Miscellaneous And Off Topic Subjects

[THE_WIZARD_]

Let's buy some more dirty oil from that beacon of humanity...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Trump was spot on ditching the nuclear deal with those rag-heads. Then we have Biden and Maron trying to revive them. Hey, why don't we just deal with them like Germany insisted we learn to live and deal with Putin's Russia. I didn't much care for DJT for reasons well aired here. But nationally and internationally democracies are being weakened by this incremental encroachment by the left on critical institutions of western governments.

[THE_WIZARD_]

Venezuela, Iran...let's pad the pockets of these maniacs and buy dirty oil...way to go Jackie Brandon!

[crashcourse]

still say we had the most to gain from that pipeline sabatoge and really were the only ones that could have pulled something like that off in 4 separate locations undetected--we had a fairly big presence ce there earlier in the month . Have to believe russia would sabotage their own moneymaker--all they need to do is shut it off from there end--why blow up something that brings you millions a year from germany/europe If ukraine did it they did it with our immense help. very doubtful any greenies could pull something off like that. Nato has gotta be pissed if it comes out we had anything to do with sabotaging that pipeline

[THE_WIZARD_]

I think it was Bond...James Bond...

[THE_WIZARD_]

...regardless...I'm sure some documents at Mar-A-Lago will surface to explain it...

[Jeff Buchanan]

Ukraine: The link below is probably the most detailed and revealing description of the dismantling of the Russian army in Ukraine both as a result of the Ukrainian armed forces and the result of the insistence by Vladamir Putin that his poorly equipped and manned forces achieve objectives completely out of their reach. The reality of that is being slowly revealed by a limited number of reports, mostly coming from well informed organizations like the American Enterprise Institution (AEI), Institute for the Study of War (ISW) that painstakingly collect, analyse and write about the war in Ukraine. None of this is paywalled:

https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...t-september-28

Another absolutely damning report on what's going on inside the Russian army was published by the NYTs yesterday evening. It discloses information collected by Ukrainian (and probably US) intelligence in the weeks following the abandonment of Putin's goal of seizing Kiev. The basis of the disclosures are verbatim transcripts of cell phone calls between Russian soldiers, including officers, between them and their families or girlfriends/boyfriends. There is confirmation of orders to kill civilians, commission of war crimes, that are consistent with discoveries of 100s of bodies in locations that Russians had abandoned, most were tortured and shot in the head. Some in shallow graves, most just lying in the streets rotting. There are admissions of looting Ukrainians of money and property by Russian soldiers. The transcripts are shocking. There's the possibility that these cell-phone transcripts are manufactured by Ukrainian propagandists but the authors of the NYTs piece have painstakingly used multiple sources to validate the accuracy of the transcripts. It's paywalled buy here's the link anyway:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2022/09/28/world/europe/russian-soldiers-phone-calls-ukraine.html

Together these two reports paint a picture of disarray within severely degraded Russian forces being forced to fight a war Putin has taken command of from the Kremlin and utterly failed to logistically support. That shit never works and has been proven over and over in history that centralized control of a force fighting to seize territory will not succeed in doing so. It's bad when a small group of insider soldiers do it. Catastrophic when a leader with no military experience and far removed from the battle space tries to command the operation at the srategic and tactical levels. You can read, in detail, of what the end result of this kind of leadership fiasco at the tactical platoon, company and regimental level in the detailed ISW reports I read every day and the one that is linked to above that is especially detailed and revealing.

[Jeff Buchanan]

still say we had the most to gain from that pipeline sabatoge and really were the only ones that could have pulled something like that off in 4 separate locations undetected--we had a fairly big presence ce there earlier in the month . Have to believe russia would sabotage their own moneymaker--all they need to do is shut it off from there end--why blow up something that brings you millions a year from germany/europe If ukraine did it they did it with our immense help. very doubtful any greenies could pull something off like that. Nato has gotta be pissed if it comes out we had anything to do with sabotaging that pipeline

I think the US is on the list of potential perps. One of the most important events that points in that direction is that over the last 48h, both US and European sources are holding off on blaming Russia claiming it is too early to tell. Right after the explosions were reported, it looked to me like it was Russia behind it but there are too many other factors for or against an agency within a specific government pulling this off.

