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Well, I survived the first week at 6-6. That's about what I was hoping for as I was looking at 5 or 6 games that were complete guesses. The long slog through the nonconference slate is still tough, but at least I have SOMETHING to go on.
Ohio (+3) at Purdue. No, M fans and hopeless Hoke defenders, Ohio State is not a 3 point underdog to Purdue. These are the mighty Bobcats and they have shown a propensity to give mediocre P5 teams trouble. Not that Purdue is mediocre. Despite the score, Louisville sort of dominated that game as was expected. We didn’t learn anything from Ohio other than Hampton is awful. Purdue has been erratic against MAC teams recently, losing enough to make the line legitimate. This one has me torn, but I’m going to back the Boilers to win by a touchdown. Now, if they get two OU fumbles inside the 3, then it’s an easy cover. But, think this is a dogfight between evenly-matched teams. Which is to say the Boilers are on the upswing!
Cincinnati (+34’) at M. The line opened at 27’ and has been shooting up. There really isn’t much to this one. M is way better and HARBAUGH!!!! plays a style that will bring their superiority to bear in a most gruesome fashion. Michigan to cover. EASY.
Iowa (-3) at Iowa State. I haven’t got this game right in long time. I was fairly impressed by Iowa’s defense last week. The offense is still all Ferentz’d up, but sometimes you only need 14 to win a game and even beat a top 3 team. I’ll go with Iowa’s defense being pretty respectable and hope for something like 17-13 or better. Hawkeyes.
Florida Atlantic (+31’) at Wisconsin. Lane-O still has some work to do. The brave Owls hung with Navy for awhile before eventually succumbing to a 23 point loss. Wisky stood up Utah State for a wretched half before finally annihilating them by 49. Again, one of my early season principles is that Wisconsin bashes bad teams. It’s not always right, but it’s enough for me to pick the Badgers this week.
Northwestern (-3) at Duke. I missed this game last year banking on a shitball nFw team being unable to cover. Fool me once. The Mildcats looked horrific last week. Duke walloped some high school team. The game is in Durham in front of 8,000ish rabid English majors. nFw has beaten Duke two on the trot and won in Durham two years ago by 9. I’ll take the Mildcats to win and do enough to get past the number.
Indiana (-3) at Virginia. Jeez, it’s like the B10 and ACC did a half-assed B10-ACC Challenge of Suck. I’m getting a little antsy playing chalk. I think IU is probably clearly better, but this feels like a letdown game. I doubt Virginia will go cover zero with no safety help on Cobbs for an entire half, but then again, IU probably has a credible chance to run the ball. This game is crucial to IU’s bowl hopes. I’m going to say Hoosiers gonna Hoosier and back the Wahoos to win outright and cover.
Western Michigan (+7’) at Michigan State. I think value in early season betting can best be found in teams that underperformed the previous year. I still think Sparty is going to be much closer to my expectations (8 wins) than last year (3). I think they’re probably considerably better at every spot. Western, meanwhile, is getting run for its strong showing in LA. The line opened at 4’ and has moved to a TD and the hook. Vegas seems to think it’s a close game while the public thinks otherwise. I’m no sharp, so I’m going with the square play – Sparty to win by 2 scores and cover.
Eastern Michigan (+5’) at Rutgers. New Jersey State finally found a Washtenaw County team they can score on. I’m wasting no fucking time on this. Eastern, while way better than normal Eastern, isn’t even a credible threat to win the MAC West. If Rutgers can’t win this game by at least 7 then Ash needs to be fired. Rutgers.
Pittsburgh (+21) at Penn State. Last season Pitt ran all over Penn State to pull out a narrow win. Of course, Penn State was starting janitors at LB. Once that was rectified their defense magically turned better. However, I still think Pitt will be able to grind. They won’t match last year’s success, but will they do enough to limit possessions and score 20? I think so. I’m seeing something like 38-20, so I’ll back Pitt to cover the 3 TDs on the road.
