The Rest of College Football

[Dr. Strangelove]

Memphis has paused all football activities after 20 people test positive and another 20 are in quarantine. This puts next week's game against Houston into question. I saw one article blaming a 'party bus' some players used after their win against Arkansas State, but one player pushed back on Twitter claiming there was no party and Arkansas State's team is to blame.

https://www.cbssports.com/college-football/news/memphis-pauses-football-activities-and-game-vs-houston-in-question-after-covid-19-outbreak/

[AlabamAlum]

Not optimal.

[crashcourse]

kstate supposed to play arkansas state tommorrow

[Dr. Strangelove]

Virginia/Virginia Tech which was supposed to play next week now canceled too. VT isn't saying much but they're the reason the game is off. NC State and Virginia Tech were supposed to play today but that game also got canceled because of concerns in Raleigh.

https://roanoke.com/sports/college/va_tech/virginia-tech-postpones-game-against-virginia-puts-football-practice-on-pause/article_3a2524e4-f4f7-11ea-9b66-cb9c89864172.html

[Jeff Buchanan]

Virginia/Virginia Tech which was supposed to play next week now canceled too. VT isn't saying much but they're the reason the game is off. NC State and Virginia Tech were supposed to play today but that game also got canceled because of concerns in Raleigh.

The linked article describes or at least implies what data was used to make the decision not to play. Blacksburg's positivity rate for new cases yesterday was just under 16% and over the last 5 days, rising (see R(t) below). Montgomery County also put in-person learning on hold for grades K-12 after the second day of schools being open.

VIrginia's overall R(t) is 1.13 and when I look at Montgomery Co.'s case numbers by day this week, they are rising. If you're a public health official this data supports, by definition, the presence of community spread. But, as we've all come to some level of agreement here, this shouldn't be allowed to be the only data that shapes PH policy. It looks like it is. Age stratification should be utilized as a measure of risk in measuring soft and hard costs of any mitigation measures but, it appears in this case, it's not, nor is any other data being used. It's unfortunately all about new case numbers and positivity rates.

Putting those data points into context from VA's PH Dashboard, over the last 30d, there have been 2 hospitalizations/100K in Montgomery Co and the 7d hospitalization rate is 0.3. 30% of all cases in Montgomery Co. are in the 10-24 yo age group - the least likely to have serious symptoms. Around 10% are in the 60 and older age groups - higher risk. IOW, the disease burden when spread over all age groups is nil.

Look, I get it. PH policy is being driven by fear, politics and liability concerns. The corner hasn't been turned and I doubt it will be. In FL, for example, Desantis, on Friday, cancelled his EO closing bars state wide and authorized them to reopen at 50% capacity on Monday. Well, no surprise, the Mayors of Palm Beach, Broward and Miami-Dade counties, said, nope, not reopening bars down here, this despite positivity rates in those three counties being below 5% - the generally accepeted single data point that indicates control of the virus - for the last 14 days. The 4 other metrics I watch are also downward trending. Disease burden? Again, nil.

Officials everywhere absolutely do not want to own the public firestorm, fanned by the media, that any uptick in new case numbers will be wrongly interpreted as "dire." That characterization being offered without any data driven reasons, such as increasing disease burden on the community. What happens next is the imposition of unreasonable and costly steps back from re-opening. Crazy.

I think a case can be made that allowing community spread, and the numbers suggest it is spreading in Blacksburg, threatens at risk populations and has the potential of seriously sickening otherwise completely healthy folks. But that risk, which by any measure is extremely low and can be largely mitigated, is not being factored in to the toll these continued sledge hammer mitigation measures are taking. Sure, maybe football isn't that big a deal people will argue. Fuck that. It is. It's sports, it's American culture (see our discussion on that). Thinking this way and accepting it's OK to not play football just opens the door for all sorts of other stupid new restrictions and the continuation of currently unnecessary ones.

[Mike]

Watching Notre Dame play with 15,000+ fans in attendance makes me feel like I’m actually experiencing college football. I wish they’d share their secret with the Big Ten. At least I feel safe knowing the Michigan - Indiana border blocks coronavirus.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Iowa State sure laid an egg

[Jeff Buchanan]

........I wish they’d share their secret with the Big Ten. At least I feel safe knowing the Michigan - Indiana border blocks coronavirus.

Heh ....... I hope Kevin Warren is wiggling in his seat as he watches Swarbrick knockdown thousands of dollars for the Irish athletic programs with the NBC broadcast.

If talent is watching he has to be fuming. Absolutely fuming.

[Cody_Russell]

There sure is a lot of fans in some of these stadiums.

Iowa State sure laid an egg

and Kansas State.
Both teams have experienced QBs... Iowa State with Brock Purdy and Kansas State with Skylar Thompson.

Not good for Big 12.

[AlabamAlum]

And Van Nostrum weeps.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Sun Belt > Big12

[Jeff Buchanan]

I couldn't locate a good free link to the complete and detailed story that I read this morning in my paywalled Sun Sentinel. FAU has had to cancel their scheduled game today against Georgia Southern due to players and staff testing positive earlier in the week with additional positives found on Thursday. The reasons for the cancellation involves established conference COVID related requirements on roster depth and COVID test positivity rates. The figures weren't in the article. The Houston-Baylor game was also postponed for COVID related reasons.

I think this sort of thing portends the same kinds of problems for Big10 games who, as far as I can tell, have more rigid COVID related requirements to practice/play that probably exceed those in the southern state conferences.

[Hannibal]

I'm actually going to be dusting off my DVR this weekend for college football for the first time.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Well you won't be watching Notre Dame. Football suspended after 9 test positive. Might be able to play Wake next week if there's no more positives.

[Mike]

This is why the Big Ten should be starting in the next week or two. There's no way they're going to make it 9 straight weeks.