Michigan Football, Team 138, 2017 Season.

[froot loops]

Not to mention his nonsense prediction against MSU.

[paul daugherity]

Yeah, he has been, in my mind, a Harbaugh apologist. He is very reluctant to criticize the coaching or Harbaugh's coaching decisions. I think that the coaching is where fan frustration is really directed. Brian is dismissive of the criticism and questioning, instead going to everyone expected 8-4, things were worse under Hoke, we're young, blah blah blah. His credibility has shot way down in my book. But he's got his synchophants, so he's insulated and fine.

[iam416]

Not to mention his nonsense prediction against MSU.

Yeah, but that was only because MONSOON!

And Penn State won, in large part, because they had all this time to put in super-awesome new plays.

But, part of the reason I enjoy perusing that blog is to read the excuses and rationalizations. A smallish part -- I do enjoy the Opponent Watch (which seems to have gone AWOL) and the UFR analysis. But, man, the excuses. And those are always at critical mass if they lose to your boys, Froot. And it's the writers, not just the general CFB message board poster.

[iam416]

Paul:

He's starting to come around in criticizing limited aspects of the team. However, it almost never has to do with HARBAUGH!!!! First, the defense is off limits. And that's fine and justified. The offense, which one would think is HARBAUGH!!!, is explained as Drevno doing this and Hamilton doing that and finally, FINALLY HARBAUGH takes over and instills core plays. That, BTW, only happens when M is playing total shit teams and the offense looks semi-cogent. And, of course, against Wisconsin they win if Peters doesn't go out.

My biggest complaint with his apologism is his OL criticism. He's now to the point where he says it's just not good -- can't pass block at all (run blocking is very good, though). And whenever he says that, Newsome is mentioned. Invariably. Well, we all knew Newsome wasn't playing this year. Yet, you thought the OL would be fine. You thought M would be favored AT PENN STATE. And AT WISCONSIN. You thought the OL was good enough for 10-2 and, even 11-1 (which he thought was more realistic than 9-3).

Now, it's hot fucking garbage in pass protection and decent at run blocking, and the excuses and rationalizations roll in. I think that taints an otherwise quality blog -- however, I personally enjoy the rationalizations, so, hooray!

From an OSU perspective, we all know that the offense starts and ends with UFM. If it isn't performing well, it's on UFM. If it is, then it's on UFM. OCs are going to come and go. UFM is staying. So, when it turns into a shitshow for the final 3 games of 2016 or the OU game this year, that's on UFM. Period.

[froot loops]

Not criticizing the defense is a blind spot. The stats look good, but it gets exposed against good teams. It a great defense if you have an high powered offense, but against good teams that offense has trouble scoring. Giving up a TD because Brown's defense is always over pursuing can be fatal.

[paul daugherity]

You are right, Brian has started to offer some criticism of Harbaugh. But it is very soft, and there are numerous circumstances offered to excuse Harbaugh. The OL is a perfect example. He continues to point out Newsome's injury and Hoke's lack of recruiting. What about Harbaugh's recruiting or lack thereof? He saw the roster when he arrived, so why not try to get as many OT candidates on board to prevent what we've seen this season? That's never mentioned over there. It would be nice to have some good discussion and analysis. Maybe I'm expecting too much from a fan blog.

[iam416]

Yeah. As I said, ALL of OL criticisms are based on facts known to him when he predicted 10-2. If he had banged that drum at the outset and tamped down enthusiasm, then he'd have credibility out the ass to keep banging the drum. I dunno. It's a fan blog. But I find it silly to shit on fans for being upset b/c the team didn't reach their expectations when you helped set those expectations.

Froot:

I agree with you on defense. But, as a whole, there are way bigger fish to fry.

[paul daugherity]

He also misses the point that had UM had at least an average offense, they had a chance to win against MSU and Wisconsin. Not a guarantee on wins. But the offense was so ineffective in those games, it cost them a chance at winning them. That's a egit criticism that is never mentioned by Brian.

[Jeff Buchanan]

When you're assessing the quality of a CFB team in July and August you've got pretty much nothing to go on other than what little you've observed from a spring practice open to the public informed by analytics from the previous season. You really just don't know so picking a record is pure guess work. Hard to fault anyone guessing on a W/L record at that point in time.

As the season plays out, analytics improve with respect to their predictive value and the eyeball test becomes more reliable. e.g., Nolan Ulizio is a liability at RT. I'm not sure I'd characterize Brian as an apologist for Harbaugh. That's because his UFR's tell the story pretty accurately. They are essentially coaching neutral or as close to it as possible; he draws conclusions about coaching, supportable from play analysis over time. Brian's expectations at the start of the season based on guess work have, it seems to me, been appropriately adjusted downwards and reasons for that given.

