Michigan @ PSU, 10/21/17, 7:30p Eastern, ABC/Stream Watch ESPN

[THE_WIZARD_]

Vegas loves M. Very consistent.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Vegas loves M for one reason and that's getting the money to fall on M so that M can continue their historically terrible record ATS.

Money in the bank for the bookies.

[The Oracle]

What's been their record against the spread? What's terrible?

[THE_WIZARD_]

M is 2-3-1 ATS this year...

[The Oracle]

Right. Was thinking "historically".

[THE_WIZARD_]

Historically...yer an idiot...

[froot loops]

The line has fallen by three to Michigan's side. Either it's public or sharps, whoever it is does not believe in the Nittany Lions. And for good reason, Michigan doesn't need the points, take this game to the money line.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Since 2014, as far back as I went, M is 19-22 ATS. They're 0-3 ATS in 2017 at home and that's probably influencing how I feel about it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

The line has fallen by three to Michigan's side. Either it's public or sharps, whoever it is does not believe in the Nittany Lions. And for good reason, Michigan doesn't need the points, take this game to the money line.

.......are you putting money on this game? No? That's what I thought.

[froot loops]

Betting is illegal in Michigan dude. I will put some imaginary money in the AA pick contest. I know The Oracle is going to lay some heavy steam on this game. The Nittany Lions are coming back to Earth, you don't need fancy stats to know that.

[THE_WIZARD_]

...I thought AA's contest was played with Confederate Money...

[hack]

We have only played 3 quarters in which Harbaugh realized putting in the air is a bad idea. It's been a bad idea all damn year. Sometimes a horrible idea and sometimes just a bad one, but, overall, not a good idea. If we get the conservative Harbaugh of last week, it'll be difficult for Penn State to cover the sprad, certainly. I'm not sure we get that version of him. His default this year has been to pass more than advisable, and I'm not convinced that changes.

[THE_WIZARD_]

HARBAUGH!!!!!!

[Jeff Buchanan]

I lifted this from Space Coyote's post in the comments section of the Fe-Fi-Foe-Film post.

I think this kind of game approach has equal capacity to produce a win compared to the more prominently appearing approach that works to shorten the game and keep the score low, i.e., a really conservative game plan.

I know people will hate this......

But the game plan has to be similar to 2013 Michigan vs PSU (yes, 27 for 27). Michigan will bring more scheme to the table to improve the RB ypc and not get nearly as much out of the QB on the ground, but the overall gameplan has to be similar.

Michigan is a run based team right now, no doubt. They have to be able to pass just enough to either A) keep PSU honest, which when they are playing honest they are a generally average run defense; or B) take advantage through the air, with chunks, when PSU isn't playing honest.

That was the idea behind the 2013 game plan, and DG finished with 8.6 YPA and Funchess had 28 yards per catch. It was enough for 27 points in regulation on offense (7 more on a pick 6). DG also had some nice chunk runs on the ground as PSU focused on the RBs (this year, the idea needs to be getting other guys involved as they focus on the RBs). If Michigan could score 34 points (I don't expect them to), I would fully expect a win. 27 would even give them a good shot. But need enough out of the pass game to either get chunk plays or allow the run game to function.

[The Oracle]

Betting is illegal in Michigan dude. I will put some imaginary money in the AA pick contest. I know The Oracle is going to lay some heavy steam on this game. The Nittany Lions are coming back to Earth, you don't need fancy stats to know that.

Ha!! I don't know about heavy steam, but I like getting 10pts vs a team with probably less talent and someone we've historically done well against. ML at +275-300 Will get slightly less action.

I am 2-1 betting M so far and you cannot argue that win %.