Michigan @ PSU, Saturday, 10/19, 7:30pm, ABC/ESPN 3 Video

[Tom W]

Nope.

You said not to go against Harbaugh with his back against the wall. I say he's already shown what he does with his back against the wall. Its not promising.

Straight up win/lose or no deal.

In all honesty, his back wasn't against the wall in Columbus- it was more like the table was set in front of him and fell flat on his face right in front of it.

[Jeff Buchanan]

........ M wins it!............

That's what you posted. It wasn't M covers. You said exactly what you meant, you were offered a bet to back up your claim and now you're blabbering about not constructing the wager. That's technically correct, you didn't construct the wager but you opened your pie-hole in an M forum that knows the odds of that happening are slim to none and boldly claimed M would win.

KYR, think carefully before boldy proclaiming anything of substance about M football and after doing so, you just might keep your pie-hole shut next time.

[lineygoblue]

His post wasn't serious to begin with, but I think what smarts for him is that he was called on it.

We saw last year how Harbaugh performs "with his back against the wall" (62-39 anyone?) As of today, he's no better than his two predecessors when it comes to those types of games.

They're going to lose in HV on Saturday, and its going to be embarrassing, humiliating, and disgraceful to what used to be a proud program that prided itself on playing with excellence.

They'll lose because Harbaugh has checked out on reality. He says his offense is 'coming along nicely' but he has a QB that either doesn't understand, or doesn't like the offense he's being asked to run. Maybe both. But that's fine with Harbaugh, because its "coming along nicely".

The entire CFB world will see how "nicely" the offense is coming along on Saturday. And they'll see it again the following week against ND.

And OSU? LOL... they can't wait to lay another embarrassment on Michigan in a mostly red Michigan Stadium. Great times for them. Gold panties for everyone.

And nobody on State Street cares.

[AlabamAlum]

[Jeff Buchanan]

I don't think M will win but the spread is solidly up to +9 and the ESPN Power Rankings give M only a 21% chance of winning. Those are big numbers against an M D that seems to be rounding out.

It looks like QB Sean Clifford, RB Noah Cain and Slot guy KJ Hamler are going to make the PSU offense go or not. PSU's OL is not terrible but also not elite. They controlled DE Epeneza of Iowa fame but so did M's. I really liked how Don Brown deployed his defense v. Iowa, not so much v. Illinois. I'd say PSU's O is more like a better, more creative version of Iowa's than it is like Illinois. So, Don, what'll it be? IMO, stopping Cain becomes priority one until it's obvious that Clifford is on and if he is that means paying attention to his short stuff.

Clifford was rough starting out at Kinnick with Norm Parker bringing a ton of pressure to start the game. It's reported he backed off a bit when Clifford starting hitting screens and crossing routes in blitz vacated zones. Again, Parker is not anywhere near as creative with pressure than Brown is so, bring it. The difference here is that Clifford will be playing in friendly circumstances. I still don't think PSU is going to score a lot of points with Brown having sort-of adjusted to the threat of pressure mitigating quick passes. It takes a lot of discipline from the switching Ss and LBs in Brown's system and that action was suspect v. Illinois with what looked to be some confusion on the chunk plays Illinois got. Keeping McGrone in at LB if Ross is healthy is a good idea as long as his youthful exuberance to get into the backfield is constrained a bit. It may have been that exuberance and a few mis-reads that made Mettelus look bad on a slant.

PSU will score something around 23 points doing everything right, less if penalties and turnovers decrease that number. Hard to say the impact but maybe 6-9 points to settle at the 17-14 point range.

The problem for M is it's offense and this is uniformly advanced from anyone I'm reading as a significant limiting factor for M getting a win in HV. So, I'm going to agree with that and we all know why so, let's not beat a dead horse. M will be lucky to score 10-13 points if drive killing fumbles and the host of errors in the passing game that have occurred in past games occur v. PSU. If everything goes well, M can probably score 17-20.

So, you can see my two scenarios:

The M D holds PSU to 14-17 and everything goes right for M's offense and it scores 17-20.

The PSU offense catches M's D out of position a few times and scores 21 while M's O farts around and scores 10-13, you get the picture.

The O/U on this one is around 45. Take that for what it's worth - a semi rock fight forth coming.

I think there is enough data out there to confidently pick PSU to win but not cover 21-13 or 24-16 - closer to O/U but under.

