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1) There has not been a really good poll (look at the grades given the polls....the higher grade and more recent polls get more weight) in South Carolina since the Fox News poll.
2) It takes in results as well and results of other polls that are similar to the state that is being polled.
If 538 is right on this, Biden is done.
MUCH earlier than I expected. Even Newt Gingrich was comfortably able to win South Carolina at 40% in 2012.
These odds will probably get worse for Biden after he comes in 4th or 5th in NH.
Trump bashed GM for closing its Lordstown plant. Then gave himself all the credit for securing a new company for the plant. Now his budget would axe the loan program the new company is relying upon.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the majority of the country will vote out a president who is responsible for a booming economy, in favor of a guy who wants to bring it all to a halt.
As a personality, I think Trump absolutely sucks. He's mean, vindictive, petulant, and immature, and those are his good points. But people are working, and jobs are plentiful. He's a real bastard, IMO, but he's got the economy running well. Folks aren't going to vote against their pocketbook. Doesn't matter how delicious Bernie makes Socialism sound.
"What you're doing, speaks so loudly, that I can't hear what you are saying"
I think President Trump has positive momentum right now. Last week was strong for him with the Iowa Caucus disaster, acquittal, and bounce back of the stock market. A lot can change to help or hurt in 8 months. Still haven't seen THAT RECESSION that some predicted in 2020 (or 2019, 2018, 2017, 2016)...
Democrat primary appears to be a mess right now.
Poll numbers, well, we know how 2016 went. Who knows. Wisconsin, Michigan, and Pennsylvania only matter.
Maybe I'm wrong, but I don't think the majority of the country will vote out a president who is responsible for a booming economy, in favor of a guy who wants to bring it all to a halt.
As a personality, I think Trump absolutely sucks. He's mean, vindictive, petulant, and immature, and those are his good points. But people are working, and jobs are plentiful. He's a real bastard, IMO, but he's got the economy running well. Folks aren't going to vote against their pocketbook. Doesn't matter how delicious Bernie makes Socialism sound.
The huge gap between people who are happy with the economy and people who are happy with TRUMP demonstrates that a lot of people don't think Trump is responsible for the economy. At least not the sole, single-handed credit that he insists he receive. Give those people an alternative that doesn't look like radical change and how many of them would prefer to stick with the braying jackass instead?
First part, correct, Bernie is a riskier pick than Biden. And maybe Amy K (undecided on her). But I still think he has a better chance than Pete. Btw I saw a poll of black voters today and they are losing faith in Biden, without question. But the beneficiary to this point hasn't been Bernie or Pete...it's been Mike Bloomberg, for God's sake
And yes, you're right, whatever good they think Trump might be doing with the economy, they just don't view him as so indispensable that they should overlook ALL the conduct issues. They know he's not wrecking things (though the tariffs have without question muted the effects of the tax cut). But they also are aware he spends more time watching tv and on Twitter than he does managing economic anything.
The DNC convention will be an interesting mud wrestling match.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time
At this point, I'm more inclined to think Bloomberg is the better bet than Biden. Neither is a good bet, but I think Biden is done. This primary schedule is death for him. His worst two are up front. His anchor primary isn't until the end of the month. By then it's very possible he'll have bled so much support that he'll lose SC.
There are a ton of states out there where the Ds aren't Marxist clowns. Someone can win those. Kloubachar and Mayor Pete are waiting for Biden's dying carcass to stop twitching. But, as soon as it does, Bloomberg is in. And it's a 3-way race for the non-clownshow vote.
I think it's still too early to make a strong prediction, but, man, right now I'd pick Bernie. Right now I see no reason why the Ds won't continue to desperately try to snatch defeat from the jaws of certain victory.
Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]? Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.
It seems like a virtually sure thing that the DNC will be shaken up and the primary schedule redone after this year. The days of candidates traipsing for a year across every pocket of Iowa are over.
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