eh, it's worth quoting because it's so damn true:

but we really are reaching the point at which the federal government’s enthusiasm for doing the things it’s not supposed to be doing is crowding out its ability to manage the things that it was instituted to do in the first place

[Kapture1]

I didn't see this yesterday, but Reuters has Chairman Big Rig under water at 46-49. That would be the first poll (other than Rasmussen) to have Chairman Big Rig in the negatives. And we're only in August. I didn't think Afghanistan would leave much of a mark -- and I still don't think it will -- but if your whole schtick is "competence" and the "grown ups are back in charge" then public confidence might take a hit when you totally fuck something up.

Have another ice cream cone, Chairman Big Rig!

Just wait until we are trading pallets of cash for stranded Americans.

Anyone paying attention to Joe's record knows he is awful, just God awful terrible at foreign policy. The same guy that opposed the raid to kill OBL. This "fuck up" is less of a fuck up than it is his calling card. This has Joe Biden written all over it.

[Mike]

I didn't see this yesterday, but Reuters has Chairman Big Rig under water at 46-49. That would be the first poll (other than Rasmussen) to have Chairman Big Rig in the negatives. And we're only in August. I didn't think Afghanistan would leave much of a mark -- and I still don't think it will -- but if your whole schtick is "competence" and the "grown ups are back in charge" then public confidence might take a hit when you totally fuck something up.

Have another ice cream cone, Chairman Big Rig!

I saw a news report a couple nights ago that had him under 50% and they specifically stated that the poll was conducted prior to the fall of Afghanistan. That number should be in free fall now. Not that it matters any.

[Dr. Strangelove]

If Biden actually runs for reelection his odds of winning are under 50% unless he's facing Trump again. And you know my thoughts on Trump. I think he's more likely to be the 2024 nominee than this board's consensus view.

[Dr. Strangelove]

And Mike is right, Biden's numbers have been slowly eroding since early summer when Delta variant coverage really began in earnest.

EDIT: In another piece Amy Walter points out that for the first time since January, a majority of Americans think the worst of the pandemic is now ahead of us, not behind us (That's almost certainly not true, but it reflects the gloom and pessimism of the general public)

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...s/cruel-summer

[iam416]

Biden vs Trump, THIS TIME IT'S FOR REAL!!!! would be an utter catastrophic failure. I won't let myself believe that it will happen. I believe in America. America's been good to me.

I think it's more likely than not that Biden doesn't run in 2024. Honestly, "he's lost his fastball" is the nicest way to say it. By 2024 he may only be putting up low 50s on the JUGGS gun.

[Hannibal]

If Biden actually runs for reelection his odds of winning are under 50% unless he's facing Trump again. And you know my thoughts on Trump. I think he's more likely to be the 2024 nominee than this board's consensus view.

If Trump runs against DeSantis, DeSantis will win. Trump does have a significant and strong following, but he won the Republican nomination in 2016 in no small part because there was a role that needed to be filled. Desantis fills that role much better and with for fewer warts.

[iam416]

And Mike is right, Biden's numbers have been slowly eroding since early summer when Delta variant coverage really began in earnest.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...s/cruel-summer

This is probably the least fair criticism of Chairman Big Rig. I don't look at his handling of Covid and see any fuck ups. Bad luck, maybe. I also don't see anything outstanding. I mean, I think anyone was going to mobilized vaccination efforts and I think no one was going to do any sort of lockdown.

I think the issues that will really stick to him are, obviously, anything relating to the economy, immigration and crime. For the economy, he should be doing better than he is -- and if inflation is truly transitory then he will do better. Inflation isn't something you can speak into or out of existence. Voters either feel it or they don't. As for immigration, he owns that. There's no really getting around it. I think it'll be a net negative for him. And for crime, he suffers, I think, from a politics is national sort of thing. He can talk all he wants about how great the police are, but the reality is there's a portion of his party that absolutely want to, ummm, reduce the amount of money spent on police. Heh.

[iam416]

If Trump runs against DeSantis, DeSantis will win. Trump does have a significant and strong following, but he won the Republican nomination in 2016 in no small part because there was a role that needed to be filled. Desantis fills that role much better and with for fewer warts.

DJT will win any crowded field primary. It'd almost have to be 2 or 3 for DeSantis to win. DJT has a core 30% (at least) that ain't ever changing horses. And that would win in a crowded primary -- as it did in 2016.

[iam416]

Also, 2022 is a lifetime away -- let alone 2024.

[Hannibal]

If Trump and DeSantis both run, it won't be crowded. At least it won't be crowded by the time people are voting.