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**Prime2** · October 19, 2015, 07:21 PM

Be afraid, be very afraid.

MGoBlog:

2015 - Michigan loses to good OOC foe Utah

1969 - Michigan loses to good OOC foe #9 Missouri

2015 - Michigan loses to Michigan State

1969 - Michigan loses to Michigan State

2015 - Michigan record vs B1G rivals - (strong case for possible sweep through OSU)

1969 - Michigan sweeps everyone through OSU

2015 - Michigan scheduled to play (currently) #1 OSU

1969 - Michigan upsets #1 OSU

1969 was the first year of Bo Schembechler at Michigan

2015 is the ifrst year of Jim Harbaugh at Michigan

3-point stance: Michigan might like to repeat history

http://espn.go.com/blog/ncfnation/post/_/id/118307/3-point-stance-michigan-might-like-to-repeat-history

Michigan fans no doubt are still stinging from Saturday's loss to Michigan State, but we've found a potential source of optimism.

**Cody_Russell** · October 19, 2015, 07:27 PM

Very realistic shot of that happening.

Michigan won't lose to Minnesota, Rutgers, IU.... Penn St? I'd pick Michigan, but it could be close.
Ohio State being 11-0? Sure, vs MSU is a game to consider, but I'd pick OSU.

Michigan hasn't beaten Ohio State since I've watched (2004), ignoring that 2010 victory that kind of doesn't count. Ohio State went 6-7 that year, even losing to Purdue.
Michigan is due for a win vs Ohio State... Then again, I've been saying that for Detroit Lions @ GB Packers games for a while.

**Mike** · October 19, 2015, 07:53 PM

Originally posted by iam416 View Post

Also depends on how the games go. OSU wins a close one against MSU and gets blown out by M then who knows.

Not if MSU has 2 losses, UM and OSU are both 7-1, and Michigan beats OSU.

**iam416** · October 19, 2015, 07:54 PM

Well, yeah. I was talking about the 7-1 3-way tie.

In any event, it doesn't look for OSU.

**Mike** · October 19, 2015, 07:57 PM

Oh, OSU wins that scenario hands down. Undefeated Sparty is #7. Any loss is gonna drop them to the bottom of the one-loss heap.

**Prime2** · October 19, 2015, 08:34 PM

No team is without a few warts all that matters now is beating OSU and I know the best coach in CFB knows it. Keep Rudock protected and healthy enough.

The last 7 years were particularly miserable as our QBs were so beat to shit covering for incompetence and shitty coaching. Harbaugh is going to bring it and use the momentum to launch his title run next season.

**WM Wolverine** · October 19, 2015, 08:36 PM

I like M's chances vs OSU if its Cardale.

**iam416** · October 19, 2015, 08:41 PM

Yuck

Prime:

Huzzah! Welcome back!

**Jeff Buchanan** · October 20, 2015, 08:12 PM

Ok, I couldn't do the math but this guy does.

Here's the way M wins the East Championship. There's a 41% probability that M does its part to make it happen. The buckeyes and Huskers have to do there's, beating MSU to give them two conference losses.

I can't find any holes in this. Anyone?

