Michigan 56, Nebraska 10.

[UMStan White]

"There were two endings, I think you missed one of them ........"

OOPS. My bad! (teach me to spout off on things I know nothing about!)

[hack]

teach me to spout off on things I know nothing about

I think Wiz is the best teacher available for that.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Hello

[Jeff Buchanan]

The general consensus from writers doing such things on the web is that without Martinez, Neb can't win this game. Andrew Bunch is the back-up. He's a walk-on and was overwhelmed last week v. Troy. Even if A-MART plays, if he is limited in running capability, the offense is much less lethal. He's been practicing per reports wearing a brace on his knee. His passing game is ok when he has time to throw and he's got some stud WRs and slots to toss it to. M has trouble with plays like this when the LBs get matched up with these guys. Under pressure though, Martinez tends to do things freshman QBs do - throw into coverage. Frost calls the short passing game off a 2-step drop to mitigate that. Expect it. A lot, perhaps with the intent to protect A-Mart.

In a conversation between one M host and several Nebraska bloggers, none of them had anything good to say about Nebraska's chance to go into Ann Arbor and win. Among the problems discussed was the one raised earlier in the week about players not buying in to Scott Frost's game. This isn't a technical issue about football; its about the contrast between the atmosphere when Riley was HC compared to Frost. Apparently there is a perception that players don't want to work as hard as Frost expects them to.

We've experienced this sort of talk about Michigan when in Carr's final 2 years it was alleged that there was a country club atmosphere that produced soft players on the field. It seems like Nebraska running back coach Ryan Held is pumping himself and his players up and is ready for a battle on Saturday:



If I were a Nebraska player, I'd want this game bad ..... real bad. So there are those sorts of emotions in this game that are probably present. For M, while losing this game probably won't have a bearing on the East outcome, it can't help. Given that the teams goals probably took a hit with the loss to ND, the BTC is still very much in play. I'd think the M players are equally charged up for this game and might want it a bit more than a reeling Scott Frost team, despite the pumping up routine he and his staff have performed this week.

There are all kinds of hints out there this week that M hasn't shown 1/2 of it's play-book yet (Onwenu) or expect more body blows from M's offense (Pep - whose obviously been reading criticisms of the play calling on the web). Not sure what else Harbaughffense can pull out of it's ass considering who JH is and what kind of football he plays. Power still has to work in Jim's offense and so far it hasn't been working as good as it should. In fact, Brian made a telling comment in his UFR piece yesterday that he couldn't figure out what he was looking at with the run blocking schemes and concluded they were derps not something new used to confuse the SMU defenders. That's not encouraging. Higdon and Evans are both practicing reportedly at 100% so, that is encouraging.

Will Ambry Thomas do something totally unexpected that doesn't involve a jet sweep? Peppers never did anything other than the Pep-Cat and that typifies what the offensive brain trust has come up with during Harbaugh's tenure- a decent concept play that never gets run differently and therefore tells the defense exactly what is coming. More PA or RPOs where Patterson fakes to air? More read option where it appears that the option is pre-determined to minimize Patterson's exposure to hits? i.e., v. SMU, he had at least one obvious keep with the DE, setting up for outside zone v. WIlson, going way outside in the process, where if Patterson keeps and runs off JBB's right hip, it's a huge play. He didn't and threw a pass to the flat for 5 yards. I dunno, man but what M fans have seen, compared to what was expected with Patterson at QB, in the last 3 games is not awe inspiring. Patterson is certainly an upgrade from the QB debacle of 2017 with DPJ hauling in a fair share of deep throws and both Higdon and Evans having had some nice runs. But, like I said, I dunno.

If there was going to be any kind of improvement in the appearance of the offense, they could start by scoring on their opening drive and forcing a Neb 3 and out before or following that. That would be nice. Patterson is going to face pressure because that is the recipe to disrupt M's offense. It's going to come off A-Gap blitzes because RBs not named Wilson are missing that pick-up on the regular and OL slants and stunts are allowing too many DTs a free run into the back field. The good thing about this is that these things are obvious to even casual observers. You'd think the coaching staff would be able to clean this sort of thing up after 3 games, right? I expect that along with a reduction in stupid penalties. BTW, all the PI calls in the SMU game had a lot to do with how this crew interpreted the subjective nature of the PI rules except, M defenders, can be as handsy all they want as long as they sense it and stop grabbing when the ball is in the air, get their heads around near the catch and fight for it. They weren't doing that as well as they should.

