MICHIGAN MEN'S BASKETBALL- '23 -'24 Season.

[Cody_Russell]

I haven’t studied up on bracketology, but would guess winning 3 of 4 remaining regular season games + 1 B10 tourney game gets M in.
Very difficult, but not impossible. The path that makes sense is winning the next two regular season games and splitting the last two.

That stinky loss to CMU is a tough hurdle to get by…

[AlabamAlum]

Currently, M is 86th in RPI and 65th in NET. 26th SOS.

Quad 1: 2-9
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 6-1

No true road wins outside of Minnesota and Northwestern.

The above stats probably make an at-large bid exceedingly difficult without winning out the regular season and a deep conference championship run.

[lineygoblue]

They're done. Its NIT or nothing at this point.

They got a feel good win last night vs MSU but that will be the last hurrah for '23.

If I were coaching, I'd be playing guys the rest of the way, who I could count on for next season, to see who my real ballplayers are.

[lineygoblue]

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Michigan pays its respects to the fallen students at MSU this past week by lighting up Crisler Center in green before the opening tipoff.

[Whitley]

Currently, M is 86th in RPI and 65th in NET. 26th SOS.

Quad 1: 2-9
Quad 2: 5-2
Quad 3: 2-0
Quad 4: 6-1

No true road wins outside of Minnesota and Northwestern.

The above stats probably make an at-large bid exceedingly difficult without winning out the regular season and a deep conference championship run.

Well if they win out the reg. Season, the road wins issue goes away because three of those games are on the road and a quad one win @IU is very impressive.

At that point your have a Michigan that is 19-12 overall and 13-7 in the big ten. Probably finishing in the top 5 too.

A sweep of Northwestern and a bucket of doing the same to IU. I have a hard time seeing the NCAA leaving out a 13 win big ten team and one win in the Big Ten tourney provided the second game is not a bad loss that gets them to 20-13 probably like a 10 seed in the NCAAs.

[AlabamAlum]

Well if they win out the reg. Season, the road wins issue goes away because three of those games are on the road and a quad one win @IU is very impressive.

At that point your have a Michigan that is 19-12 overall and 13-7 in the big ten. Probably finishing in the top 5 too.

A sweep of Northwestern and a bucket of doing the same to IU. I have a hard time seeing the NCAA leaving out a 13 win big ten team and one win in the Big Ten tourney provided the second game is not a bad loss that gets them to 20-13 probably like a 10 seed in the NCAAs.

I said that a NCAA bid would be difficult without winning out. If they win out, and have a good conference tourney run, they have a decent chance. It’s a tough road to get in, but as I suggested, the door isn’t shut.


M’s last 4 games are:

-at Rutgers (which would currently be a Quad 1 opponent)
-Wisconsin (which would currently be a Quad 2 opponent)
-at Illinois (which would currently be a Quad 1 opponent)
-at Indiana (which would currently be a Quad 1 opponent)

That would have M with the following breakdown entering the BigTen Tourney:

vs:

Quad 1 teams: 5-9
Quad 2 teams: 6-2
Quad 3 teams: 2-0
Quad 4 teams: 6-1

The above slate, 5-5 on the road, with an expected NET in the top 50 would definitely have M in bubble team range for an at-large with a good tourney performance.

[hack]

I'd put the odds of making the tournament at 5%, simply because you never know and there's a ton of talent on the team, and if Jett's down for multiple games there may be Ewing Theory impacts. If I have it right, Jett has gone down for more than 15 minutes three times this year, and those games were 3 of our 4 Q1 wins. I don't know if the Purdue game he sat out supports the Ewing Theory or not. They certainly didn't play terrible without him, but at the time it felt like we could have used a sniper.

I definitely enjoyed last night's win, and suspect it's the last bit of joy we'll get this season. But it sure was a fun night. Great to see our players making big shots and doubly great to see Taurus Reed (that's gotta be his nickname given his size and the way he plays) have a breakout game. If Hunter's back, we're surely going to be going twin towers. I do wonder if Reed starts the next game, if Twill can't go. Or if he can. Probably Twill should still start, given the risk of foul trouble and having no center. It'll be interesting to see what happens. That'll keep me engaged, at least, as I am otherwise wholly ready to be done with this season and to just enjoy the games of other teams.

[AlabamAlum]

The issue is, as you know, is that the best or most-deserving teams do not always get in. There are only 36 at-large bids and that number isn’t as static as it seems: The variable is when an unexpected team (who would not qualify for an at-large bid) wins a conference tourney. They become the automatic qualifier which often results in the conference’s “good” team taking an at-large bid (instead of, as expected, being the automatic qualifier). In years where that happens a lot, it effectively reduces the at-large bids.

