Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[Dr. Strangelove]

Rep. Doug Collins has also chosen to self-quarantine for a couple of weeks after he was a shown a photo of himself with the person who may have been spreading the disease around CPAC. Collins was just with Trump at the CDC last Friday. The two shook hands...

[froot loops]

The price of oil has cratered 35% in the last week. I've seen no change in price at the pump. Why is it that when oil prices are going up, the price increases at the pump can be measured with a stopwatch and when oil prices are going down, the corresponding price change at the pump is measured with a calendar?

I paid $2.09 today at a place where I paid $2.49 a few weeks ago.

[Ghengis Jon]

I paid $2.09 on 2-29 at Costco. Was $2.06 this morning.

[froot loops]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Saudi Aramco announced overnight that they will increase their production from 9.7M barrels a day in March to 12.3M barrels a day in April

Inside the US more people benefit from cheap oil than are hurt by it, but there are localized regions (North Dakota, West Texas, Appalachia) that will be hurt much more than others. And ironically it'll predominantly be Trump country that gets hurt.

[AlabamAlum]

[froot loops]

[AlabamAlum]

[Dr. Strangelove]

Daniel Plainview was a decent oil man, though a bit of a softy.

[froot loops]

AA - the article didn't say why but it sounds like the story got the DOJ to say this was in error.

[AlabamAlum]

Ahh. Thanks.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Michigan, Missouri, and Mississippi all close at 8 PM tonight. If all 3 get called early then it'll be another very good night for Biden. Even the recent polls for Washington & Idaho show Biden with a narrow lead.

Next week's delegate haul is even bigger and the states are fundamentally even less favorable for Bernie so if he doesn't win Michigan tonight it's hard to see how he gets the nomination. Biden would have to have a stroke during the debate.

[Dr. Strangelove]

Will also add that votes are still being counted in California and the late breakers went Biden by a LOT. Bernie's win there will probably be under 7%...maybe even under 6%. That looked inconceivable 2 weeks ago when Biden was polling in single digits there.

[froot loops]

Nate Silver is saying in the history of polling he can find no shift that is similar. I think once Biden proved he could win decisively in SC, it gave everyone a reason to believe what the campaign was saying and it gave every doubter a reason to get behind him. If you subscribe to the lane theory, the moderate lane is nearly twice as big as the left lane.

[Jeff Buchanan]

Nate Silver is saying in the history of polling he can find no shift that is similar. I think once Biden proved he could win decisively in SC, it gave everyone a reason to believe what the campaign was saying and it gave every doubter a reason to get behind him. If you subscribe to the lane theory, the moderate lane is nearly twice as big as the left lane.

I think that was pretty obvious even a couple of months ago, i.e., while Bernie had the organisation and grass routes support and it turned out early, there was probably a badly underestimated or hidden cohort of moderate Dems that pollsters and pundits were missing. Maybe we shouldn't have been scratching our heads about it.

Still, it's hard to fully understand Bernie's early popularity if the first caucasus and primaries were representative of it. But the cracks in Bernie's popularity began to show during Super Tuesday and looked like it took a dive in the SC Primary. I suppose that's because there is a lot of intense dislike for what Bernie was selling among moderates in both parties and the flood gates of that have opened primed by R's who simply can't stand Trump and will vote for any reasonable D candidate - Biden is it despite his shortcomings.