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  • I read a very good article yesterday (it's pay walled) about the emerging tension between two pandemic schools of thought. On one side are those that argue that in the face of a new "surge" in case numbers the West needs to be more like China, lock things down and drop the number of new cases cases to near zero before reopening then managing outbreaks selectively. On the other side are those that argue the social and economic costs of doing that at this point are too high. Note that China did not have to deal with social costs. So, that argument is not exactly comparing apples to apples.

    I don't think there is any question that, at least in the EU and the US, that rising case numbers today are a result of failing to stamp out the virus early on and in both cases, the resurgence is a result of relaxed mitigation measures and COVID fatigue that results in push-back against governments imposing more social and economic restrictions. Does it follow then that defeating the virus requires imposition of lock-downs similar to China's? One can argue that will achieve the desired result and experts are correctly arguing that it can.

    IMO, we're past the point where it makes sense to impose a China style, lock down approach to the virus in the US. The reason for that is one of practicality. Moreover, there are other, more practical responses available given the current circumstances in the US. Those involve a substantial increase in testing and developing the infrastructure to trace and isolate. My view is that this has to be done at the federal level and contrary to my belief in general that states are primary, this is a unique situation requiring a national response. It is not too late. That it can be done, without a renewed China style lock-down, is also one of the reasons I'm voting for Biden who has clearly outlined this exact strategy.

    BTW, Biden held serve last night.
    Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time

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    • Big Tech hilariously censors Babylon Bee for making a Monty Python joke: https://www.theamericanconservative....s-babylon-bee/

      What's even funnier is that Big Tech reviewed the article and stood by their decision. Because, well, it made fun of Ds.

      And, of course, Big Tech refuses to show the documentary on the killing of Michael Brown produced by an AA filmmaker because, well, it doesn't fit the narrative.

      Nothing to see here.
      Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
      Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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      • ...
        Attached Files
        Shut the fuck up Donny!

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        • .....
          Attached Files
          Shut the fuck up Donny!

          Comment


          • ...remember Hunter...half goes to "The Big Guy"...
            Attached Files
            Shut the fuck up Donny!

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            • FWIW, the Wall Street Journal has a story posted right after the debate that they have reviewed all of the "Bobulinski emails" AND obtained the corporate records for this supposed business venture with Hunter. Joe Biden wasn't involved in any capacity. And at any rate the venture never actually concluded any deals in China or received a penny.

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              • Hey, PDJT never actually fired Mueller (or did lots of shit he blathered about). But, you know, IMPEACH!
                Dan Patrick: What was your reaction to [Urban Meyer being hired]?
                Brady Hoke: You know.....not....good.

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                • It was a PERFECT CALL

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                  • US Embassy in Turkey is warning of credible threats to kidnap Americans and attack the Consulate General in Istanbul

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                    • Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
                      I read a very good article yesterday (it's pay walled) about the emerging tension between two pandemic schools of thought. On one side are those that argue that in the face of a new "surge" in case numbers the West needs to be more like China, lock things down and drop the number of new cases cases to near zero before reopening then managing outbreaks selectively. On the other side are those that argue the social and economic costs of doing that at this point are too high. Note that China did not have to deal with social costs. So, that argument is not exactly comparing apples to apples.

                      I don't think there is any question that, at least in the EU and the US, that rising case numbers today are a result of failing to stamp out the virus early on and in both cases, the resurgence is a result of relaxed mitigation measures and COVID fatigue that results in push-back against governments imposing more social and economic restrictions. Does it follow then that defeating the virus requires imposition of lock-downs similar to China's? One can argue that will achieve the desired result and experts are correctly arguing that it can.

                      IMO, we're past the point where it makes sense to impose a China style, lock down approach to the virus in the US. The reason for that is one of practicality. Moreover, there are other, more practical responses available given the current circumstances in the US. Those involve a substantial increase in testing and developing the infrastructure to trace and isolate. My view is that this has to be done at the federal level and contrary to my belief in general that states are primary, this is a unique situation requiring a national response. It is not too late. That it can be done, without a renewed China style lock-down, is also one of the reasons I'm voting for Biden who has clearly outlined this exact strategy.

                      BTW, Biden held serve last night.
                      The US reported 77,000 new cases yesterday, a new record high. Without knowing the demographics of who is driving the latest surge (college students?) it's obviously impossible to say how many of those are legitimately "at risk". And we've made enough significant advancements in diagnosing and treating the disease that mortality after hospitalization may be down as much as 2/3. But still...it's pretty discouraging that we're already hitting record levels at the start of flu season.

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                      • Even if you go into a China-style lockdown, you won't stamp out the virus. Spain did pretty much that and once they started to reopen, they got hit again.

                        Here's Spain's case curve.

                        Spain.png

                        I don't know why they have blank days followed by double case days, but if you smooth those out, they are now past their peak case rate back in March.

                        In Spain, you literally could not leave your house for anything but groceries. The cops could stop you on the street and you had to show your grocery receipt. It was a Draconian lockdown. And yet, surprisingly enough, they did not make the virus go completely extinct. No lockdown ever will. The idea that there was some magic bullet that would have made the virus go away right off the bat so that we could be back to normal by now is nonsense. The virus is here with us until we get a vaccine or we achieve herd immunity. And I don't expect a legitimate vaccine to be here for at least another year -- it might be never. I don't want to walk around with half of my face covered and see all of my fellow human beings' faces half covered for much longer. Nor do I want young kids to miss out on good schooling and other social activities that all of us in this forum had the opportunity to pursue as young men. Our society is already feeling isolated enough.

                        To say nothing of all of the people in the restaurant, travel, and entertainment businesses that have been laid off and will continue to lose their jobs.

                        If you look at the case curves for Germany, Italy, the UK, and France, you will see pretty much the same shape.
                        Last edited by Hannibal; October 23, 2020, 08:24 AM.

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                        • Blank day followed by a double day is probably because they don't report anything on sundays or on weekends. There's a number of states here in the US that are like that (I think Michigan switched to that style of reporting recently). Even the states that still do reports over the weekends pretty much all see dramatic drops on Sunday/Monday then bounce back on Tuesday/Wednesday. That irregular manner of reporting cases, along with the fact a test result from 3 weeks ago might not get sent to the Health Dept until today, makes the 7-day rolling average the most useful measure. Maybe even a 14-day average.
                          Last edited by Dr. Strangelove; October 23, 2020, 08:19 AM.

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                          • Well the fact we've been "flattening the curve" for over 6 months now instead of letting the virus run its natural course plus ramped up testing explains the case counts. The death rate...even though exaggerated is still extremely low. Its now what...Day 200 of 15 days of flattening the curve?

                            Absurd response to this.

                            Absurd.
                            Shut the fuck up Donny!

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                            • A rare loss for the Texas GOP at the state Supreme Court.

                              Texas Supreme Court refuses to shut down Harris County's drive-thru voting sites as the Texas Republicans were demanding.

                              EDIT: Btw, in case anyone was wondering, all 9 justices on the Texas Supreme Court are Republicans.

                              https://www.foxnews.com/us/texas-sup...-harris-county
                              Last edited by Dr. Strangelove; October 23, 2020, 08:54 AM.

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                              • In case you were wondering...STFU...
                                Shut the fuck up Donny!

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