The Rest of College Football

[Dr. Strangelove]

It's been years since there was any significant realignment news but this is sort of major for hoops. It's a big loss for the American Conference but would seem to make a lot of sense for UConn to go back to more traditional rivals.

The unknown factor is what happens to UConn football. The American might not want them as a football-only member, in which case their options are grim. Conference USA makes little sense and the MAC seems too small for them. They may lean towards being an Independent.

https://www.espn.com/college-sports/story/_/id/27030819/sources-uconn-expected-rejoin-big-east

[crashcourse]

this is nauseating

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/college/big-12/university-of-kansas/article231869418.html

[Cody_Russell]

Uh oh, the Les Miles effect.

So use to Purdue and Kansas fighting for the worst P5 recruiting class. Brohm changed that. ... and Miles is doing a lot better than the previous HCs at Kansas so far.

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is a really good - as in concise - run down of the 2019 teams that have potential to make the CFB play-offs. I really like Bill Connely's S&P stats and he has moved to ESPN from his former home at SB Nation. Here are the two teams we're interested. Click the link for the rest of the contenders:

OSU (+900) - Alabama is the #1 pick to get to the play-offs at +240

If ... Justin Fields lives up to blue-chip hype ... and doesn't get hurt. I know, I said I wasn't going to mention QB injuries. But considering what else Ohio State has on the roster besides the sophomore Georgia transfer -- former WVU backup Chris Chugunov, former Kentucky backup Gunnar Hoak, and that's about it -- an injury here would be absolutely devastating, more than for other top teams.

Fields was an all-world recruit in 2018, and Georgia used him in awfully confusing ways last year. To keep him involved, the Dawgs would periodically send him onto the field for one snap, usually a zone read. Wasteful. (We won't even talk about the fake punt.)

Fields' full-season stats (with most of the passing numbers coming in garbage time) were excellent: 27-for-39 passing, 7.7 yards per non-sack carry. But now he's got to throw meaningful passes, all while wrapped in bubble wrap.

If ... the Ohio State run game becomes the Ohio State run game again. In 2017, JK Dobbins and Mike Weber gained 2,029 yards on 295 carries. In 2018, they gained 2,007 ... on 402. Without much of a run threat from Dwayne Haskins, the Buckeyes' run game was a lot more basic, and it showed. **How Ryan Day uses Fields will be fascinating because he is extremely mobile, and he could be exactly what last year's run game was missing ... if you can actually risk him running the ball and taking more hits. Dobbins could use the help.


If ... the defense suffers fewer catastrophes. Ohio State's defense didn't suffer glitches in 2018; it suffered Armageddon. The Buckeyes allowed 39 gains of 30-plus yards, almost as many as they allowed in 2016 and 2017 combined (42). And a lot of these breakdowns happened on passing downs -- second-and-8 or more, third-or-fourth-and-5 or more -- in which the defense is supposed to have the advantage. With juniors and seniors manning the secondary instead of sophomores and juniors, the excuses are minimal.

I ** this point. I think it is huge. My bet is that besides just wanting to run his run-centric, power offense, Harbaugh wanted to protect Patterson. The change to M's offense that Gattis will bring will feature a lot more RPO which, given M's depth at QB, the risk of an injury to Patterson is substantially reduced if he actually runs more. osu/day don't have depth at QB. I think this is going to limit what kind of exposure to running the ball day is going to allow.

Michigan (+1500)

If ... Josh Gattis brings some pep and unpredictability to Ann Arbor. Jim Harbaugh hired offensive coordinator Josh Gattis from Alabama to clean off the rust and ossification that had beset the Michigan attack at times. The Wolverines were both predictable (22nd in standard downs run rate) and plodding (123rd in adjusted pace). And despite their run-heavy approach, the Wolverines couldn't actually run the ball all that well. They were 84th in rushing marginal efficiency, and in three losses Michigan backs averaged just 3.8 yards per carry.

If ... Shea Patterson finds a No. 1 receiver. Patterson's full-season numbers were decent (65 percent completion rate, 12.4 yards per completion, 82.0 QBR), but that's mostly because he torched lesser opponents. In games against more evenly matched opponents, the passing game was harmless.

Against five opponents that finished the year ranked, Patterson still completed 62 percent of his throws, but at just 11.3 yards per completion. It was 10.3 in three losses. Donovan Peoples-Jones averaged 18.4 yards per catch against unranked foes and 8.7 against ranked. Be it Peoples-Jones, Nico Collins, a finally healthy Tarik Black, or someone else, the Wolverines need a playmaker against the teams with the strongest pulse.

If ... blitz downs are a bit less all-or-nothing. Don Brown's defense was again mostly dominant in 2018, ranking ninth in Def. S&P+. UM has been in the top 10 in all three of his seasons in Ann Arbor. But while his attack usually worked, it failed at key times. On blitz downs (which I define as second-and-super-long and third-or-fourth-and-5 or more), Michigan ranked a solid 15th in success rate and fifth in sack rate. But the Wolverines also gave up 20-plus yards on 8.5 of blitz downs, 69th overall. Florida enjoyed gains of 53, 30 and 28 on blitz downs, and Ohio State enjoyed big gains on both blitz downs and regular downs.

If ... the Big House does its part. Michigan gets both Ohio State and Michigan State at home, which sounds great except for the fact that Harbaugh is 0-4 against these two rivals in Ann Arbor. An enormous home crowd can become an anxiety-heavy disadvantage when an aura of "Here we go again" wafts in.

