The Rest of College Football

[Jeff Buchanan]

This is an interesting diary from mgo. It identifies the CFP Committee members and does a chalk board ranking of what this poster thinks the Committee looks at. M comes in at #5. The comments section has an interesting breakdown by DonAZ of what happens "if."

https://mgoblog.com/diaries/understanding-first-cfp-ranking-tomorrow-night

[iam416]

M won't be any higher than 5. As long as they're ahead of OU, they're golden.

[froot loops]

If Michigan wins out, they are in. You don't even need to watch those stupid selections shows nor do you need to scour the depths of MgBlog. As an aside, you should never be scour the depths of that place. Yuuuuck.

Nothing is ever chalk, the only scenario you have to worry about is everything being chalk up to the point where Alabama loses in the SEC championship game, a Rube Goldberg scenario if there ever was one.

[Jeff Buchanan]

talent ......Correct.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Froot ...... I wouldn't expect you to plumb the depths of mgoboard. But there are some very good analytics that go on there. It's 10%, the rest of mgoboard is as you describe it.

The web site with paid feature writers though is another story. It is arguably one of the best football fan sites out there.

[iam416]

Georgia winning out and beating Alabama in the CG would mean 2 SEC teams.

[froot loops]

Like I said a Rube Goldberg scenario.

[Jeff Buchanan]

You're saying that a one loss Alabama gets in along with an undefeated ND and ACC Conference Champ, Clemson, right? I don't think so. A one loss BT conference champ jumps Alabama - the committee is not going to put 2 SEC teams in thereby shutting out 3 other P5 conference champs.

Granted the PAC12 isn't getting in but the B12 will have a say and if things play out the way they should, the BT champ will have a much better resume than the B12 winner.......

...... otherwise CHAOS (from mgoboard):

Chaos scenario: LSU beats Alabama, Alabama loses to Auburn, and the SEC east team wins the championship game; Clemson trips up prior to the ACC championship, then they lose the ACC championship; Notre Dame notches two losses between now and selection; the Big 12 ends up with three teams with two losses, with WVU named the champ; Northwestern wins the B1G; Washington State wins the Pac-12. The only sure thing from that scenario is the SEC champ gets in.

[froot loops]

History tells us that a few of those teams will suffer losses. I expect some of those teams to lose, if Alabama loses in a tight SEC conference game against Georgia, it will be tough to keep them out.

[WM Wolverine]

Clemson and ND don't even play three decent opponents combined, that's including the ACC CG.

[iam416]

A one loss BT conference champ jumps Alabama - the committee is not going to put 2 SEC teams in thereby shutting out 3 other P5 conference champs.

I can't speak for M, but I feel extremely confident that a 12-1 Alabama that loses to Georgia is in over a 12-1 Ohio State. And if I were to speak for M, I'd say Alabama would be in unless M's wins get better.

And why wouldn't they? Alabama rewarded their eye test faith last year by winning the CFP. Meanwhile, the last 2 B10 teams in the CFP have lost by a combined score of 69-0. And, btw, my feelingsball analysis says that when the B10 champ plays Alabama, they're going to get asshammered in roughly the same fashion.

[iam416]

Clemson's schedule is legitimately horrific. If they weren't Clemson then they'd have some issues. Notre Dame's schedule is meh. M's schedule, btw, is total meh, too. One wonders how many top 25 teams M will play. Right now it's probably going to be 3. And right now they've beaten ZERO. Ohio State's schedule is awful, too.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Bammer, Clempson, Flying Marties and B1G Chumps. Book it.

[WingsFan]

Temple had 445 yards against UCF... in the 1st half

[WM Wolverine]

UCF has a few more mediocre opponents to play, Cincy, USF and potentially Houston in CCG. 1 loss would doom them.