Michigan 31, University of Washington 10 - Post Game Discussion

[THE_WIZARD_]

Montana beating Washington is no suprise. A grizzly bear could tear apart a husky with ease.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Wiz, I can still buy discount air tickets for, choose one, Kabul or anywhere in Syria. Free shuttle service is being offered in this exclusive package from your residence in Nebraska to the nearest airport although i realize this may be upwards of 200 miles away.

Several posters here have already contacted me regarding my previous and similar offer to kidnap you and get you on board these flights.

Waiting.

[AlabamAlum]

The thing is, Jeff, Kabul is a step up from most of Nebraska. He would just go, get a nice tan, mow down poppy fields and plant corn before trying to teach the locals about his culinary masterpiece of frozen wings slathered in Kraft BBQ sauce.

[iam416]

FTR, Wiz is correct re Grizzly vs. Huskie. However, a Huskie would likely give a Tiger all it can handle.

[THE_WIZARD_]

idiots

[Hannibal]

UDub wins easily. I'm thinking something in the 37-20 range.

[lineygoblue]

I think I like Michigan's chances now vs Washington, given the Huskies failure vs Montana. But again, maybe this was just a good Husky team pulling a Michigan v App State. So, I'd still temper any huge optimism here.

I'll reluctantly give Michigan about a 7 point favorite here, but for these reasons only: First, I think the night game atmosphere will draw a few more butts in seats. Second, the extra butts in seats will be there because Michigan didn't fritter away a winnable game vs WMU. So, Michigan should have a large supportive crowd. That will help.

I'm still concerned about the first time McNamara has to face a stout defense. I think the Huskies will bring that. Montana didn't exactly hammer the Huskies. They pulled a Michigan v Army on them.

And, Washington will bring a better running game than WMU brought.

I\m not buying 'new and improved Michigan' yet. Too soon, and likely unwarranted.

And Bell is out for the season. One of only a hand full of guys on the team that opponents really would be concerned about, and he's finished. Why would the news be any different?

[THE_WIZARD_]

STFU

[Jeff Buchanan]

Something I liked about M's run game was tempo. A lot of no huddle, keep the D from subbing players. Took a toll on WMU D and advantaged M's offense.

That seems new as M's past offenses were ponderously slow.

Against WMU, M still ran only 60 plays......17 pass, 43 run! But O was explosive at 9.4 ypp and had 0.75 points per play. Anything over 0.5 is a very efficient offense...... or a shifty D giving them away.

No assurance that M can be that efficient with a nearly 75/25 run/pass split v.Udub. Loss of Bell's big play capability and experience will be felt. That contributed to M's explosiveness. At the same time Corm, Haskins and Edward's were getting 7.4, 5.7 and 4.3 ypc. Corum was particularly explosive.

The right mix of run/pass could cause problems for Udub given the execution we saw Saturday. Pretty decent. We've seen this before, though. M easily wins an opener, everyone gets excited then JH follows up with a stinker. The makings of a repeat of that scenario are there.

[Jeff Buchanan]

From Linesman in another thread:

Still no top 25 for Michigan.

Good.

Perhaps you might also like ESPN's FPI? M moved up 14 spots and is at #14, Washington moved down 28 and is at #49.

https://www.espn.com/college-football/fpi

Admittedly, when I was doing fancy stats heavily 2y ago, FPI had it's limitations. Predicted v actual outcomes were too frequently wrong on M games in the Harbuagh era. There's more to that statement that might deserve attention at a future point (expectations, blue bloodedness seem to influence "tweaked" FPI rankings. That may have diminished somewhat).

Sagrin has it's too but I like it better than FPI (M is #17, Washington comes in at #38.) It's not pay walled. Some of the other fancy stats are. I'm not paying for that ..... yet.

There are two ways to look at how you might predict a win or place a bet using Sagrin:

(1) Compare all time results + 3 points for the home team (takes into account past performance by Sagrin's metrics (there are a ton of them that compute results)

Looks like this: M = 88.5 + 3 points = 91.5. Washington = 75.4. 91.5 - 75.4 = 16.1 win margin for M. This doesn't pass my sniff test. Discard.

(2) Compare only recent results + 3 points for home team.

Looks like this: M = 73.9 + 3 = 76.9. Washington = 71.07. 76.9 - 71.07 = 5.2 win margin for M. Ths sounds better. I'll take it ....... and stand by for it to be way wrong.

Don't ask me how Sagrin computes his rankings (results column). I don't think he has ever made that public although I've seen some of the things that make it up.

http://sagarin.com/sports/cfsend.htm#Predictions_with_Totals

Now, we all know fancy stats are not that reliable. Both Talent and Alabamalum will tell you that flat out. It's hard to reduce a CFB game to complete objective analysis. There are too many uncontrollable variables in a game that involves a sphere shaped ball. But, by god, this is fun and beats the shit out of talking about anything else here.

Finally, what did M need to claw it's way back to respectability in 2021? Good QB play. Cade McNmara top the list of all QBs for games played in the first week of CFP (93). C.J.Stroud sqeeks in to the bottom 18 (his number is locked - I'm not paying for it).

Yes, yes, Talent, you'll save this bit of light smack and throw it back to me after OSU continues it's merciless wood-shed taking, ass-fucking of M in November.That's fine. Give my probably very short minute of optimism that will likely be stomped out on Saturday night as M meets a worthy opponent that is angry.

[AlabamAlum]

Jeff,

I’m not anti-fancy stats. Not at all. But they need to be taken in context and the realization that it is just a data point in a game that eludes mathematical absolutism needs to be embraced. That said, they give a vignette into the relative abilities of a team.

[lineygoblue]

I just don't want it to be considered a 'major upset' if U Dub drills Michigan.

We're one regular season game removed from 2-4. It was about to be 2-7.

I'm just trying to keep everything in perspective.

[THE_WIZARD_]

sandbaggus talentlikus

[iam416]

M 41; W 10

[AlabamAlum]

I think M will be decent this year. 9-3 or something close. They’ll dispatch Washington with relative ease. 14 points or so.