What caught my eye here are the 2018 S&P stats Connelly brings to this 2019 evaluation. To me, it shows that one knowledgeable observer thinks M might continue to over-focus on the run game and the FB running out of 2X formations instead of 1X. Harbaugh does that with Gattis on the staff will douse any enthusiasm I might have had for 2019 and probably beyond. An important point here is that you have to actually run a "speed in space offense" in actual games to get good at it. There shouldn't be any holding back or playing down to the level of competition. Harbaugh has to go all-in with the kind of offense Gattis has the potential to bring to Michigan football and run it until he's ready to put the twos and threes in.

He also dings Don Brown's defensive philosophy suggesting Brown might want to dial it back a bit and teach his back end how to play solid zone defense.

https://www.espn.com/college-footbal...national-title

[Dr. Strangelove]

RIP Jared Lorenzen. Sounds like he was a great guy. One of the best and most fitting nicknames ever..."Battleship"

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, this is shocking ........... you all are familiar with ESPN's FPI, right. It's a fancy stat, not my fav but still (I like S&P+). That's neither here nor there.

ESPN's pre-season FPI (about as useless as a fart filled aqua lung but, as I said, "still") ranks M in the top 5 behind Clemson, Bama, UGA and LSU in that order. osu ranks 13th, yes, 13th!!! and one spot below PSU. This will piss-off talent. Good. And, if the pre-season ranking holds serve and M is #5 come Selection Sunday and does not get into the CFP because the SEC has bag-men, I will be pissed-off.

Also appearing in the FPI rankings from the BT are Iowa (23) and MSU (14)

But wait, there's more ...... never underestimate Michigan's chances of not having good things happen, suffering a season ending injury to a key starter, the officials in close games, osu actually being good behind Justin Fields. Or not.

MSU is wayyyyy over-rated you'd think, but, no. Fart face will pull off another "unexpected" season with Lewerke being wayyyyy better than expected. He will still suffer another humiliating loss to M (assuming they are healthy) in AA on November 16th (Brrrrr) with M having a bye just before that game. MSU will get a NYD Bowl and osu will not. I can only dream.

PSU? Franklin. Enough said. Besides, they are really not playing with a well endowed roster.

Iowa, will, once again behind the Dean of BT coaches, pull off an upset or two or three. Just as long as it's not Michigan at the hands of some fucking official (and that won't matter to Ferentz but will for Harbaugh if for some crazy reason M collapses) ...... and win the BT West. No, wait, Nf'ingW or Neb. Personally I have had enough of Fitz and The Wiz (not the Broadway show) can still go fuck himself over claims of Neb superiority in the split NC with M. I wish him and the Cornholers only the worst for 2019. Neb and Frosty will succumb to some stupid, completely unexpected fuck-up. I can only hope.

So, to sum it all up at this very early juncture: Iowa will win the West and M will win the East. M will prevail at Indy and get hammered in the first round of the CFP by whoever gets the long straw between Bama, UGA and whoever is not LSU. Neb and MSU will get NYD Bowls (or whatever they are these days) and osu and PSU will fight it out for something after Christmas day. The rest, including FnW, I could care less about.

But what about Oregon (#10 in the FPI) and OU (#6), you ask? Ha, ha, time for an 8 team college football play-off.

This is the easiest link to see the rankings:

http://www.espn.com/college-football/statistics/teamratings

This is the TLDR link because I read it for you:

https://247sports.com/League/NCAA-FB/USA_Today_Rankings/

[lineygoblue]

Just go undefeated in November, and I'll be fine.

[WM Wolverine]

Sparty was very solid last season and return most their important players... They should do very well when not playing the top teams...

Ditto Iowa who lost their tight ends and not much else they can't replace... They are a good bet to win the West with Wisconsin looking down.

Back to the B1G west, those head to head games (NW, Nebraska, Purdue, Iowa) will be critical. Haven't looked at schedules both playing 2+ of M, Buckeyes, Lions will make it much tougher for anyone.

-

Since you prefer S&P I'd use that to gauge the Buckeyes talent, Jeff. Getting embarrassed in the CFP doesn't interest me, I'd prefer winning a NYD to a butt kicking in the CFP.

No, we don't need an 8 team playoff. We just need to decide the top four after the bowl games.

[iam416]

Anyone thinking M is anything other than 15-0 this year is crazy. HARBUAGH!!!!

[lineygoblue]

No, we don't need an 8 team playoff. We just need to decide the top four after the bowl games.

That would be interesting, considering that more and more players are taking the bowl game off, to prepare themselves for the NFL Combine, and to avoid injuries that may interfere with the Combine.

[THE_WIZARD_]

shaddup

[froot loops]

The Spartans defense could be 2013 good. It can be the kind of defense that can stand up against the good teams unlike the Harbaugh/Brown defenses of the past few years. They have to keep Lewerke healthy though, the defense won't matter one bit if the QB is attempting to pass with a broken wing like last year.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Moderately interesting list of where previous M coaches and players are now.

Notably RichRod is the OC at Mississippi State. A coaching position he is just about perfect for. Glad he landed on his feet after his alleged dirtball activity as HC at Arizona.

Hoke is at SDSU as DL coach ...... another perfect position for him. He is a great teacher but not a great HC.

Al Borges is where he needs to be ..... out of football altogether.

DJ Durkin is holding down some sort of analyst position with Nick Saban, joining that crowd of morally and ethically corrupt coaches at Alabama.

AA, hello

Rest of the list here:

https://touch-the-banner.com/ex-wolv...s-summer-2019/

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[AlabamAlum]

Jeff,

Why do you lie? DJ Durkin is with the Falcons.