Adv. Stats Win Probabilities Rehash, Week 7 Results | mgoblog

http://mgoblog.com/diaries/adv-stats-win-probabilities-rehash-week-7-results

After the ClusterPunt debacle with MSU on Saturday, I continue to be in a state of suspended disbelief regarding UM's ranking at #2 as per the S&P+ composite numbers. What's also interesting to note, beside the smattering of teams with 2 and 3 losses in the top 25, is that the upper echelon which U-M shares with Clemson, is separated by about 2.5 points from the next level shared by Alabama & Baylor. The total separation across the top 10 is about one TD, and 2 TD's across the top 25. Along those lines, Bill Connelly has once again updated the Adv. Stats Profile for Michigan, which of course features a win probability for each of the remaining games. So given that, here's an updated look at the Total Wins Probability distribution: click to embiggen --^ Mr. Obvious: "WTF! Where's the bell-shaped curve?" Mr. Smarty-pants: "Dude, it's a Poisson Binomial random process. Take a stats class." Bill Connelly's model continues to be stoked on that high-octane MaizenBrew Cool-Aid. I'd suspected that UM's statistical profile is some sort of outlier and some regression toward the mean might be anticipated after future games - especially after a loss that saw the defense gouged by Connor Cook, but trying to noodle thing through, the defense allowed only 21 points to MSU's top 40 offense, which is still much better than average, and that gets effectively averaged with the other 6 games. That said, it would seem that U-M's defense is well-established at the so-called "elite" level, and it will take significant and protracted poor performance to revert from that. Same principal would also apply to the offense, I think. Pretty well established at the top 50-ish range. Oh, and here are the individual game numbers that went into it: Win Opponent Probability ---------------+------------ at Minnesota 87% Rutgers 98% at Indiana 88% at Penn State 76% Ohio State 71% The likelihood of beating OSU has declined from 82% last week to 71% now. Sound familiar? OSU once again is taking half a season to remember how to play football while practicing with tomato cans, but will probably have things in order by the time Sparty comes to town, which is good for U-M, because U-M needs OSU to be undefeated when they roll into Ann Arbor. Mr. Obvious: "That means I'll have to pull for OSU. Maybe I'll just take the Missus out for brunch at the Museum that day." "The enemy of my enemy is my friend." - Sanskrit proverb, ~400 B.C. So just to get a complete picture of how all of these probabilities impact conference standings and prospects for U-M to win a B1G Championship, here you go: B1G East B1G Overall W L W L Michigan* 7 1 10 2 Ohio State 7 1 11 1 Michigan State 6 2 10 2 Penn State 5 3 8 4 Rutgers* 2 6 5 7 Indiana 2 6 6 6 Maryland 0 8 2 10 B1G West B1G Overall W L W L Iowa 8 0 12 0 Wisconsin 6 2 9 3 Illinois* 5 3 8 4 Nebraska 5 3 7 5 Northwestern 2 6 6 6 Minnesota 1 7 4 8 Purdue 0 8 1 11 * head-to-head tie break winner Given that U-M is expected to win each of its remaining games, including OSU, and MSU is also expected to lose to OSU and at Nebraska, that would make U-M the B1G East champion. U-M would also be favored to beat Iowa in that neutral site matchup.

**WM Wolverine** · October 20, 2015, 11:13 PM

M wins B1G East if Sparty loses twice and M wins out; two pretty big ifs... Hopefully M faces Cardale not JTB.

**lineygoblue** · October 21, 2015, 04:12 AM

If we need Sparty to lose twice, then we need Sparty to become "Sparty" again.

**iam416** · October 21, 2015, 07:21 AM

They haven't been "Sparty" for quite some time.

Re the Advanced Stats...very surprised M is only 71% to beat Ohio State. That only makes them a -7 favorite. Would have had it closer to 95% and -17.

**THE_WIZARD_** · October 21, 2015, 09:53 AM

Sandbaggus Talentgayous

**Jeff Buchanan** · October 21, 2015, 10:39 AM

Originally posted by iam416 View Post

They haven't been "Sparty" for quite some time........

True that.

Aside from the sometimes assholeishness of Dantonio, he is a great coach. Within a season or two of his arrival, he had his team competing in the BT and then on top of it with only osu standing in his way of domination.

I rather like it that there will be 4 teams really competing in the East going forward. I'd like to see the West teams more competitive on the national scene but I think there's going to need to be some rebalancing of the divisions to make that happen. You've got three proven great coaches at M, MSU and osu and Franklin maybe a step below those three. Seems like they all can recruit and develop players nationally and regionally.

I really don't think Iowa's current 2015 run is sustainable with Ferentz - he is the Mark Richt of the Big Ten and maybe a step below him because Iowa and Ferentz recruiting grounds. The strength of Riely at Neb is still TBD and I'm not at all sure about Chryst at Wisky. Recruiting is tough at both of these places, less so at Neb.

**froot loops** · October 21, 2015, 10:48 AM

I'm still not sold on Franklin.

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