For reasons that are not clear to me, slants and the screen game have been missing or poorly executed and rarely repeated after the failure of one of those plays. We could see more of that I suppose and it is certainly called for as punishment for teams that load the box. All-in-all though, I think this is going to be a dog fight between two determined teams until the 3rd quarter. Half time score will be uncomfortably close fo M fans. I expect A-Mart will play and I'll be surprised if he is held out. If he starts, I'm not sure he'll finish as typically Winovich lines up over the weak R tackle spot that Neb has been fortifying with TEs. Bush, Winovich or Gary are going to knock him down and knock him down a lot if he has to 3 count or more to let a deep play develop. That makes an M win a bit more likely. Assuming Martinez plays .........

M 41 - Neb 27

[hack]

Get Ambry Thomas on the damn field, and in a meaningful way. PLEASE.

[WM Wolverine]

I'd love to see Brown use his nickel more, someone who can cover better than Kinnel.

[WM Wolverine]

Said the same last season when kinnel was being targeted whenever the opposition needed a first down.

[Detroit Dan]

Good comments, all (except Wizard). I also would like to see Ambry Thomas more, after the way we got burned by Proche last week. Also, Jalen Kelly-Powell who is now healthy after being hurt for the first 3 games.

If Martinez plays and is healthy, I think Nebraska will score 20-25 points. The key to me is M's offense. Can we repeat the strong offensive performances of the last 2 weeks against the Cornhuskers? Nebraska gave up 351 yards passing to Colorado, so we probably will be able to move the ball if we go to the air and risk a few sacks (Nebraska had 7 against Colorado). Harbaugh is now the old timer against this young punk Frost. Should be interesting.

[THE_WIZARD_]

With A-Mart:
M 34 UNL 21

Without A-Mart:
M 48 UNL 3

[entropy]

UNL does not have stud WR's... You'd not exchange any of your for UNL's. They are the strength of the offense, but that is a relative term. People in Nebraska think they are studs, but they drop passes and put up numbers last year playing from behind. They don't make big plays when the game is on the line. In fact vs CU the one of UNL's "studs" dropped an extremely catchable ball while going to his knees... UNL ended up missing a fg 2 plays later. The other "stud" dropped a routine first down pass that would have extended UNL's drive late in the game. Instead, Nebraska punts.. CU scores... and wins the game

Regarding the QB situation.... I, personally, would keep AM out of this game. You're not going to win and save him for the long haul. This is a rebuilding year and treat it as such. Since UNL's #2 QB transferred to Oregon State when he wasn't named the starter the week before the season started, UNL is forced to play a walkon third string QB who, as noted above, is overwhelmed. He has decent skills, but he's overmatched at this level. Not many teams can go three deep at QB and have quality. UNL has recruited something like 11 QB's over the past 10 years and something like 8 transferred or quit. This happens with 3 system changes in 5 years. So UNL has one QB on it's roster with a scholarship.. one. It's a transition year. And frankly the talk of 2-3 years is probably more like 3-5 now.

[Jeff Buchanan]

.......Regarding the QB situation.... I, personally, would keep AM out of this game. You're not going to win and save him for the long haul. This is a rebuilding year and treat it as such........

Interesting.

First, I'm 60/40 against Frost's version of spread and shred working in the BIG. Admittedly, I'm biased. M fans almost uniformly thought the Rodriguez hire, supposedly based on his innovative offenses at WVU, was going to spring board his version of the spread and shred into a success, reviving M's moribund power schemes under LC and MD. Didn't happen for a lot of reasons not related to that style of offense but despite Denard's prodigious skills, he was injured enough to dilute them by about 60%, maybe more. That along with the notion that RR didn't appear to understand that his teams have to play defense, insured his offenses weren't going to shine.

Second, I don't think QB dependent schemes, those that depend on the QB as a running back more than not, aren't sustainable in the BT ......maybe anywhere. The shift to less running and more passing by the QB in spready offenses, that shift consistent with the hybridization of modern CFB offenses to more of a pro-style, is definitely already underway.

Treat it as a rebuilding year? Dunno how successful that approach is likely to be in sustaining fan and donor support. Harbuagh's fan support has definitely waned from those early heady years after he signed on and during his first year, winning ten games but no championships and going 1-6 against M's rivals and 8-5 last season with a dreadful performance v. Usc in the bowl game. The loss to ND to open the 2018 season prompted plenty of calls for him to admit CFB is not for him and for him return to the Pros.

