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Navy has fired the Commander of the Theodore Roosevelt for, among other things, "creating a panic" on the ship
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The article below is one of the worst I've read in the Economist. It goes through two different kinds of predictive models - both of them supposedly designed to inform public health policy. To me, it is only interesting to see the two types of models, understand how they work and then realize that the authors think they aren't worth a shit because, surprise, the data going in to them sucks. Nobody knows what kinds of outcomes with respect to the values we've all been following will be for COVID-19. The models become more useful for epidemics that have a history - e.g., seasonal influenza. For COVID-19 they are shit. Too many unknowns that make the mathematical equation that underlie the models having to deal with too many variables. In math, that never works.
Once again, the more I read, the more I know trying to look at the numbers and figure out where all this is headed is nothing more than guess work.
I'm still holding to the view that this is going to be a troublesome virus until a vaccine is widely available or some RX surfaces to render the virus less lethal. I feel optimistic that we can mitigate the impact on public health and on the US economy by restricting movement - to what extent and for how long remains to be see.
To do that, though, is going to take hard, informed, to the extent possible, choices from leadership. It's going to require a solid plan from the federal level giving general guidance to the states to implement based on the situation on the ground in that state and within that state, locally. A gradual loosening of restrictions on movement that are strangling the US's and the world's economies is going to have to happen at some point. When is the question and from my read, it can't be reduced to a certainty with math and models. There's going to be risk - you deal with those risks as they surface.
Here's the link. The modeling is interesting. The author's conclusions aren't at all helpful. I'm out of free articles - the ones that are pay-walled. I can still read most of what's in print from the Economist as they have waived subscriptions for most of their COVID-19 related stuff.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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Yeah we are one of the few hubs to have direct flights to China in the US. If you fly to Europe you are much better off flying out of Toronto or Chicago, but if you are going to China we are your place.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View Post
The hope for Ohio is DeWine moved quickly and the 3 or 4 extra days made a big difference.Comment
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Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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This was in the NYT's Morning brief:
The C.I.A. has warned that China is vastly understating its infections
Well. duh ....... I guess you could conclude that this is Washington's official position on Chinese COVID-19 numbers now: total Bull-Shit. Given that reality, predictive modeling based on past reporting of the course of the disease in China cannot be relied on.
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/04/02/u...b2da6e075b25bfMission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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I posted up thread that one of the things I'm watching is how the various aid programs initiated by the Fed and Congress are being executed on the ground. Obviously, I can't judge things nationally. I can only look locally and in my sphere. I believe how these programs are executed are key to the shape of the recession curves and economic recovery (see my post from the HBR).
Yesterday I posted about UIB - seems hard to access here in FL and I see national news reports that say the same thing. Pretty clear that the surge in applications for UIB wasn't anticipated. Hopefully, this will sort itself out and the application process will ease going forward. While I can observe this calmly, I know for those that have suddenly lost their incomes and can't make payments/pay bills it can be terrifying so, I get the angst. In FL, Governor Desantis has recognized the problem. We'll see.
I bank with PNC and Wells Fargo - huge national banking brands. Both web sites have information pertaining to financial relief. They are pretty complete. While I have no problem finding information, I'm not sure that would be the case for some. I'm hearing it's nearly impossible to call banks and get the information like many who don't use on-line resources. That's going to be a problem for the swath of low wage earners that are going to struggle. Here in FL, there is a lot of food bank activity that's stepping up to provide food. There seems to be plenty of it, lines can be long but it's there. A hopeful circumstance.
The SBA is managing the Pay-Check-Protection Program for businesses - this is the program where businesses can get loans that will be forgiven if they are used to keep employees on the payroll. According to the PNC web site that describes these the SBA has still not issued guidance on how banks are to administer the loan program. That's troubling. OTH, loan programs, for both small business and corporations, seem to be available/accessible through the SBA. PNC says it provides assistance in getting the applications completed and submitted to the SBA. Good sign there. Here's the link to PNC bank if you haven't seen a concise explanation of how all this stuff is supposed to work. How PNC might handle debt relief for customers with PNC issued loans and mortgages from PNC is also at the link.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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To be clear, I don't think any of this is going to help past mid-May. It appears Congress knows and is dealing with this. That's fine but I've seen reports that the current programs are going to cost taxpayers, $60K each to carry the newly authorized debt. This burden is going to fall on my kids and their kids.
This is way beyond my comprehension to understand the implications of this kind of debt on the US economy. I do understand what high government debt loads did to EU members Greece and Italy and it wasn't pretty. Moreover, EU countries like Germany and the Scandinavian countries balked in the past at debt relief for Greece and Italy being carried by their citizens - so much for EU solidarity and it's going to be severely tested in the coming months.
What this means is that a reckoning is coming. I'm not seeing a lot of reports of how governments are preparing for this. While I get the notion that they have to deal now with the public health crisis on their plates, and I agree with this, smart people, I would hope, are considering the long term issues and are formulating and discussing plans. I have read scholarly articles on this and I know governments rely on think tanks for input but I don't here anything official that even smells like awareness or planning.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! timeComment
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I feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it onComment
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Yeah. And remember -- or rather, never forget -- on January 14 they said no human-to-human trransmission and the motherfucking WHO parroted it back as if it were true.Well. duh ....... I guess you could conclude that this is Washington's official position on Chinese COVID-19 numbers now: total Bull-Shit. Given that reality, predictive modeling based on past reporting of the course of the disease in China cannot be relied on.Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.Comment
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Videos show hundreds of his sailors giving Captain Crozier a huge sendoff from the deck of the Theodore Roosevelt. The Navy insists they aren't upset that he shamed them into action; they simply thought he was no longer a capable leader. Sounds like a lot of his own men feel he threw away his career for them.
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He did, but he was damned if he did and damned if he didn't. If he didn't do anything he gets blamed for letting his ship become non operational and then is relieved of his command. If he did say something, he gets relieved for making his bosses look bad. He decided to try to take care of his crew.Originally posted by Dr. Strangelove View PostI feel like I am watching the destruction of our democracy while my neighbors and friends cheer it onComment
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"The problem with quotes on the Internet is that it is sometimes hard to verify their authenticity." -Abraham LincolnComment
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He's the type of leader that men will follow into the jaws of hell for. That's one reason he earned one of the most prestigious jobs in the military - Capt of an aircraft carrier. The Navy is being shortsighted imo. The optics are that the Navy is reacting to embarrassment, not operational readiness concerns.
The first reports all stated that he DID go through his chain of command. It was after his removal from command thta suddenly he didn't go through command. The fact that someone ELSE released the letter to the media is not his failure.Last edited by Ghengis Jon; April 3, 2020, 08:26 AM.“Outside of a dog, a book is a man's best friend. Inside of a dog, it's too dark to read.” - Groucho MarxComment
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That dude is a hero, the "acting" Secretary of Defense is a coward.Comment
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