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ohio state at Michigan, Saturday, 11/30/19, Noon EST, FOX/Fox Video

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  • I guess I'll wait a day or two till all of you are rational and objective before giving my analysis of this game. In short, when playing superior talent you are going to make more mistakes and there were tons. M needed to play near flawless and needed the Buckeyes to make some mistakes. Buckeyes only had the one big mistake.

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    • Thought Don Brown sold out too much and too often to stop Fields as a runner (not a terrible decision) which left M exposed through the air early. Linebacker, safety play was brutal. Over pursuit, two guys in a gap, safeties late to cover their zone... Ryan Day playing with pocket aces/two Heisman candidates made his job easy. Quarterback that can run, throw, and has a Heisman running back to hand off to is difficult to defend.

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      • Yep, a lot of irrationality out there, WM.

        It's not hard to understand why M got trucked.

        Let's dispense with these memes right away:
        • The football program is broken.
        • Harbaugh, Brown (insert name of M employee) should be fired for incompetence.
        At the micro level It isn't as much about Harbaugh or Brown as it is about the talent gap, execution and error rate between osu and M in this game. I saw a shit ton of costly errors and three of them changed the complexion of the game: Shea's fumble inside the 5, the off-sides penalty that gave osu a first down after a defensive stop and Haskins missing a huge hole where I suspect the play was supposed to go on a late, must make, 4th and 1 giving osu the ball inside M's 30.

        WM has already noted the talent differential between osu and M and for that matter the rest of the BIG and probably 125 of the 130 teams comprising the FBS ..... and this is not to say that osu hasn't managed and positioned its football program well, from top to bottom, to be where it is. You can say the same for Alabama, Clemson and a few other teams that appear regularly in the CFP.

        In this annually defining game, M had to play nearly error free ball to challenge osu. It didn't and for that reason the loss defines the program, the coaches and the players to a degree it probably shouldn't. There are reasons for that:

        At the macro level of CFB, there are issues with it's competitiveness due to league alignment and the apparent concentration of player talent among a handful of schools - the rich get richer argument. That sort of thing happened in the NFL and NHL to a larger extent than in MLB but it happened there too. Arguably the pro leagues addressed those issues with solutions not everyone thinks are good but you can't question how all the pro leagues are more competitive top to bottom than they were a two decades or more ago.

        The NCAA is not strong enough to do anything like the pro leagues did to address competitiveness and the concentration of riches across the board. College presidents don't consider it a problem but I think the coaches see it. Whether or not solutions are at hand is another thing. It's complicated.
        Last edited by Jeff Buchanan; December 1, 2019, 08:17 AM.
        Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time

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        • Shea's fumble was at about the 12 after they ran two straight Shea power sweeps on "and goal" downs that netted negative yards. They were probably kicking a FG there.
          Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
          Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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          • My own two cents, not that it matters is this. HARBAUGH!!!! would have done well against Coach Tressel (by well -- 50/50ish). Coach Tressel was a great program coach but his ceiling was lower than truly elite. He was fortunate to coach against a slowly eroding Carr and RichGOD. M's problem is that OSU hired UFM and he turned that program into an insanely elite recruiting machine (by national standards, but especially by B10 standards). HARBAUGH!!! recruits more like Tressel. He had a real problem in that regard. I think Coach Day is a step up from UFM in terms of schematic approach. It's probably a step down in recruiting only because it almost has to be. But, he's still outrecruiting HARBAUGH!!! and that's a real problem.

            HARBAUGH!!! came to M 8 years too late. If he takes over for Carr he's beating Tressel once or twice and capitalizing, fully, on the transition. But, he didn't.

            The thing that's always concerned me about HARBAUGH!!! is recruiting --- again, not that it's not good, but good won't win the East. I said it when he was hired and I said it when he was taking scores of 3* kids (as did others). I'm now more concerned because I think he wins a lot with his brand and Q factor, and I think he's earning a wholly different one in the eyes of recruits. He's not crazy cat lady or anything like that, but the bloom is off the rose and he's gonna have to earn those recruits.

            Finally, I thought Shea was great yesterday in the first half. I thought everything thing went OSU's way starting with Dobbins dribbling the ball on his way to a 30 yard run. The Shea fumble was something Penn State did TWICE against OSU last week and easily recovered -- and got a first down on one! But the ball Shea dropped was immediately kicked by an OL forward right at Landers. The penalties were stupid on M's part/lucky for OSU. And I think you go for the TD at the end of the half. I was relieved to see them kick.

            The 2nd half was a blood bath. Once OSU got out of their ridiculous 4-4 and pinned their ears back it was trouble for M.
            Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
            Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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              • Remember beating Sparty senseless earlier this month? Gap in talent between us and Sparty is similar to Michigan and Ohio State. That needs fixed in recruiting, those top 100 recruits that are starting at every position on Ohio State are difficult to defend, block, or get separation from.