I think it's clear that Brian sees an identity to M's offense and assigns that, IMO, correctly to Harbaugh. I also think that when that identity fails to be demonstrated in any particular game precipitating a loss, he first assigns cause to players through his UFRs. In his most recent analysis of the Wisconsin game, especially as it applies to the OL, he was pretty open about where he thought the problems were. He went on to lay out two reasons: (1) Players lacking the smarts to perform or (2) coaches not coaching. IMO, this kind of approach recognizes that, as fans, we can't assign causation with any accuracy.

I don't agree with the notion that one guy, as talent suggests it might be in ufm's case, is wholly responsible for an outcome and therefor blameworthy in the case of a loss. There are too many moving parts in a single game to suggest that and too many coaches and players responsible for the parts moving in the right direction. i.e., assigning causation to one person, in this case the HC, is bound to be inaccurate.

I think it makes for better analysis the way Brian does it and I assume he is basing the opinions he does express about performance, both coaches and players, based on the thought that one guy is probably not solely responsible for a win or a loss.

In that context, I can't characterize him as an apologist for JH.

[hack]

This year is a professional challenge to his growth as a journalist, and it's proving to be quite the challenge. Time to stop whining about the refs, the injuries and the hottakes.

[WingsFan]

As a realist who accepts a situation as it is and is prepared to deal with it accordingly, it's still frustrating. I said 3 losses last year. When I said 8-4 this year over there and Speight is terrible and would get hurt before game 4 with this o-line I was lambasted over at MGOBLOG.

Peters should have started the year vs FL like I campaigned for as a message board fan. We would have won that game and the MSU game, probable loses at Penn State and Wisconsin. Sequence of events would have a healthy Peters going into this game and about a 40% chance of a win.

[hack]

What's a reasonable expectation that Peters stays healthy though?

[iam416]

When you're assessing the quality of a CFB team in July and August you've got pretty much nothing to go on other than what little you've observed from a spring practice open to the public informed by analytics from the previous season. You really just don't know so picking a record is pure guess work. Hard to fault anyone guessing on a W/L record at that point in time.

Sure. It's even easier to make predictions after-the-fact. So what? My point is simple: Brian and his writers are belittling, mocking and otherwise shitting on M fans who aren't happy with the season -- whose expectations have NOT been satisfied. Their expectations were not at all out of line with Brian's -- and Brian's were remarkably rosy.

If anyone is interested here is his final season prediction: http://mgoblog.com/content/preview-2...pid-prediction

Links to every position group prediction are in that link, but here's the 5Q5A for offense: http://mgoblog.com/content/five-ques...s-offense-2017

I don't agree with the notion that one guy, as talent suggests it might be in ufm's case, is wholly responsible for an outcome and therefor blameworthy in the case of a loss. There are too many moving parts in a single game to suggest that and too many coaches and players responsible for the parts moving in the right direction. i.e., assigning causation to one person, in this case the HC, is bound to be inaccurate.

This all sounds well and good. It basically reads as NO ONE is accountable because EVERYONE is accountable. I get it for an one-off game. For example, I have no fucking clue what the fuck happened to OSU's defense at Iowa. I'm not going to spend a great deal of time trying to figure it out either because it's so anomalous. I do care about a shitkicker offense over the course of 5-6 games. And that starts and ends with UFM. It's on him. If you're running read-option then you have to understand that your QB will run and if he's not your best runner (or even close) you need to figure out ways to prevent the defense from forcing that read or otherwise get the ball in the hands of truly explosive players. That's on UFM. No one else.

I think M fans criticizing HARBAUGH!!!! for the offense are not only reasonable, but correct. It's systemic.

Now, that said, they're probably at least as good as Iowa, so they'll inexplicably drop 55 on OSU and I'll kill The Wizard.

[WingsFan]

Ah yes, osu will have no chance vs the Chris Evans wildcat!

[iam416]

This year is a professional challenge to his growth as a journalist, and it's proving to be quite the challenge. Time to stop whining about the refs, the injuries and the hottakes.

If he said this -- "Look, I thought the OL would develop and emerge as an average pass-blocking unit and good run-blocking unit, and I was wrong. It is not unreasonable to expect an OL of this talent and experience to at least provide average pass protection. That is on the coaches. Period. Remember when OSU won the national title in 2014? They started gads of new guys including Billy Price whose passpro was only slightly better than a scarecrow."

Instead, it's ALWAYS Newsome!!! Hoke!!!

I consider M's OL a total failure of the staff. End of story.