Michigan 21, MSU 7

[UMStan White]

"I did at the beginning of this thread:"

Yeah but your opinion don't count for shit. Never has, never will.

[AlabamAlum]

M on M crime? Stop the violence.

[Rocky Bleier]

"I did at the beginning of this thread:"

Yeah but your opinion don't count for shit. Never has, never will.

Still mad because I criticized your fellatio ability? You need to accept the truth that all gay guys are not good at it. Your dress was cute, though.

[UMStan White]

OOOH Rocky but you told me I was the best!!!! Why do you say such hurtful things?

[THE_WIZARD_]

Get a fucking room.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Here's an update with real data from my post up thread after I watched most of MSU's offensive plays v. PSU:

This is the formations that MSU used (Left to Right - Gun, Pistol, ACE/BONE, I-Form):

73%

3%

14%

9%

No surprise here.

Dantonio runs a a Power Hybrid but he is a bit more pass heavy and reliant on Lewerke's legs than M. He adds a smattering of RPO (Pass, PA, RPO, Run):

52%

7%

5%

37%

I thought this run down from Mgo is pretty good, esp. the part on they're forced to be a QB's legs offense with Lewerke and that OL situation..........

Basketball on Grass or MANBALL? They're Manball with more zone than they'd prefer. I think they would like to be a base power team but they're forced to be a QB's legs offense with Lewerke and that OL situation, so the result ends up accidentally Borgesian. That's not to say they just throw whatever at the wall and work under a mandate. They're better at power when they can do that. What they can't do at all is run outside, however, and they get in so many long 2nd downs that a consistent 4 yards isn't very worthwhile anymore. So they have packages:

• Power Package (17 plays): 9 powers, 5 pitch sweeps, 2 counter treys and a trap
• Zone Read Package (16 plays): 8 zone reads, 4 split zones, 4 inverted veers
• RPO/IZ Package (15 plays): 7 inside zones, 3 lead zones, RPOs are either bubble or fake bubble slant paired with IZ
• QB Run Game (9 plays): 6 speed options, 3 QB lead zones
• Jet Package (7 plays): 5 jet sweeps, 1 fake then IZ, 1 that converted into an inverted veer

Removing a 75-yard jet sweep in clock kill time, the QB run game was the only effective part at 4.7 YPC. Power got 3.9 YPC, zone reads 3.6, and the rest were around 2 YPC.

This is another comment that reflects everything we want to acknowledge, or not, about Dantonio:

Zook Factor: Despite a dodgy offense and a defense that loves a good goal post shadow, Dantonio seems to possess a modern attitude toward punting. Not because he sees the statistical advantage of playing for 4th and short, but because he understands, intuitively, the damage to the soul inflicted by a 4th down conversion.

This season, and probably more seasons than Michigan fans want to acknowledge, is how MSU wins games when they can't do it playing "normal" football. It is a Dantonio trademark and makes me want to smash his face. It makes me mad that (1) he gets away with it, and (2) He's a damn good ball coach, the best when he faces Michigan at home or away.

At the end of the Mgo Preview of the MSU Offense are three key paragraphs that sum up the dangers of facing Mark Dantonio when you are Michigan.

Michigan State's secret weapon all of these years has been paying close attention to high-leverage situations. Their playbook is, well, Spartan, for the most part, but every game they have a few interesting wrinkles off of some random coaching tree that they'll pop out for an important down, or use to press their advantage after a random event comes up their way.

The challenge of facing this team, on the road, in a rivalry game, is you can't let things get to you. There's a version of his Penn State game where Lewerke throws 8 picks. There's also a version of this game where a PSU DT whose knees were just chopped on 3rd down of a successful goal line stand doesn't retaliate by punching a guy in the facemask. There's one where a phantom call on another PSU DT doesn't flip a late stop on 3rd and long and MSU doesn't get a touchdown with two long pass plays right after. The thing is they're saving those big plays for that moment, and in a random-ass football game, that moment is bound to come.But when this State offense senses opportunity they are still quite capable of bunching together a handful of good plays. Nobody wants another Northwestern game, especially in the rain.

The boldened sentences are why I hate MSU and get all BPONE about this game. A loss to Sparty is often written off as a shit happens outcome. Like the stupid punt, blocked, run back for the winning TD as time expires. It's not. It is mark Dantonio doing what he does best - keep the game close advantage the team in hihg leverage situations when they randomly occur. If I'm in Jim Harbaugh's shoes, I'm going to do EVERYTHING possible to avoid the impact of randomeness; EVERTHING I can to deny Dantonio the high leverage situations he gets a woody over. M is completely capable of clubbing MSU with good football and sound coaching not some random shit that Franklin let happen in HV last weekend that led to MSU beating PSU on the last play of the game. Classic Dantonio. Fuck that.

[froot loops]

The silly Zook factor is interesting in that is misses the largest point, they don't have a punter. This mythology on Dantonio is humorous and all but I don't think its quite accurate. The punters they are forced to run out there weren't even on the roster in August. Its a problem.

[Tom W]

The boldened sentences are why I hate MSU and get all BPONE about this game. A loss to Sparty is often written off as a shit happens outcome. Like the stupid punt, blocked, run back for the winning TD as time expires. It's not. It is mark Dantonio doing what he does best - keep the game close advantage the team in hihg leverage situations when they randomly occur. If I'm in Jim Harbaugh's shoes, I'm going to do EVERYTHING possible to avoid the impact of randomeness; EVERTHING I can to deny Dantonio the high leverage situations he gets a woody over. M is completely capable of clubbing MSU with good football and sound coaching not some random shit that Franklin let happen in HV last weekend that led to MSU beating PSU on the last play of the game. Classic Dantonio. Fuck that.