I know, in years past, Alabama has been burned being a bubble team because of how the conference tourneys played out.

So, the short of it, M’s Quad 1 results are very bad. The SOS is decent (but not as high as one would expect). The Wolverines need to finish the season hot and win a couple in the BigTen Tourney and hope that there aren’t a ton of upset winners in the other conference tourneys.

[Da Geezer]

I'd put the odds of making the tournament at 5%, simply because you never know and there's a ton of talent on the team, and if Jett's down for multiple games there may be Ewing Theory impacts. If I have it right, Jett has gone down for more than 15 minutes three times this year, and those games were 3 of our 4 Q1 wins. I don't know if the Purdue game he sat out supports the Ewing Theory or not. They certainly didn't play terrible without him, but at the time it felt like we could have used a sniper.

I definitely enjoyed last night's win, and suspect it's the last bit of joy we'll get this season. But it sure was a fun night. Great to see our players making big shots and doubly great to see Taurus Reed (that's gotta be his nickname given his size and the way he plays) have a breakout game. If Hunter's back, we're surely going to be going twin towers. I do wonder if Reed starts the next game, if Twill can't go. Or if he can. Probably Twill should still start, given the risk of foul trouble and having no center. It'll be interesting to see what happens. That'll keep me engaged, at least, as I am otherwise wholly ready to be done with this season and to just enjoy the games of other teams.

You are so right about Jett going down resulting in good outcomes. Tarris Reed should be starting at the 4, and that has been clear for about a month now. JWill has regressed, but I'd like to see him come off the bench after the 1-1 or double bonus kicks in because someone is going to start intentionally fouling Reed at the end of games. There is no reason for JWill and Tschetter not to spell the bigs. Reed in the lineup makes doubling on Hunter a higher risk for the defense because a pass from Hunter to Reed gets the ball to Reed where he can do something with it. We should know by now that having Hunter flinging the ball cross-court to a shooter just doesn't work.

Further, UM ranks in the 300's in offensive rebounding, and not a lot better in overall rebounding. Reed helps in this regard. A lot.

I too think UMs chance at the Tournament is very low EXCEPT: what if UM shows a lot of improvement over the next four games and the explanation is that "Tarris Reed has made this a much more formidable team." becomes a thing online. It gives the Committee a hook on which to hang a choice of UM. It also makes getting into the NIT more likely. AA is right in saying there are few available spots in the Tournament, but I'd like to change the narrative from a team that can't win the close ones to a blossoming team with a great freshman PF. We have nothing to lose in starting Reed now.

[hack]

I don't know if what happened with Reed last night is something that's going to happen every game. Sparty doesn't have the size to counter him, so going big was a good matchup decision that won't necessarily be in other games. There's also the chance that you have early foul trouble for both Hunter and Reed, in which case you're screwed. I think my solution would be to get Williams back but to play Reed more and to try Baker as the starting three. Reed is really exciting, I have to say. But he also had a really rough stretch in the first half. Still a freshman.

[Cody_Russell]

One factor I’m considering is M was egregiously given a favorable seeding last year. 11 seed vs Colorado State.
If M is close to the bubble (3 more regular season wins + 1 B10 tourney win), I totally expect the selection committee to take care of M… 😉

All that said, very unlikely to get to this point barring a Tarris Reed late season takeover.

[hack]

Taurus Reed.

[Whitley]

Very good defensive effort for Michigan tonight and they win Back to Work Pistons style. Next up is Wisky at home.

[Whitley]

And with the win Michigan makes the ESPN Bubble Watch



Michigan Wolverines

Juwan Howard's team has been statistically compatible all season long with the swarm of Big Ten teams just below Purdue in the standings. Now, Michigan has the wins to go with those numbers. A 13-point victory on the road against Rutgers handed the Scarlet Knights just their second defeat of the season at Jersey Mike's Arena. UM also owns a season sweep of Northwestern as well as wins over Maryland and Pittsburgh. This isn't a profile likely to earn an at-large bid at the moment, but the Wolverines are in the game. Michigan has opportunities remaining at home against Wisconsin and on the road at Illinois and Indiana. (updated Feb. 23)

[Da Geezer]

Very good defensive effort for Michigan tonight and they win Back to Work Pistons style. Next up is Wisky at home.

Particularly good defense when both Reed and Dickenson are on the floor. It remains a mystery why Coach Howard won't play them as a pair until there is about 10 min to go.

Bufkin shines when Jett is not in the lineup. He is simply a better overall player than Jett because he plays defense and Jett seems unwilling to rebound.