                Buckeyes, LSU and Bama are just way ahead of everyone else. M is doing okay relative to everyone else.

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                • Despite a persistent talent gap, George Perles, Nick Saban, and even Booby Williams managed to beat us about once every three tries. Despite a massive talent gap, Auburn still sometimes beats Alabama despite Alabama being a juggernaut in the Top 3 in recruiting every single year and packing the NFL draft with high ranked picks. There are dozens of college football rivalries out there where the far less talented team manages to steal one once every three or four tries. Guys who aren't even very good coaches do this. Mark Dantonio beat Urban Meyer twice despite a talent gap that is much larger than the one between OSU and UM now. Jeff Brohm and Kirk Frerentz each blew Meyer off the field once with players from unranked recruiting classes. Jeff Brohm beat Urban Meyer with the refuse left behind by Darrell Hazell. It happens every once in a blue moon when your coach doesn't suck. Harbaugh isn't 0-5 (with 3 of those 5 losses being complete assrapes) because being 1-4 is an unreasonable expectation. He is 0-5 because he sucks. When it comes to The Game he makes John Cooper look like a fucking genius. Cooper never lost by more than 12 at home to UM and he finally got his first win on his 7th try. I guarantee you Harbaugh won't have win #1 by his 7th try (if he gets to #7 which, hopefully, he won't).
                  Last edited by Hannibal; December 1, 2019, 10:45 AM.

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                  • Hanni,, I think you're wrong about JH. Look, after losses like this, the knives come out not unexpectedly. You'd fit right in with idiots calling in to WTKA this morning. Too emotional.

                    Think about the 4 best teams in the SEC. They all have one thing in common: strong DLs that can create havoc and pressure the QB with 4 dudes. That's why they can "steal" wins.

                    M? Look at the disaster that was the 2017 DL recruiting class. If you want to identify a fundamental cause for osu's prolific offense v. M it's the lack of elite talent and athleticism of M's DL v. an elite QB, an elite RB and elite receivers. It's not "Harbaugh sucks."

                    talent's comment about Harbaugh's ability to recruit elite talent is correct but I'm not sure replacing him for that deficiency is going to somehow elevate M to elite status. I think the better approach is to find a better recruiter who can connect with the talent M needs to steal that win or two. Throwing out the baby with the bathwater argument applies.
                    Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time

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                    • I think the talent gap argument is a good one, but then again, Hanni makes a good point as well.

                      In a real, honest-to-goodness rivalry, both teams know that the opponent is good enough to beat them. That's why its a rivalry, because the opponent is dangerous, and is a threat to your own team having a successful season. Your true rival can ruin your overall team goals for the year.

                      This is not a rivalry anymore. Oh, sure, .. within the borders of Ohio today, they think the "rivalry" is great. They think its the greatest "rivalry" in college sports, because they dominate it.

                      But in real world facts, its not a rivalry anymore. Its just another soft spot on OSU's schedule. Its a soft spot on the schedule where their fans can come to the game, get cheap tickets, and watch their team destroy Michigan in Michigan's own stadium. Its kind of like how Northwestern has become on Michigan's schedule. Michigan fans absolutely take over Ryan Field when the game is played there, and its been that way since 2000. Michigan is no more of a threat to OSU than NW is to Michigan.

                      And its not going to change for at least another 4-5 years. Day already has lined up another Top 5 class in this recruiting cycle, and yesterday's score only pushes that out further.

                      "What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"

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                      • but I'm not sure replacing him for that deficiency is going to somehow elevate M to elite status. I think the better approach is to find a better recruiter who can connect with the talent M needs to steal that win or two.
                        First of all, anyone calling for Harbaugh to be fired today, just because he cannot beat Ohio State, is barking up the wrong tree. Its not happening. Warde Manuel is going to stick with Harbaugh for at least next season, and maybe even further. As long as Harbaugh can win 9-10 games a year, he's absolutely safe. Manuel will not fire him simply for losing to OSU. No way.

                        Secondly, the LAST thing Michigan needs right now is for some yahoo to come along like Minnesota's P J Fleck, selling snake oil, and "guaranteeing" to beat OSU by "rowing the boat" or some other such crap. The last time Michigan tried to get 'innovative' by hiring a HC, we ended up with Rich Rod. Does anyone here really want to return to those days? How about the grand days of Brady Hoke, where he proclaimed that he'd "walk to Michigan from San Diego" to take the Michigan job? Do we want that again, because THAT is EXACTLY what would happen if Harbaugh was fired, and replaced with someone who 'guarantees' they can come in and beat OSU. Is that really the only requirement that we as Michigan fans want from our HC? Just beat OSU? So, you'd be fine with Michigan at 1-11, as long as the "1" was against OSU? .. Come on.