The thing about Harbaugh that may also pertain to Frost is that both are, or in Frost's case, will be, the best options for a HC. I think that is what is sustaining Harbaugh not to mention that he's not getting fired any time soon over the on-field performance of the Michigan football team. He's locked in because he is going to "do things the Michigan way" and the people paying the bills want it that way. Fans be damned.

Maintaining donor support and season ticket sales though is an entirely different animal and that is crucial. Dave Brandon fucked that up with his stupid hire of Brady Hoke and the monetization of everything about the M football game day experience. He got tarred and feathered and run out of town on a rail so to speak. But his crazy pricing persists. Now, a family of four wanting a bite to eat inside the stadium is looking at $100 for that experience and after paying nearly $300 for 4 tickets to games other than rivalry games, probably close to $500 for those, and the game day experience better be wonderful.

It wasn't last weekend and most of that had to do with the heat combined with excruciating delays associated with injury time outs, media time outs, time outs in general, a game that was over officiated, inconsistent and frustrating football and a marching band performance that was distastefully political. During the game, I heard a lot of grumbling and after the game, the common theme was, I'm not sure I'm going to do this any more. The game day expereince has been diminished. Why, when I can watch from home, get up and pee during a commercial or injury time out break, drink a cold beverage a few steps away, sit comfortably inside and yell at the TV or turn it off when the football is so bad it is unwatchable.

I would think that could be an issue at Nebraska whose fans are as impatient as M fans where expectations about bringing Nebraska football back to championship form run high.

[entropy]

Jeff.. you made a lot of assumptions about my one sentence. Frost doesn't actually run the QB that often. Enough that you have to respect it but not like Solich ran Crouch or TO ran Frost. That's not his system. I'm not worried about AM running. I'm worried about a shitty OL letting someone through and a Mich DE collapsing that knee. Let it heal.

And Frost is in year one. Donor support will be there in year two, especially if there is improvement as the season progresses. Riley is being blamed. JH is out of that grace period so it's different. I'd also argue he inherited a program and players that fight his systems. Frost did not.

But assuming you're correct and Frost needs to win this year.... are you going to beat Purdue and NW with a walkon 3rd string QB or AM? Save him..

[entropy]

As for Frost's offense working in the BIG... I see no reason why it wouldn't. It will work better than a pro style due what kids are playing in HS and the limits on coaching allowed at the college level. Do I like it? I still miss TO's offense. I've often said it was poetry. I still enjoy watching Navy play and actually prefer watching their games over others. But kids don't like playing in that system. Do I worry Frost's system is great between the 20's? Yes. That might be the only place it is great. If the knock is Oregon didn't win the big one with this offense, that's ok. What UNL has had the last 15 years is very tradable for what Oregon had with Frost calling the plays. I'll take it. I'm hoping he can mesh in more power running... we will see. Right now returning to a top 20 program is the goal. It's been long enough. You can build from there...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, maybe Frost isn't going to run A-Mart as much as I assume he would but at UCF, in 2017, Frost ran Milton, his QB, 106X. He was the second leading rusher behind Adrain Killiins (790y) running for 613y. It's hard to break out the stats but it looks like Frost was 60/40 run pass with the average run/pass attempts per game through the 2017 season at 38/22. His offense at UCF was run orietned and the QB carried about a third of that load. That's a lot of hits.

But, your point is well taken. M is going to be tough on the edges in the pass rush department and that is certainly a situation where a high injury risk, not involving any running, is present to whoever is QB.

[entropy]

I'll try to find the details.. but somebody posted that actual QB run plays were 4-6 against most opponents. Against better opponents that number rose to 8. Where things become a little fuzzy is QB scrambles. For example, AM had a couple long runs vs CU where the play broke down and he took off.

I'm fine with a QB running 8 times a game. Just don't do it 20. jmo


Frost wants wider splits by his OL. Just like Oregon ran. That means he'll give up size for foot speed. That doesn't mean he wants 260lb guys, but 300 is just fine. Currently, UNL's OL was recruited for Bo's A frame blocking approach (grab the guy in front of you) and Riley's Pro Style, pass blocking OL. They're a bad fit. It shows when you watch the game. They'll blast a whole for the RB to carry the ball 20 yds. Next play, 5 yard loss. They're not quick enough. Michigan would be smart to give up contain for shooting the gaps or space where the OL pull. If you can't move, it's tough to trap block. Michigan would give up some yards doing this, but they'd also create numerous drives where UNL is in a second and 15. They'd win a lot more than they lost as well.

Also, the freshman RB that has a lot of talent only carries the ball in his right arm. He's worth a fumble every game.