Originally posted by Obi-Jon
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The pregnant question is whether or not the Taliban government will support terrorist tactics for political gain v. the West. I think the potential for that is high. While we tend to label the Afghanis as incompetent organizers of game changing ops, it doesn't take much these days to carry out devastating attacks - on infrastructure, inside sports venues, the list is long.
That the Chinese and Russians are already engaging the Taliban is troublesome for the sole reason that Putin is a first class agitator and disruptor. Anyone doubt that? The Chinese settling in to Bagram airbase as a central operational point to spread their sleazy influence among a population of Afghanis that really only care about tribal well being and their own pockets is ripe for Chinese influence. Then, of course, we have the emerging ISIS-K and a rebounding Al Q. Both, and more, completely capable of mounting and executing world wide terror attacks that the Taliban can and will leverage to their advantage to gain recognition and funding.
One can argue, "who cares" about what the Chinese do or what the Taliban might do. It matters in that region. The publicly stated strategic goal for the US there ought to involve stabilizing the region by enlisting Arab powers to do that. Trump had this policy spot on. Right now the whole of the ME is a disaster of crushed economies and an impoverished, often starving population trying to escape without anywhere to go. We shouldn't give a rat's ass about authoritarians or only dealing with countries that promote democratic principals and rights.
Dark strategic goals should be to cut off money flow to the hands of organizers even and especially the low level ones. This seems to have worked at some level over the last decade. Identify the leadership among terrorist groups and kill them and their relatives - sounds gruesome. War is gruesome. That's going to be the guy 4 or 5 down from the Mullahs who conceive and order a terror op. It seems we have the technology to at least be good if not great at this. I thought finding and killing the alleged dude that planned the attack at the Kabul airport telling. It's doable. Not having boots on the ground hurts that sort of op but OTH tech is probably pretty damn good.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time
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Originally posted by Kapture1 View Post
You can catch Covid from vaccinated people.
So, sure, you can Catch COVID from the vaccinated but spread, reducing it being the ultimate goal at present as I argue above, is damped. The facts on the ground unquestionably demonstrate this.Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Would you like me to go through the numbers here? No? Suffice it to say, recent studies (I read all three) I wrote about yesterday demonstrate that the viral load obtained from samples of patients experiencing a breakthrough infection with Delta, once thought to be higher than those infected with SARS2 A, are actually significantly lower. That reduces the likelihood of aersol transmission.
So, sure, you can Catch COVID from the vaccinated but spread, reducing it being the ultimate goal at present as I argue above, is damped. The facts on the ground unquestionably demonstrate this.
ok, well my point about catching Covid from a vaccinated person is still, currently, reality.
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Originally posted by Hannibal View PostI don't care about the unvaccinated. Period. If the age vulnerability profile of Covid-19 was different, then I would feel differently because children cannot make judgements like we can, but since the victims are still overwhelmingly in the 65+ range, that's not an issue. By now, if you have a TV or you have stepped out of your house, then you have been bombarded with advertisements and propaganda telling you to get vaccinated. We have reached peak vaccine propaganda. There is no more encouragement to be done. We might get a slow trickle of people as employers increasingly require vaccines, but that's it.
I'm not getting a booster unless somebody can convince me that I need it for my own safety.
There's been a distinct shift in the mean age groups away from 65+ to the 35 to 64 groups. This is noticeable at the link during the current increase in COVID infections (scroll down to the interactive chart). It has taken a lot of shifting to move the median age down as at the start of the pandemic, you are right, deaths were predominantly in the 65+ group and more distinctly over 70. No more. If you're under 64 your more at risk now than you were at the start of this thing.
From the chart, the age group from 1-64 has experienced an increasing number of deaths in the current circumstance compared to that same group in April, 2020 and two other surges that followed. It's not even close.
I'll acknowledge the risk of death remains low. Fine, I get that sort of risk assessment. OTH were not talking deaths here, we're talking dampening spread of the virus by getting vaccinated so that idiots in government don't over react to the meaningless new case numbers metric.
Boosters potentially will decrease spread. Acknowledged we don't know for sure but I do trust the Israeli experience with waning protection from infection and hence increased spread. It's a good example that would apply in the US SE population wise. If you live in the NE where viral prevalence is low, maybe not.
Mission to CFB's National Championship accomplished. JH chased Saban from Alabama and caused Day, at the point of the OSU AD's gun, to make major changes to his staff just to beat Michigan. Love it. It's Moore!!!! time
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Would this data make you feel differently?
There's been a distinct shift in the mean age groups away from 65+ to the 35 to 64 groups. This is noticeable at the link during the current increase in COVID infections (scroll down to the interactive chart). It has taken a lot of shifting to move the median age down as at the start of the pandemic, you are right, deaths were predominantly in the 65+ group and more distinctly over 70. No more. If you're under 64 your more at risk now than you were at the start of this thing.
From the chart, the age group from 1-64 has experienced an increasing number of deaths in the current circumstance compared to that same group in April, 2020 and two other surges that followed. It's not even close.
I'll acknowledge the risk of death remains low. Fine, I get that sort of risk assessment. OTH were not talking deaths here, we're talking dampening spread of the virus by getting vaccinated so that idiots in government don't over react to the meaningless new case numbers metric.
Boosters potentially will decrease spread. Acknowledged we don't know for sure but I do trust the Israeli experience with waning protection from infection and hence increased spread. It's a good example that would apply in the US SE population wise. If you live in the NE where viral prevalence is low, maybe not.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#SexAndAge
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Originally posted by Jeff Buchanan View Post
Would this data make you feel differently?
There's been a distinct shift in the mean age groups away from 65+ to the 35 to 64 groups. This is noticeable at the link during the current increase in COVID infections (scroll down to the interactive chart). It has taken a lot of shifting to move the median age down as at the start of the pandemic, you are right, deaths were predominantly in the 65+ group and more distinctly over 70. No more. If you're under 64 your more at risk now than you were at the start of this thing.
From the chart, the age group from 1-64 has experienced an increasing number of deaths in the current circumstance compared to that same group in April, 2020 and two other surges that followed. It's not even close.
I'll acknowledge the risk of death remains low. Fine, I get that sort of risk assessment. OTH were not talking deaths here, we're talking dampening spread of the virus by getting vaccinated so that idiots in government don't over react to the meaningless new case numbers metric.
Boosters potentially will decrease spread. Acknowledged we don't know for sure but I do trust the Israeli experience with waning protection from infection and hence increased spread. It's a good example that would apply in the US SE population wise. If you live in the NE where viral prevalence is low, maybe not.
https://www.cdc.gov/nchs/nvss/vsrr/c....htm#SexAndAge
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Here is the latest provisional data from the CDC, for the week of 8/28:
Death distribution by age group:
85+: 14.6%
75-84: 22.6%
65-74: 23.0%
That's 60.2% from the population that is, by and large, not in the work force, and definitely not in school. Also the most vaccinated age groups. Very important to remember that when you are talking about imposing mask mandates on everyone of all ages.
Here is the school age population:
Under 1 year: 0.000%
1-4 years: 0.0000%
5-14 years: .3%
15-24 years: .5%
There you have it. The pre-school and school age population, more or less through grad school, still accounts for less than 1% of the deaths from Covid for the most recent week for which data exists. The age group not eligible for the vaccine (12 and under) accounts for no more than .3% of the deaths.Last edited by Hannibal; September 8, 2021, 11:59 AM.
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