                        The only thing we can hope for is that OSU has some bad recruiting cycles. I have no idea how that can happen. I will say that they had some very good fortune when Fields dropped into their lap. If they would have had to go with another QB on their roster yesterday, the game might have been a bit closer. But then again, maybe he would have had a career day, so who knows?....

                        I'm walking the tightrope now... so I'll shaddup ...
                        "What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"

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                        • Originally posted by Hannibal View Post
                          Despite a persistent talent gap, George Perles, Nick Saban, and even Booby Williams managed to beat us about once every three tries. Despite a massive talent gap, Auburn still sometimes beats Alabama despite Alabama being a juggernaut in the Top 3 in recruiting every single year and packing the NFL draft with high ranked picks. There are dozens of college football rivalries out there where the far less talented team manages to steal one once every three or four tries. Guys who aren't even very good coaches do this. Mark Dantonio beat Urban Meyer twice despite a talent gap that is much larger than the one between OSU and UM now. Jeff Brohm and Kirk Frerentz each blew Meyer off the field once with players from unranked recruiting classes. Jeff Brohm beat Urban Meyer with the refuse left behind by Darrell Hazell. It happens every once in a blue moon when your coach doesn't suck. Harbaugh isn't 0-5 (with 3 of those 5 losses being complete assrapes) because being 1-4 is an unreasonable expectation. He is 0-5 because he sucks. When it comes to The Game he makes John Cooper look like a fucking genius. Cooper never lost by more than 12 at home to UM and he finally got his first win on his 7th try. I guarantee you Harbaugh won't have win #1 by his 7th try (if he gets to #7 which, hopefully, he won't).
                          As paranoid and obsessive as it is that ohio prepares for this game 365 days a year, there's actual merit to designing and building a team to take on your top opponent. It prepares you to handle about 90% of what the other guys can throw at you. Those losses to lesser teams could be pinned on doing things in that 10% range.

                          When you can bring elite talent at every position along with your design, then you get results like we saw yesterday.

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                          • Hanni,, I think you're wrong about JH. Look, after losses like this, the knives come out not unexpectedly. You'd fit right in with idiots calling in to WTKA this morning. Too emotional.

                            That this particular knife has come out is no surprise at all. Hannibal has an unassailable and facts-based point about Auburn, MSU, etc. in those other rivals -- it's true that many teams in rivalry matchups in teams with more talent sometimes still win. That's fact. You countered it by asserting that because PJ Fleck has a slogan he is therefore an automatic return to the RichRod days, which is obviously not a facts-based point. Nor is it an opinion for which you've provided a compelling argument. In this particular case you sound an awful lot like the name-calling hot-takers you seek to stand apart from.

                            That said, I sure don't agree that Harbaugh needs to go. I think that if you're in that camp, you have to ask yourself how you can do better. IMO there aren't going to be many coaches who want to take on the task of beating OSU but not being able to talk about all the things you cannot do that OSU is willing to do in order to field the most talented team. The only gluttons for punishment you'll attract are the well-intended Hoke types who love Ann Arbor and don't mind that our program adheres to wonderful traditions that make actual winning a lot harder. My viewpoint as it stands is that some continuity on the offensive side of the ball would be good, and soon there will be a massive levelling of the playing field when we can pay players. It'll take some creative thinking about how to do that right, but that's an opportunity. I think we're also probably not too far away from some other changes, as TV ratings will fall when it's the same 3-5 teams in the CFP year after year.

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                            • Point of order

                              You countered it by asserting that because PJ Fleck has a slogan he is therefore an automatic return to the RichRod days, which is obviously not a facts-based point.
                              This knife was mine, not Jeff's.
                              "What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"

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                              • Point taken, and apologies for mixing up bits of the two posts. I do think "You'd fit right in with idiots calling in to WTKA" is a phrase that has no place here, even if it were actually earned by the user and the target.

                                Linesman I agree with your overall comments about the rivalry, in that it's not much of one anymore. Not much of one for me either. Right or wrong, it gets a little tiring to hear this debate year after year but with all sides strangely agreeing to ignore the primary factors that make the two football programs difficult to compare. Michigan just isn't willing to do what it takes to play on that field, and if it were, we wouldn't have to see Harbaugh torture himself at press conferences not bringing up that stuff.

                                It'll be interesting to see where Harbaugh goes from here. I think he's got his staff largely right, though it may be worth considering bringing on someone who can recruit Ohio. I think the changes are on him and his approach. OSU hating us more or thinking about the game 365 days a year are not the primary reason this isn't much of a rivalry anymore, but it's very reasonable to think that we could get to the point where MSU has been against us or Auburn against Alabama etc. by adopting that approach.

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