[hack]

I think as much as it's tempting to consider game-specific factors, the bottom line is that Michigan wins at home unless it's OSU, and loses on the road whenever it faces a competent team. That's how it'll play out this year too. This season is going to end up with wins at home except for OSU, and losses on the road except for Maryland. 3-3 the rest of the way, finishing 8-4.

[WingsFan]

Agree, there is always a first. Not this game, that night time white out crowd is worth 10 points alone.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Can't disagree - I think Maryland, however, is a loss because ..... road game and even though that program is a mess they will rise v. M. BT coaches and players are enjoying humiliating JH/M and using both as punching bags. 7-5 is the ceiling, with toss-up losses to MSU and IU precipitating a floor of 5-7.

[Hannibal]

8-4 is the hard ceiling. 6-6 seems like a pretty hard floor with losses to Indiana, MSU, and Maryland seeming unlikely to all happen. I actually think that MSU is a 50/50 game, which says a lot more about my opinion of Dantonio's current state than it does about UM.

[maxreturn]

My 2 cents...

It will be a low scoring, butt ugly 1st half with our boys up by 3 or so. The fact that UM is ahead will give Harbaugh the confidence to employ his infamous 3rd quarter, play it safe strategy. PSU will make better adjustments on both offense and defense and scores 21 - 28 second half points. Final score 31 - 10.

[lineygoblue]

8-4 is the hard ceiling. 6-6 seems like a pretty hard floor with losses to Indiana, MSU, and Maryland seeming unlikely to all happen. I actually think that MSU is a 50/50 game, which says a lot more about my opinion of Dantonio's current state than it does about UM.

This is pretty much the same way I see it. Nine wins isn't happening. 8 is do-able but I don't think the bottom will drop out all the way to 5-7. I think they'll find a way to beat at least 2 of the 3 among Maryland, MSU and Indiana. They'd have to beat all 3 to get to 8 wins. To get to 9 wins, they'd need all three of those plus a win against ND, OSU or PSU. Not happening.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Well, I'd like to think you two are correct. After all, per Harbaugh the offense is on track. But the numbers don't support his assertion if you ask, in comparison to whom or what. Here are the OFEI (per possession scoring advantage a team's offense would be expected to have on a neutral field against an average defense) ranks for M's remaining games:

osu, #4
PSU, #18
ND, #19
IU, #26
MSU, #53
M, #68
Maryland, #83

Sure, fancy stats and all that but by mid season, these numbers become pretty accurate predictors of outcomes. So, I'll give you Maryland as a win and a floor of 6-6. The spread between M's OFEI and that of IU, ND, PSU and osu is so large that on a purely objective basis those 4 are games are M losses, MSU could be called a toss-up. 7-5 then is the ceiling.

I've linked the entire FEI stats. It's worth examining all of them because they pretty much reveal what a steaming pile of shit M's offense is and who cares what the causes of that are. This is by-far, M's worst offense in the Harbaugh era excluding the forgivable fiasco of the JOK QB era when Speight went down:

2015, # 25
2016, # 22
2017, # 90
2018, # 17

M went 8-5 in 2017 and got embarrassingly whipped by Usc in the Outback Bowl, 26-19. I was there and that game, played in cold windy and rainy weather, had a similar feel to it of the bowl games I attended during the RR era - nobody gave a shit from the coaches to the players. Reminds of the Harbaugh team of 2018 that lost to UF in the Chick-Filet Bowl.

This is the sad state of M football and what it has become over the last 15 years. That's a long time in the wilderness of CFB and it's no wonder avid fans are somewhat disinterested and, like me, have become resigned to the view that 9-3 is a great season and 8-4 or even 7-5 are OK. Michigan, with a proud history of winning championships - or, at least, James Earl Jones announces that it is at the start of every M football game - has become a steady state football team like Iowa under Ferentz/Frye or Wisconsin under Alvarez. OK to Good on the national scene and within the BT conference but not championship caliber.

https://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/feioff/2019

[AlabamAlum]

.

[iam416]

I weep for Coach Franklin. Gonna get Sandusky'd.

[lineygoblue]

Even the very best double reverse hex voodoo will not work this week. Reality strikes on Saturday in HV and its not going to go well for Michigan.

Take PSU to cover, and make some money.