Per the assessments I posted above, it looks like Russia and possibly Putin along with it are going to lose over Putin's Ukraine adventure. It's not going to happen next week or next month, but, it's going to happen at some not too distant point. The west gains by convincingly demonstrating it can and will shut down Putin's ability to leverage LNG deliveries to Europe as a hybrid weapon of war. Part of Norstream can still deliver gas but, it may not be coincidental that the severe damage done to Nordstream happened on the same day that a new pipeline - the Norway-Poland Pipeline - basically showing Euorpe is fully capable of supporting its energy needs without Russia. If the west is behind the Norstream explosions, it is, almost a counterintuitive, strategic coup d'gras delivered to Putin and his Russia

https://www.france24.com/en/tv-shows/business-daily/20220927-norway-poland-open-new-gas-pipeline-as-nord-stream-leaks

All total, recent events of the last weeks show Russia is being further isolated on the global stage. Putin's military forces, although they still must be taken seriously, are severely degraded and it's combat capabilities against any future NATO engagement have to be revised downward. Of course, Putin still has the nuclear button on his desk top. This is where even the questionable functionality of MAD as a deterrent to the use of nukes either tactically, which would probably cause escalation to the strategic level, is in play. My take is that Putin is running out of options as the hybrid weaponization of energy supplies has taken a hit albeit it is way too early for a victory lap.

[Dr. Strangelove]

still say we had the most to gain from that pipeline sabatoge and really were the only ones that could have pulled something like that off in 4 separate locations undetected--we had a fairly big presence ce there earlier in the month . Have to believe russia would sabotage their own moneymaker--all they need to do is shut it off from there end--why blow up something that brings you millions a year from germany/europe If ukraine did it they did it with our immense help. very doubtful any greenies could pull something off like that. Nato has gotta be pissed if it comes out we had anything to do with sabotaging that pipeline

I saw someone mention one country that nobody's really pointing at (yet): Poland. They're both very hostile to Russia and have been pissed at Germany for a while over the NordStream lines.

[crashcourse]

had to be a nato country or ukraine with total us help. i dont know who has underwater drones or teams of navy seal caliber divers to set off e simultaneous explosions supposely 100s of pounds worth ot TNT.

who benefits

ukraine
usa

[Dr. Strangelove]

[THE_WIZARD_]

motivating

[Jeff Buchanan]

Dagestan is a republic of the Russian Federation - a reluctant one that Putin has his thumb over the political leadership. However, Chechnya, near by, was crushed when they said they wanted to be free of Russia. So, I'm sure, the guy in that video, after it went viral, got a call from Vlad that wasn't a friendly one.

Dagastan is the country where a few days ago, a guy walked into a Russian army recruitment office and shot the commander in the head. National Gurad troops were sent to Dagastan after that and protesters were threatened with jail and large fines.

Political leadership has been vocally opposed to Russia's, what they claim, is disproportionate conscription of muslim minorities to fight in Ukraine. I'm not sure this is as big of a deal than much smaller protests in big cities such as St. Petersburg. Still, it's indicative of increased social discontent among Russian Federation citizens following Putin's mobilization decree. If the west's reporting is at all correct, that "overwhelming majority" of Russians that support Putin's war in Russia is taking a hit.

Whether this is the start of a movement to unseat Putin among the covert but probably large anti Putin groups is wishful thinking at this point. Russia watchers think he is secure in his presidency by virtue of the last decade of building a force of goons around him that are more concerned with protecting their own self interests, most of which are bestowed by Putin, than the prospects of the loss of said benefits if they get behind any movements to remove him. The Russian intelligentsia elites are basically disinterested in what's going on in Ukraine. When the supermarket shelves become empty of Beluga Caviar then, they might start grumbling. That's a ways off and Putin's propaganda machine inside Russia is pretty good at obfuscating the real shit-storm he's dealing with in Ukraine.

[lineygoblue]

top of mind .... step in time ... top of mind ... step in time ...

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[Dr. Strangelove]

In about an hour Putin's supposed to give a speech announcing the annexation of the 4 oblasts where they held sham referenda. At the same time the Russian stronghold of Lyman in northern Donetsk is reported to be totally surrounded with thousands of Russian troops and their allies trapped.

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