Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[WM Wolverine]

Benefits of a really weak P5 schedule far, far outweigh the risks.

[Dr. Strangelove]

I'm fairly sure they scheduled Rutgers when their program was struggling to be relevant. In fairness to them, they've added games against Michigan, Auburn, and OSU recently.

[Jeff Buchanan]

USA Today's Pre-season top 25 puts M at #4 behind FSU, Alabama and osu. #5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10 are listed in the video on the linked page. PSU at #8.

The writer notes lots of youth and inexperience but ...... HARBAUGH!

I'm not a big believer in the overall impact of hard to quantify intangibles as solid predictors.

To me, it's talent #1 followed by building on week to week performance close behind that as predictors of a season's success. Two teams stand out as examples of the importance of talent that extends to the two deep: Alabama and osu. There is absolutely no doubt as to why Saban has excelled at Alabama and why osu is embarking on a similar period of CFB dominance. These guys can recruit..... and the on-field success built on that along with placing that talent in the NFL feeds recruiting.

Michigan has the potential to replicate both Alabama's and osu's success in both recruiting (netting talent) and sustainable winning. Not there yet.

I'd say the only two teams that are shoe-ins for the CFB playoffs are Alabama and osu and this is based on the two criteria I named above as predictors. The rest of them are shots in the dark, including M. The success of the rest of those teams is more likely to be determined by the vagaries of random events on win totals. It's just how it is.

https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/ncaaf/2017/06/19/michigan-wolverines-college-football-early-look/408961001/

[Hannibal]

#4 is way too high. That's higher than we finished in 2016.

[hack]

Surprised at that myself.

[Hannibal]

We could conceivably end up there in 2018 depending on whether Grant Newsome can return at 100%. The schedule does look favorable.

[Hannibal]

Guaranteed wins:
Cincinnati
Purdue
Rutgers
Indiana (Kevin Wilson getting fired and Mike Debord getting hired as the OC bumps this from "Likely" to "Guaranteed")

Likely wins:
Air Force (this game sucks fuck this game)
MSU (I recently swapped this from win to loss because of MSU's attrition and UM's recruiting)
Maryland
Minnesota (bordering on guaranteed)

Tossups:
Wisconsin -- Big talent gap between the two programs but Wisky in Madison is always brutal. Our last double digit victory there was 1990 (Alvarez's first year) Since then we are 3-4 there.

Likely losses:
Florida (baffled by Michigan being universally regarded as the favorite here)
Penn State

Guaranteed losses:
OSU

My prediction: 8-4

[hack]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get as favorable a whistle in the OSU game as they did last fall.

[Hannibal]

I wouldn't be surprised if we get as favorable a whistle in the OSU game as they did last fall.

It'll never happen. And even if it did it wouldn't make a difference this year.

[hack]

The conference knows. That's why it sent the Rules Buffoon to talk to Teddy Greenstein, in that deep-dive investigation in which Greenstein didn't internview anyone else. They don't trot out that person very often at all.

[Hannibal]

Whatever systemic problem there was will likely be corrected just in time for nobody to ever get completely screwed by it again.

[Jeff Buchanan]

On "guaranteed loss" at osu ........

I've been wading my way through the 132pg preview of team 138 (Hail) which includes a run down of M's opponents. Clearly, 2017 is a tough schedule (Per CBS Sports, M ranks #14 in degree of difficulty, osu 17th, PSU 43rd, Wisky, 65th). Two things have stood out so far in reading Hail:

(1): There is a shit ton of talent on this team and on offense, some depth. The D lacks depth but the authors put together your typical mgoblog smiley face and showed how things should pan out despite the depth issue. It's convincing as mgo offers that the nearly NFL ready front 4/5 does a good job of protecting the lack of experience in the back 7/6. We'll see.

(2): Each of the top teams M faces has roster weaknesses. In the case of PSU, despite Bomber McSorley and Heismann candidate RB Barkley, the OL is weak, McSorly is going to miss his prime NFL bound receiver in Goodwin and Franlin will be Frankliin at some point in the game where M comes to town. Wisky is just a meh team but still, Camp Randal. I'll run down osu:

Per Hail:

The Buckeyes must replace the Rimington winning center, their best receiver, three fi rst rounders out of the secondary, a great middle linebacker, a Heisman candidate at the all-important H receiver position, his backup, and one of the best punters in college football history.

The game is also in AA. Maybe too early to speculate but Frey is going to improve M's run game. It was improved over previous versions but, nonetheless anemic last season and put a lot of pressure on Speight in last year's game in c-bus.

I still think, besides how efficiently he is used in ufm's varied spread to run O, that Barrett, as osu's QB, is not your guaranteed difference maker in The Game. Again from Hail:

The four-year starter was more efficient than lethal for the meat of his career. His best skill remains the ability to consistently turn a 2-yard hole into a gain of 8, or, you know, turning no yards into 1.

I don't think it's a "guaranteed loss" looking at it this early in the season. Despite some of Speight's trunovers last year in C-bus, this game was never fully decided until, you know, "Barrett turned no yards in 1," taking any wind out of M's sails they might have had. I don't think talent would disagree with this.

[Hannibal]

The Buckeyes still didn't lose enough for me to rank them lower than #2. I would put them at #1 actually. Skillplayer playmakers like Samuel are typically not that hard to replace. You can frequently plug in freshmen at a slot receiver/RB spot if he is a great athlete. Especially when you recruit like OSU. Their DL and OL will be obnoxious again after what was a little bit of an off year for the OL. And they just hired as their OC a guy who turned Indiana into an offensive power and whose teams regularly put up 60 points when he was at Oklahoma.

[iam416]

The Buckeyes must replace the Rimington winning center, their best receiver, three fi rst rounders out of the secondary, a great middle linebacker, a Heisman candidate at the all-important H receiver position, his backup, and one of the best punters in college football history.

I wonder if Mgo puts on the same happy face for the Buckeyes they do with M? I mean, M loses nearly EVERYONE. If Mgo is putting on a happy face about a great DL protecting a weak back 7, then, I got news for you...OSU has a great DL. GREAT. Plus, you know, OSU just sort of replaced an entire team last season and somehow managed to be ok.

OSU may lose their top WR, but Brown as largely meh. Compared to, say, Chesson and Darboah and Butt? OSU's biggest loss on offense is Samuel. That's a real and significant loss.

But, let's be clear....M loses way more. M also probably has less than OSU in reserve to fill in. So, I mean, I guess if you want to shine the turd you can talk about how great M's few returnees are and how easily they can replace folks and then focus on who OSU lost. It's probably the only way.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Fair.

It's going to be interesting to see how ufm and kevin wilson integrate. Two very strong personalities. Should be fun but I could see some friction.