Nebraska (+13’) at Oregon. Boy, last week wasn’t encouraging for the Corn People. There were shades of 62-36 in there or, even worse, 76-39. You get the feeling that UNL will have to score 49 to win. However, I’m only concerned about covering. I like Lee and Three Bryant looks like he could be a player. Oregon has never been known for its defense, so I think the Genius of Riley will get them enough points to cover the number in Eugene. I actually think this is a fairly close game with UNL having a credible chance to win because I’m ignoring all available evidence.
Oklahoma (+7’) at Ohio State. Last season JTB played his best game of the year in Norman. As the season wore on the outlier nature of that performance became more stark. I think JTB will play like JTB which should be good enough for something in the 30s. The Sooners should be able to score. Their OL is, perhaps, the best OL OSU will face all year. I think they can neutralize OSU’s very good DL. Mark Andrews is going to be a real problem for any team including OSU. And OSU will probably be back in Cover Zero meaning their CBs will be tested. I think this is a close game that is down to final couple possessions and will take OU to stay within a score with very credible chance of winning outright.
Western Kentucky (-7’) at Illinois. Last year Illinois played the non-P5 darling at home and were motorboated by, well, the row the boat squad. WKU, however, has had a hard time beating mediocre P5 teams, losing to Vandy last season and Indiana the year before (11-3 and 12-2 seasons respectively). I have no problem believing Illinois is hot fucking shit. I mean, they were fortunate to beat Ball State. But, I have a hard time getting behind the Toppers to win by 2 scores. So, fuck it, I’m going to swallow my gun and back Lovie to somehow keep this respectable. I hate myself already – even more.
Minnesota (+2’) at Oregon State. Egads – and underdog in CORVALIS. There’s just no way I’ll ever pick take the Beav GIVING points against a P5 team not from New Jersey or Kansas, so I’ll Row the fucking Boat with PJ. Goofers to win outight in a game that, if you’re lucky, you’ll miss passed out drunk in the first quarter.
Others: Maryland plays Towson. Good chance for Kasim Hill to get some reps.
Ohio (+3) at Purdue. No, M fans and hopeless Hoke defenders, Ohio State is not a 3 point underdog to Purdue. These are the mighty Bobcats and they have shown a propensity to give mediocre P5 teams trouble. Not that Purdue is mediocre. Despite the score, Louisville sort of dominated that game as was expected. We didn’t learn anything from Ohio other than Hampton is awful. Purdue has been erratic against MAC teams recently, losing enough to make the line legitimate. This one has me torn, but I’m going to back the Boilers to win by a touchdown. Now, if they get two OU fumbles inside the 3, then it’s an easy cover. But, think this is a dogfight between evenly-matched teams. Which is to say the Boilers are on the upswing!
Cincinnati (+34’) at M. The line opened at 27’ and has been shooting up. There really isn’t much to this one. M is way better and HARBAUGH!!!! plays a style that will bring their superiority to bear in a most gruesome fashion. Michigan to cover. EASY.
Iowa (-3) at Iowa State. I haven’t got this game right in long time. I was fairly impressed by Iowa’s defense last week. The offense is still all Ferentz’d up, but sometimes you only need 14 to win a game and even beat a top 3 team. I’ll go with Iowa’s defense being pretty respectable and hope for something like 17-13 or better. Hawkeyes.
Florida Atlantic (+31’) at Wisconsin. Lane-O still has some work to do. The brave Owls hung with Navy for awhile before eventually succumbing to a 23 point loss. Wisky stood up Utah State for a wretched half before finally annihilating them by 49. Again, one of my early season principles is that Wisconsin bashes bad teams. It’s not always right, but it’s enough for me to pick the Badgers this week.
Northwestern (-3) at Duke. I missed this game last year banking on a shitball nFw team being unable to cover. Fool me once. The Mildcats looked horrific last week. Duke walloped some high school team. The game is in Durham in front of 8,000ish rabid English majors. nFw has beaten Duke two on the trot and won in Durham two years ago by 9. I’ll take the Mildcats to win and do enough to get past the number.
