Michigan Football, Team 137, 2016 Season.

[Wellington_beefhouser]

On a football related note, I've read some stuff about Ahmir Mitchell being suspended this entire year. Cannot confirm though.

[WM Wolverine]

He's a true freshman so that would just use his redshirt. Shelton Johnson redshirted last season but he's got a lot of talent in front of him on the depth chart. Most kids in as much trouble as they are rumored to be, won't last long at M.

[The Oracle]

Good point. My counter to that would be that some of those Top 300 guys/the experienced guys you list either turned out to really not be that good or they are good but got shit coaching during there first couple of years under Hoke.

I think M's run game last year was a reflection of how the offensive unit as a whole under-performed due to actually not being as good as their HS rankings or because of poor coaching and lost years under Hoke.

Team 136 had a tendency to play well against shit teams with equal or less talent (including the bowl game against UF) and play average to below average against teams with equal (MSU) or better (osu) talent. I think the loss to osu demonstrates in spades how little elite talent and/or depth M has right now. If these guys you list had been as good as some think they are, the loss to osu would not have been a blow-out and M would have put MSU away early and the blocked punt would have been meaningless to the outcome.....

.......and on that note, it's time that the loss to MSU be framed not as a once in a life time occurrence that gave Sparty an undeserved win but rather as a huge blown opportunity on M's part to optimize the talent advantage in some units they did have over MSU and win that game going away.

So, are these kind-of average guys on offense, that assessment based on last years performance, suddenly play at an elite level? I'll acknowledge it could happen because of HARBAUGH!!! but there is nothing on the books so far that says it will.

M has more developed talent than anyone in the conference this year. A shit ton of guys will get drafted off this team. Stop being a little bitch. Anything less than 10 wins this year will be disappointing, as well as every year moving forward. RR and Hoke ain't walking through that door.

[Jeff Buchanan]

M has more developed talent than anyone in the conference this year. A shit ton of guys will get drafted off this team. Stop being a little bitch. Anything less than 10 wins this year will be disappointing, as well as every year moving forward. RR and Hoke ain't walking through that door.

I'm not sure your assessment, "has more developed talent than anyone in the conference" is measurable in an objective way. It also, in my view, does not translate to the kind of elite level performance in 2016 that I spoke of and believe is required to move through the BT, get to the BT Championship, win it, advance to the play-offs and to the NC game. That was what I said in my post. I don't think M has the elite talent (developed or not, experienced or not) to do that.

I go back to my assessment that if such talent were present in 2016, the score of the osu game would have been much closer and M would have put MSU away early such that the blocked kick returned for a TD would not had have had an impact on the outcome

I also predicted 9.5 to 10 wins for 2016 in my post with a lean towards 10. That's a pretty uniform prediction among the objectively informed. I'm not particularly fond of characterizing a season as being a success or a disappointment - too subjective. You either win championships with a record that obtains these or you don't; the goal, as it is defined by JH, is to win championships. I agree with him.

Numbers (e.g., FEI) are predictive in an objective way. My view is that the 2015 offensive numbers don't support the notion that M's 2016 offense is going to be good enough to do what I said M can't do in my original post. You may find that view characterizes me as a "little bitch." I'd call it an objectively based, honest appraisal of team 137.

Sorry to rain on your subjective march to an undisputed NC for M or your anecdotal and objectively unsupportable observations.

[Mike]

Michigan won 10 games last year. They will be better this year while playing an easier schedule.

Do the math, Jeff!!

[iam416]

M won 9 regular season games last year, and that's what we're talking about. I think they're a 10.5 win team, so I think it's 10 or 11 and went with 10. I don't think 11 is unreasonable, but I don't think the offense will be there to make that pick comfortably.

[Mike]

10-2 would be a catastrophe.

[Hannibal]

10-2 would be failure for sure, unless those two losses are chokes against teams that aren't competing for the B1G East. In that event, I'll totally take it.

[iam416]

I'm beginning to think that for a significant portion of the fanbase -- maybe not a majority, but a significant portion -- that 11-1, losing in Columbus and not going to the B10CG (assuming OSU only loses 1 conference game) would be a catastrophe.

I assume your 10-2 includes a loss to MSU which I also assume is the absolute single game HARBAUGH!!!!! can't lose this season. 10-2 with losses at Iowa and OSU doesn't seem catastrophic to me.

[iam416]

Also, while the 3 posts on gateway drugs/cigarettes were, obviously, on topic, I think this is slightly more on topic and I haven't seen it yet:

Michigan is #7 in the AP Preseason (#8 in coaches). With the way their schedule sets up they should ease into the top 3 by the middle of October at the latest.

[Hannibal]

That 10-2 that I just spoke of does not include a loss to MSU or OSU.

[iam416]

Right, I was referring to Mike's catastrophic 10-2.

[Mike]

10-2, to me, would mean losing two of Iowa/MSU/OSU. Unacceptable.

[Hannibal]

Next year's "way too early" starting lineup...

QB -- O'Korn
WR -- Harris?, DPJ?
Slot -- Perry
TE -- Wheatley/Bunting
OT -- Bredenson, Newsome
OG -- Dawson, Ulizio (?)
C -- Cole

DE -- Winovich, Gary
DT -- Hurst(?), assuming he doesn't leave early
Nose -- Mone
LB -- Furbush, McCray, Bush(?) -- assuming Peppers is gone
CB -- Watson, Long (?)
S -- Kinnel, Hudson

Returning starters are in bold. That lineup is loaded with guys who have never even been on the field. And a few more guys who have barely seen action. There might be a couple of guys in the starting lineup who haven't even committed to Michigan yet. Maybe a true freshman on the OL? If you think that we have question marks this year then holy shit, look at 2017.

[The Oracle]

[QUOTE=Jeff Buchanan;1037712]I'm not sure your assessment, "has more developed talent than anyone in the conference" is measurable in an objective way. /QUOTE]

They'll have a shit ton of guys drafted off of this year's team in the '17 draft. That's how I measure that.