Well yes, that's the biggest problem with facing Dantonio. But, a secondary problem is that Michigan always tries to bring that "good football and sound coaching" into this game. This gives a clear path for Dantonio to set up his little booby traps. For once, it would be nice to see Harbaugh spring a few surprises- or at least exploit some wrinkles that the officials allow- anything to wipe that constipated Oberon smirk off of Dantonio's face.

[Kapture1]

The boldened sentences are why I hate MSU and get all BPONE about this game. A loss to Sparty is often written off as a shit happens outcome. Like the stupid punt, blocked, run back for the winning TD as time expires. It's not. It is mark Dantonio doing what he does best - keep the game close advantage the team in hihg leverage situations when they randomly occur. If I'm in Jim Harbaugh's shoes, I'm going to do EVERYTHING possible to avoid the impact of randomeness; EVERTHING I can to deny Dantonio the high leverage situations he gets a woody over. M is completely capable of clubbing MSU with good football and sound coaching not some random shit that Franklin let happen in HV last weekend that led to MSU beating PSU on the last play of the game. Classic Dantonio. Fuck that.

I can tell you that the strategy of keeping the game close has lost the Spartans some games they had no business losing, and that type of football sucks from a fans point of view. I hate watching their games. It's all well and good when they play at the level of a better team, but they do the same against weaker teams.


I am not looking forward to Saturday. Michigan will outplay State for an entire game, but State will be in the game in the second half of the 4th qtr. and perhaps winning a game they had no business winning. BTW I assume Michigan wins Saturday to my dismay, but I wouldn't bet money either direction this week. State has yet to play a good game this season, even against Penn State. I don't think we see them playing to their potential this week either.

[Tslisher]

My Prediction:

A tight game until late in the 3rd quarter as rain falls and msu inexplicably gets 2-3 goofball turnovers which is all that prevents Michigan from blowing this one out. In the fourth quarter with msu driving for what might be the game winning score, satan himself rips his way out of the ground behind the msu bench, stalks over to Dantonio and bellows.... "FINALLY.... YOU BOTCHED YOUR LAST GOAT SACRIFICE, YOUR SOUL IS NOW MINE! and drags a screaming Dantonio down to the pit of hell.

Michigan gets a stop and whomever fills in as the backup coach tries a famous faked punt call on 4th and 2 which is fumbled, scooped and scored. Michigan's D stops a desperation drive after 5 plays and Michigan grinds out 30 yards on the ground to run out the clock. M27 - MSU20.

[Detroit Dan]

My Prediction:

A tight game until late in the 3rd quarter as rain falls and msu inexplicably gets 2-3 goofball turnovers which is all that prevents Michigan from blowing this one out. In the fourth quarter with msu driving for what might be the game winning score, satan himself rips his way out of the ground behind the msu bench, stalks over to Dantonio and bellows.... "FINALLY.... YOU BOTCHED YOUR LAST GOAT SACRIFICE, YOUR SOUL IS NOW MINE! and drags a screaming Dantonio down to the pit of hell.

Michigan gets a stop and whomever fills in as the backup coach tries a famous faked punt call on 4th and 2 which is fumbled, scooped and scored. Michigan's D stops a desperation drive after 5 plays and Michigan grinds out 30 yards on the ground to run out the clock. M27 - MSU20.

Need a little more detail to envision this (c;

[WM Wolverine]

M fans are way too overconfident, as Sparty's defense is really good. M's offense has had problems sustaining drives against much worse defenses. I'm expecting a close game decided by a few big plays and/or turnovers.

M should win, but it's far from a given, given the history of this series and Sparty always playing their best game of the season today.

[Hannibal]

24-17 MSU. They want it more. Every. Fucking. Year. It's frustrating watching the obvious difference in preparation \and motivation on a yearly basis. They are more fired up. They hit harder. I have had this pegged as a loss since the middle of last year and nothing that I have seen has changed my mind. I'm so sick of this shit. I might just find family shit to do this afternoon instead of watching it. Our garage needs rearranging so maybe I'll do that.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Didn't you call the Wisconsin game a loss? You're right more than you're wrong but you were stupendously wrong on the Wisconsin game.

Hope the trend continues.

[Jeff Buchanan]

There's a pre-game piece that shows up at mgo called Punt/Counter Punt. It's usually entertaining. This edition did a good job of showing that the voodoo hex on M over the last 10 games isn't a voodoo Hex at all. The better team won and the author does a good job of supporting that assertion.

I don't think there is any question that M is the better football team and is playing better football than MSU. This is so because Fancy Stats declare it as such and if you don't like those, don't put much stock in them, so does any observer's eyeball test.

So, screw the VooDoo hex shit, screw the Dantonio mystique. M is going to win this game.

KO weather is going to be cold, windy and dry. We might make it well into the last quarter before any precip shows up. A front went through EL early this morning without much fanfare other than a drop in temps and a some wind that picks up in the late morning behind it and in front of another front (or trough) that will push through mid-afternoon. It's this one that pipes the wind up a bit after 2pm and brings some flurries or what's called graupel (snow flakes with frozen water on them) after 3p.

I don't think the weather is going to be a big factor for M as, if I have this right, M will limit the deep ball preferring to throw short into the typical soft zone MSU's D presents to most opponents. They'll move the chins this way, hopefully on long, clock consuming drives that makes this game as short as possible. I'd rather see M win this game 25-11 and get the hell out of EL than 30 - whatever to 20 - whatever.