Indiana (-3) at Virginia. Jeez, it’s like the B10 and ACC did a half-assed B10-ACC Challenge of Suck. I’m getting a little antsy playing chalk. I think IU is probably clearly better, but this feels like a letdown game. I doubt Virginia will go cover zero with no safety help on Cobbs for an entire half, but then again, IU probably has a credible chance to run the ball. This game is crucial to IU’s bowl hopes. I’m going to say Hoosiers gonna Hoosier and back the Wahoos to win outright and cover.
Western Michigan (+7’) at Michigan State. I think value in early season betting can best be found in teams that underperformed the previous year. I still think Sparty is going to be much closer to my expectations (8 wins) than last year (3). I think they’re probably considerably better at every spot. Western, meanwhile, is getting run for its strong showing in LA. The line opened at 4’ and has moved to a TD and the hook. Vegas seems to think it’s a close game while the public thinks otherwise. I’m no sharp, so I’m going with the square play – Sparty to win by 2 scores and cover.
Eastern Michigan (+5’) at Rutgers. New Jersey State finally found a Washtenaw County team they can score on. I’m wasting no fucking time on this. Eastern, while way better than normal Eastern, isn’t even a credible threat to win the MAC West. If Rutgers can’t win this game by at least 7 then Ash needs to be fired. Rutgers.
Pittsburgh (+21) at Penn State. Last season Pitt ran all over Penn State to pull out a narrow win. Of course, Penn State was starting janitors at LB. Once that was rectified their defense magically turned better. However, I still think Pitt will be able to grind. They won’t match last year’s success, but will they do enough to limit possessions and score 20? I think so. I’m seeing something like 38-20, so I’ll back Pitt to cover the 3 TDs on the road.
Nebraska (+13’) at Oregon. Boy, last week wasn’t encouraging for the Corn People. There were shades of 62-36 in there or, even worse, 76-39. You get the feeling that UNL will have to score 49 to win. However, I’m only concerned about covering. I like Lee and Three Bryant looks like he could be a player. Oregon has never been known for its defense, so I think the Genius of Riley will get them enough points to cover the number in Eugene. I actually think this is a fairly close game with UNL having a credible chance to win because I’m ignoring all available evidence.
Oklahoma (+7’) at Ohio State. Last season JTB played his best game of the year in Norman. As the season wore on the outlier nature of that performance became more stark. I think JTB will play like JTB which should be good enough for something in the 30s. The Sooners should be able to score. Their OL is, perhaps, the best OL OSU will face all year. I think they can neutralize OSU’s very good DL. Mark Andrews is going to be a real problem for any team including OSU. And OSU will probably be back in Cover Zero meaning their CBs will be tested. I think this is a close game that is down to final couple possessions and will take OU to stay within a score with very credible chance of winning outright.
Western Kentucky (-7’) at Illinois. Last year Illinois played the non-P5 darling at home and were motorboated by, well, the row the boat squad. WKU, however, has had a hard time beating mediocre P5 teams, losing to Vandy last season and Indiana the year before (11-3 and 12-2 seasons respectively). I have no problem believing Illinois is hot fucking shit. I mean, they were fortunate to beat Ball State. But, I have a hard time getting behind the Toppers to win by 2 scores. So, fuck it, I’m going to swallow my gun and back Lovie to somehow keep this respectable. I hate myself already – even more.
Minnesota (+2’) at Oregon State. Egads – and underdog in CORVALIS. There’s just no way I’ll ever pick take the Beav GIVING points against a P5 team not from New Jersey or Kansas, so I’ll Row the fucking Boat with PJ. Goofers to win outight in a game that, if you’re lucky, you’ll miss passed out drunk in the first quarter.
Others: Maryland plays Towson. Good chance for Kasim Hill to get some reps.
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